Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were

[rangerrebew]

Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were


by Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 - 12:08

Authored by Robert Wenzel via TargetLiberty.com,

The dotted line on the chart below indicates the current trend of beds needed for COVID-19 in New York.

At present, only 18,279 are in use.

The professional forecasters all projected that beds would be a multiple of the beds actually needed.

Notice not one model came in under the actual number.

These are all professional fearmongers who alarmed the country about a virus that appears to be in line with a severe flu season.
 

Receive a daily recap featuring a curated list of must-read stories.

Can they really be that incompetent?

Some may be but I called the evil Tony Fauci out a month ago on his phony projections: Why is Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Lying to Congress and the American People?

He knows better.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=mixi.media&utm_campaign=zerohedge

[jmyrlefuller]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Look At How Ridiculously Zerohedge Is Saying Mission Accomplished

[PeteS in CA]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

[musiclady]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

That is what has made the difference.

Lives have been saved. 

[musiclady]

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

It’s disturbing to see how much of that is going around.....

[PeteS in CA]

It’s disturbing to see how much of that is going around.....

IMO, both: stupidly careless use of computer models (seriously, the modelers should inform their hearers about the wild-ass guesses, or simply STHU); CT-spinning.

[Cyber Liberty]

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

"CT Devotee?"

[roamer_1]

Ridiculously wrong is an understatement.

2M predicted dead.
20k actual.

 

[Hoodat]

Ridiculously wrong is an understatement.

2M predicted dead.
20k actual.

 

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

[ChemEngrMBA]

Moreover, hospitals are financially rewarded for reporting Covid cases, both admitted, treated with respirators, and when they are deceased, often an autopsy is not done and the cause of death can be questionable, so says a Montana physician with a link on my website:
http://CovidFacts.blogspot.com]
[url]http://CovidFacts.blogspot.com[/url]

The Seattle military hospital set up to take the expected huge influx of cases closed without accepting a single one.    Op Cit

[roamer_1]

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

Yeah. That's another thing: It's gonna require hiding in your homes for maybe even a year!!!!
 

REALITY:

I predict, like all seasonal viruses, they will be hard pressed to stretch this till June.

 

[jmyrlefuller]

Yeah. That's another thing: It's gonna require hiding in your homes for maybe even a year!!!!
 

REALITY:

I predict, like all seasonal viruses, they will be hard pressed to stretch this till June.

 

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

[roamer_1]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

Don't worry... Globull warming is gonna kill you anyway. Just look at the models. 

[Cyber Liberty]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

This may already be the "second wave."  I know several people in Cali that swear they had this bug in December-January, which is why they're not dropping like New Yorkers there.  I think we caught it ourselves when we visited in December...we came home to AZ and spent the better part of a week getting over it.  The symptoms were very unusual, and we thought it was just a new flu.

[Smokin Joe]

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

Yep. And if we aren't careful, restrictions will be lifted too early, and we'll have a second and even worse round.

[PeteS in CA]

This may already be the "second wave."  I know several people in Cali that swear they had this bug in December-January, which is why they're not dropping like New Yorkers there.  I think we caught it ourselves when we visited in December...we came home to AZ and spent the better part of a week getting over it.  The symptoms were very unusual, and we thought it was just a new flu.

That is a current theory being batted about. My daughter who was in Xining, China at the time had a particularly unpleasant "bug" in December - a couple of weeks, IIRC - and thinks it could have been this coronavirus. The problem with the theory is that AFAIK there wasn't a corresponding spike in deaths. The earlier-than-thought theory could probably, to some degree, be tested by people like you or my daughter being tested to see if you have the antibodies.

[Smokin Joe]

That is a current theory being batted about. My daughter who was in Xining, China at the time had a particularly unpleasant "bug" in December - a couple of weeks, IIRC - and thinks it could have been this coronavirus. The problem with the theory is that AFAIK there wasn't a corresponding spike in deaths. The earlier-than-thought theory could probably, to some degree, be tested by people like you or my daughter being tested to see if you have the antibodies.

If you look up, for example, the 1918 flu or other pandemics, you find there is often a mutation to more lethal forms in the works. The second wave of the 1918 Flu was the worst.
That may have been due to mutations in the pathogen, or simply because people let their guard down thinking the disease had run its course and was over. Not until after the third wave did the pandemic abate, and even now, H1N1 is cause for concern.

