Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were

[rangerrebew]

Look At How Ridiculously Wrong All The COVID-19 Models Were


by Tyler Durden
Sat, 04/11/2020 - 12:08

Authored by Robert Wenzel via TargetLiberty.com,

The dotted line on the chart below indicates the current trend of beds needed for COVID-19 in New York.

At present, only 18,279 are in use.

The professional forecasters all projected that beds would be a multiple of the beds actually needed.

Notice not one model came in under the actual number.

These are all professional fearmongers who alarmed the country about a virus that appears to be in line with a severe flu season.
 

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Can they really be that incompetent?

Some may be but I called the evil Tony Fauci out a month ago on his phony projections: Why is Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Lying to Congress and the American People?

He knows better.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/look-how-ridiculously-wrong-all-covid-19-models-were?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=mixi.media&utm_campaign=zerohedge

[jmyrlefuller]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Look At How Ridiculously Zerohedge Is Saying Mission Accomplished

[PeteS in CA]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

[musiclady]

I was reading a WaPo story, I think last weekend, that talked about how some of the models were vastly underestimating how many people would cooperate with social distancing. The one DC, Maryland and Virginia are using assumed a paltry 31% compliance rate—when empirical evidence suggests much closer to 80%.

That is what has made the difference.

Lives have been saved. 

[musiclady]

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

It’s disturbing to see how much of that is going around.....

[PeteS in CA]

It’s disturbing to see how much of that is going around.....

IMO, both: stupidly careless use of computer models (seriously, the modelers should inform their hearers about the wild-ass guesses, or simply STHU); CT-spinning.

[Cyber Liberty]

Computer models and accounting spreadsheets are as good as the inputs - GIGO. The more inputs to a model that are worst-case guesses, the wilder the results. And as worst-case guess inputs are replaced with realistic approximations, the recalculated results become less wild. Of course, a CT Devotee will see every such change as proof of lying.

"CT Devotee?"

[roamer_1]

Ridiculously wrong is an understatement.

2M predicted dead.
20k actual.

 

[Hoodat]

Ridiculously wrong is an understatement.

2M predicted dead.
20k actual.

 

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

[ChemEngrMBA]

Moreover, hospitals are financially rewarded for reporting Covid cases, both admitted, treated with respirators, and when they are deceased, often an autopsy is not done and the cause of death can be questionable, so says a Montana physician with a link on my website:
http://CovidFacts.blogspot.com]
[url]http://CovidFacts.blogspot.com[/url]

The Seattle military hospital set up to take the expected huge influx of cases closed without accepting a single one.    Op Cit

[roamer_1]

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

Yeah. That's another thing: It's gonna require hiding in your homes for maybe even a year!!!!
 

REALITY:

I predict, like all seasonal viruses, they will be hard pressed to stretch this till June.

 

[jmyrlefuller]

Yeah. That's another thing: It's gonna require hiding in your homes for maybe even a year!!!!
 

REALITY:

I predict, like all seasonal viruses, they will be hard pressed to stretch this till June.

 

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

[roamer_1]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

Don't worry... Globull warming is gonna kill you anyway. Just look at the models. 

[Cyber Liberty]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

This may already be the "second wave."  I know several people in Cali that swear they had this bug in December-January, which is why they're not dropping like New Yorkers there.  I think we caught it ourselves when we visited in December...we came home to AZ and spent the better part of a week getting over it.  The symptoms were very unusual, and we thought it was just a new flu.

[Smokin Joe]

But they'll still try to drag this out to November.

Yep. And if we aren't careful, restrictions will be lifted too early, and we'll have a second and even worse round.

[PeteS in CA]

This may already be the "second wave."  I know several people in Cali that swear they had this bug in December-January, which is why they're not dropping like New Yorkers there.  I think we caught it ourselves when we visited in December...we came home to AZ and spent the better part of a week getting over it.  The symptoms were very unusual, and we thought it was just a new flu.

That is a current theory being batted about. My daughter who was in Xining, China at the time had a particularly unpleasant "bug" in December - a couple of weeks, IIRC - and thinks it could have been this coronavirus. The problem with the theory is that AFAIK there wasn't a corresponding spike in deaths. The earlier-than-thought theory could probably, to some degree, be tested by people like you or my daughter being tested to see if you have the antibodies.

[Smokin Joe]

That is a current theory being batted about. My daughter who was in Xining, China at the time had a particularly unpleasant "bug" in December - a couple of weeks, IIRC - and thinks it could have been this coronavirus. The problem with the theory is that AFAIK there wasn't a corresponding spike in deaths. The earlier-than-thought theory could probably, to some degree, be tested by people like you or my daughter being tested to see if you have the antibodies.

If you look up, for example, the 1918 flu or other pandemics, you find there is often a mutation to more lethal forms in the works. The second wave of the 1918 Flu was the worst.
That may have been due to mutations in the pathogen, or simply because people let their guard down thinking the disease had run its course and was over. Not until after the third wave did the pandemic abate, and even now, H1N1 is cause for concern.

[jmyrlefuller]

If you look up, for example, the 1918 flu or other pandemics, you find there is often a mutation to more lethal forms in the works. The second wave of the 1918 Flu was the worst.

As far as that "second wave" is concerned, realize that that second wave had a direct cause: the winding down of World War I bringing soldiers back home to their home countries. The war zone was a breeding ground for disease.

We do not have the same sort of mass migration event happening this time around—which, along with this being not quite as seasonally variable of a virus as some other bugs, leads me to suspect there won't be much of a second wave if there is one.

[Smokin Joe]

As far as that "second wave" is concerned, realize that that second wave had a direct cause: the winding down of World War I bringing soldiers back home to their home countries. The war zone was a breeding ground for disease.

We do not have the same sort of mass migration event happening this time around—which, along with this being not quite as seasonally variable of a virus as some other bugs, leads me to suspect there won't be much of a second wave if there is one.

Well, I'd wager a lot of the bug was passed around on troop ships and trains coming home, but it is believed that that, too, had its origins in China.

[ChemEngrMBA]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

"Public education is a socialist monopoly, a real one." - Milton Friedman

[Idiot]

But... but... there could be a second wave! Be afraid! Be very afraid!!!!1

Error 404 (Not Found)!!1
I guarantee you I want no part of this virus.

[Hoodat]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

Julianne Malveaux is a despicable person.  This is what she said about Clarence Thomas:

“You know, I hope his wife feeds him lots of eggs and butter and he dies early like many black men do, of heart disease.”

[Cyber Liberty]

Julianne Malveaux is a despicable person.  This is what she said about Clarence Thomas:

“You know, I hope his wife feeds him lots of eggs and butter and he dies early like many black men do, of heart disease.”

And uglier than a mud fence, to boot.  I'm not gonna risk crashing TBR by posting a picture....

[Smokin Joe]

There is a female black PhD at the NIH who is claiming that the Covid 19 panic targets blacks.
It's black racism perpetrated by white men.

"I see racism in the air, in the ground, in the speed of sound." - Julieanne Malveaux, thirty years ago and professor at UC Berkeley, brainwashing "the best and brightest"

"Public education is a socialist monopoly, a real one." - Milton Friedman

That's funny right there, considering it was Made in China.