[jmyrlefuller]

If you look up, for example, the 1918 flu or other pandemics, you find there is often a mutation to more lethal forms in the works. The second wave of the 1918 Flu was the worst.

As far as that "second wave" is concerned, realize that that second wave had a direct cause: the winding down of World War I bringing soldiers back home to their home countries. The war zone was a breeding ground for disease.

We do not have the same sort of mass migration event happening this time around—which, along with this being not quite as seasonally variable of a virus as some other bugs, leads me to suspect there won't be much of a second wave if there is one.

[Smokin Joe]

As far as that "second wave" is concerned, realize that that second wave had a direct cause: the winding down of World War I bringing soldiers back home to their home countries. The war zone was a breeding ground for disease.

We do not have the same sort of mass migration event happening this time around—which, along with this being not quite as seasonally variable of a virus as some other bugs, leads me to suspect there won't be much of a second wave if there is one.

Well, I'd wager a lot of the bug was passed around on troop ships and trains coming home, but it is believed that that, too, had its origins in China.

[ChemEngrMBA]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

"Public education is a socialist monopoly, a real one." - Milton Friedman

[Idiot]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1
I guarantee you I want no part of this virus.

[Hoodat]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

Julianne Malveaux is a despicable person.  This is what she said about Clarence Thomas:

“You know, I hope his wife feeds him lots of eggs and butter and he dies early like many black men do, of heart disease.”

[Cyber Liberty]

Julianne Malveaux is a despicable person.  This is what she said about Clarence Thomas:

“You know, I hope his wife feeds him lots of eggs and butter and he dies early like many black men do, of heart disease.”

And uglier than a mud fence, to boot.  I'm not gonna risk crashing TBR by posting a picture....

[Smokin Joe]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

"Public education is a socialist monopoly, a real one." - Milton Friedman

That's funny right there, considering it was Made in China.

[DB]

That is a current theory being batted about. My daughter who was in Xining, China at the time had a particularly unpleasant "bug" in December - a couple of weeks, IIRC - and thinks it could have been this coronavirus. The problem with the theory is that AFAIK there wasn't a corresponding spike in deaths. The earlier-than-thought theory could probably, to some degree, be tested by people like you or my daughter being tested to see if you have the antibodies.

The fact that there wasn't an apparent death spike in December along with overloaded hospitals is a strong argument that it wasn't this strain of coronvirus.

[Smokin Joe]

The fact that there wasn't an apparent death spike in December along with overloaded hospitals is a strong argument that it wasn't this strain of coronvirus.

Maybe. It depends on the populations infected, and then there is a delay of up to two weeks for onset. Before the Coronavirus was acknowledged and tests were available, the question also arises of how many who died of COVID-19 or related complications were credited for having died of the underlying medical conditions they likely presented with?  We may be missing the early end of the curve, and the CCP was trying to cover up the virus early on as well.

[Cyber Liberty]

The fact that there wasn't an apparent death spike in December along with overloaded hospitals is a strong argument that it wasn't this strain of coronvirus.

I would not rely on reports from China about any deaths recorded in December, there may well have been a spike.  They have been, to put it kindly, wildly inaccurate in their stats. 

[Hoodat]

The fact that there wasn't an apparent death spike in December along with overloaded hospitals is a strong argument that it wasn't this strain of coronvirus.

Compared to what?  December 2018?  How does March 2020 compare to March 2019?  Also, how will March 2021 compare to March 2019?  If there is a rise this year, I expect a fall next year.

[DB]

I would not rely on reports from China about any deaths recorded in December, there may well have been a spike.  They have been, to put it kindly, wildly inaccurate in their stats.

I'm talking about a spike in California where a number of people think they caught this virus back in December. I give little value to China's numbers.

[Smokin Joe]

I'm talking about a spike in California where a number of people think they caught this virus back in December. I give little value to China's numbers.

We don't know how many nonlethal cases there have been, where or when. That denominator has been missing from the whole assessment of mortality from the beginning.

[DB]

Maybe. It depends on the populations infected, and then there is a delay of up to two weeks for onset. Before the Coronavirus was acknowledged and tests were available, the question also arises of how many who died of COVID-19 or related complications were credited for having died of the underlying medical conditions they likely presented with?  We may be missing the early end of the curve, and the CCP was trying to cover up the virus early on as well.

Wherever this virus has gone unchecked the hospitals fill up quickly. I'm not aware of any run on hospital space in December of last year in California. The theory being that California had an early go at the virus and is why they didn't have high numbers like NY over the last couple of months. My point being, if the virus (at least the strain that is ravaging NY) had arrived in California back in December there would be evidence of it by the hospitals being overrun along with a higher number of deaths than usual.

[DB]

We don't know how many nonlethal cases there have been, where or when. That denominator has been missing from the whole assessment of mortality from the beginning.

I agree with that. But nevertheless a small percentage of those infected have a bad reaction requiring hospital care. That small percentage is still easily large enough to overrun the hospitals if it had swept through in December. Especially in a state with 40 million people.

[Smokin Joe]

Wherever this virus has gone unchecked the hospitals fill up quickly. I'm not aware of any run on hospital space in December of last year in California. The theory being that California had an early go at the virus and is why they didn't have high numbers like NY over the last couple of months. My point being, if the virus (at least the strain that is ravaging NY) had arrived in California back in December there would be evidence of it by the hospitals being overrun along with a higher number of deaths than usual.

I think there are other factors. I do not think the California spike (if there was one, hospitalized or not) was as high. California is car culture, not subway culture. individual space reigns in Cali, Shared space in NYC: Elevators, subways, transit buses and trains, taxicabs (shared space, just serially), heavy sidewalks, crowds. stairwells.

I think the opportunity for transmission in NYC is multiples what it is in California.

3700 deaths were summarily added to the death toll in NYC, with no evidence of the virus being involved. ("presumed")

Other environmental factors may apply.

We know how many dead there are in NYC (well sorta, the number is inflated), but not how many got well, were asymptomatic, or had mild cases.

[DB]

I think there are other factors. I do not think the California spike (if there was one, hospitalized or not) was as high. California is car culture, not subway culture. individual space reigns in Cali, Shared space in NYC: Elevators, subways, transit buses and trains, taxicabs (shared space, just serially), heavy sidewalks, crowds. stairwells.

I think the opportunity for transmission in NYC is multiples what it is in California.

3700 deaths were summarily added to the death toll in NYC, with no evidence of the virus being involved. ("presumed")

Other environmental factors may apply.

We know how many dead there are in NYC (well sorta, the number is inflated), but not how many got well, were asymptomatic, or had mild cases.

That is all true. But that also contradicts the theory that it already passed through California providing herd immunity. If it passed through California enough to provide herd immunity millions (> 15 million) of people would have had to have gotten it. There's no indication that is the case at all. At least with the same strain that is on the east coast.

Again, my point is that the theory that it already passed through California back in December is flawed for all the reasons stated. It is more likely that the people being further apart and social distancing accounts for the lower numbers there. Not the theory that it already passed through there providing herd immunity. And if all that is true then when the restrictions are lifted the cases of infection are likely to rise substantially because the virus is still around (especially with all the travel in and out of California) and people don't have immunity to it.

Now, perhaps it is possible a different strain passed through California that was significantly milder while still providing immunity to the east coast strain. There was some talk about creating an alternate milder strain purposely infecting people to provide immunity to the bad strain in a paper I posted some days ago. Perhaps nature could have done that all by itself. That will require antibody test evidence to determine.

[Smokin Joe]

That is all true. But that also contradicts the theory that it already passed through California providing herd immunity. If it passed through California enough to provide herd immunity millions (> 15 million) of people would have had to have gotten it. There's no indication that is the case at all. At least with the same strain that is on the east coast.

Again, my point is that the theory that it already passed through California back in December is flawed for all the reasons stated. It is more likely that the people being further apart and social distancing accounts for the lower numbers there. Not the theory that it already passed through there providing herd immunity. And if all that is true then when the restrictions are lifted the cases of infection are likely to rise substantially because the virus is still around (especially with all the travel in and out of California) and people don't have immunity to it.

Now, perhaps it is possible a different strain passed through California that was significantly milder while still providing immunity to the east coast strain. There was some talk about creating an alternate milder strain purposely infecting people to provide immunity to the bad strain in a paper I posted some days ago. Perhaps nature could have done that all by itself. That will require antibody test evidence to determine.

Without antibody tests all but the social factors and population density are speculative. I think that there was less infection in California. The West Coast virus sure seemed lethal enough in close quarters, like nursing homes in Washington, but then, too, there are the underlying medical conditions present in nursing homes that contribute to mortality.
NY's median age is about three years older than California, but still in the 30s.
Bottom line, we need more data.
.

[truth_seeker]

This may already be the "second wave."  I know several people in Cali that swear they had this bug in December-January, which is why they're not dropping like New Yorkers there.  I think we caught it ourselves when we visited in December...we came home to AZ and spent the better part of a week getting over it.  The symptoms were very unusual, and we thought it was just a new flu.

That scenario is widely discussed in SoCal. Separate articles about Santa Clara/NorCal indicate the same.

In my immediate family we think we had something back in Dec-Feb general timeframe.

[Cyber Liberty]

That scenario is widely discussed in SoCal. Separate articles about Santa Clara/NorCal indicate the same.

In my immediate family we think we had something back in Dec-Feb general timeframe.

We visited the OC around then, too.

[ChemEngrMBA]

And uglier than a mud fence, to boot.  I'm not gonna risk crashing TBR by posting a picture....

Ugly Contest:

Julianne Malveaux vs
Maxine Yoogly Waters vs
Average "Feminist" such as, oh Andrea Dworkin

[Cyber Liberty]

Ugly Contest:

Julianne Malveaux vs
Maxine Yoogly Waters vs
Average "Feminist" such as, oh Andrea Dworkin

Rush Limbaugh's Undeniable Truth #24:

"Feminism was established so as to allow unattractive women access to
the mainstream of society."

[GtHawk]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

My personal opinion(which isn't worth a lot), is that with sunshine and the warmer weather finally hitting with spring we are going to see a real drop in infections, just as we have with every flu pandemic or not and so far we still have more flu infections and deaths than Covid - 19 deaths though it's hard to compare since there is a healthy monetary incentive to classify deaths as caused by Covid.

[Smokin Joe]

My personal opinion(which isn't worth a lot), is that with sunshine and the warmer weather finally hitting with spring we are going to see a real drop in infections, just as we have with every flu pandemic or not and so far we still have more flu infections and deaths than Covid - 19 deaths though it's hard to compare since there is a healthy monetary incentive to classify deaths as caused by Covid.

People tend to be outdoors more, not cooped up breathing the same air. Spring is great, open the windows and air the place out...

[DB]

People tend to be outdoors more, not cooped up breathing the same air. Spring is great, open the windows and air the place out...

Most people's vitamin D levels also go up when the sunshine comes.

[Smokin Joe]

Most people's vitamin D levels also go up when the sunshine comes.

Not to mention losing the winter fat...

[Cyber Liberty]

Shit.  Spring Cleaning.

[Smokin Joe]

Shit.  Spring Cleaning.

[txradioguy]

That is what has made the difference.

Lives have been saved.

Not really.  By staying inside we've done a disservice to the population by slowing the spread.  People need to be exposed to it to build up the herd immunity.

All staying inside isolated has done is allow a chance for a second round of this to hit the population and allow the government to force us to stay inside longer and for businesses to stay closed longer.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Not really.  By staying inside we've done a disservice to the population by slowing the spread.  People need to be exposed to it to build up the herd immunity.

All staying inside isolated has done is allow a chance for a second round of this to hit the population and allow the government to force us to stay inside longer and for businesses to stay closed longer.

Excellent.  Then I can go back to blaming President Trump for everything. /sarc
I still think my President saved 10s of thousands of lives by acting when he did.

[txradioguy]

Excellent.  Then I can go back to blaming President Trump for everything. /sarc
I still think my President saved 10s of thousands of lives by acting when he did.

No he didn't.  But then yo'd have blamed Trump regardless.

By the time this is all sussed out we'll find out that the percentage of people that died form the Chinese Virus was at the same level as those that die form the flu every year.

But by then the damage will have been done.

[Right_in_Virginia]

By the time this is all sussed out we'll find out that the percentage of people that died form the Chinese Virus was at the same level as those that die form the flu every year.

But by then the damage will have been done.

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 2,345,633 cases worldwide; 735,287 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 19, 2020.*
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 161,262 deaths reported worldwide; 39,090 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 19, 2020.*
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu