Ranking the Democrats: Who has best chance of winning nomination?

[mystery-ak]

Ranking the Democrats: Who has best chance of winning nomination?
By Niall Stanage - 01/01/20 06:00 AM EST

he battle for the Democratic nomination is nearing crunch time with roughly one month left before the Iowa caucuses.

Some big-name candidates have dropped out — most notably Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) — while former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has joined the field.

Who has the best chance of winning the nomination?

more
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/476340-ranking-the-democrats-who-has-best-chance-of-winning-nomination

[sneakypete]

Bloomberg plans to stay out of the early primaries, instead choosing to come into the race at the relatively late stage of ‘Super Tuesday’ on March 3.

Well,now we know when to expect Bubbette to drop her horseshoe into the ring,March the 2nd.

[EdinVA]

I don't think bloomburg will stay in.  His ego would not accept loosing the nomination and it takes too much hard work to win.
He would rather let the others knock each other off and then walk into an empty field to take over.

[bigheadfred]

Who has the best chance of winning the nomination?

The rankest one.

[TomSea]

I don't think Klobuchar has a chance to win the nomination but she may be the only one who is not pro-BDS. Also, if Dems were more moderate to begin with, she might be more reasonable but most if not all of their positions on the issues are already way out there. Unacceptable.

[bilo]

It's going to be Bloomberg or Michelle obama. My money would be michelle after a brokered convention.

[libertybele]

Elizabeth Warren.  First and foremost she's female and she's been groomed for this position the past several years.  I think she also appeals to the younger crowd more so than Uncle Joe. She's more to the left but not quite as looney as AOC.

[massadvj]

I think you have to go with Biden as the most likely.  After that, I'd say Bernie because his support is rock solid and unlikely to switch to other candidates.  If Sanders owns the second spot, then he could be formidable since I would expect the bulk of the Warren and Booty-gig vote to go to him rather than Biden or Bloomberg.

I don't see a brokered convention.  After Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina there will only be two men standing.  I don't see Bloomberg having any chance to impact the race much, no matter how much he spends. 

Between Biden and Sanders I guess Biden takes it in a squeaker.

[Smokin Joe]

Watch out for Tom Steyer. He's been pushing everything from stopping climate change to gun control, hitting the high points all over the Leftist map, and advertising heavily on the tube. To people who haven't been paying attention he almost sounds reasonable. He doesn't sound as much of a shrill Communist as the rest, and that might pull in the moderates.

The rest have all been trying to out do each other sounding more ridiculous than the ones before them.

All are out of touch with the average working guy, at least out here in flyover country, but their appeal is in the urban enclaves.

[massadvj]

Watch out for Tom Steyer. He's been pushing everything from stopping climate change to gun control, hitting the high points all over the Leftist map, and advertising heavily on the tube.

I've seen his ads here in Pennsylvania.  I don't think they are having much of an impact.  I don't think heavy media spending can make much of a difference in politics anymore.  Especially among young voters (the critical vote in the Dim primary), hardly anyone watches TV.

If TV was the dominant medium it once was, the television networks would have had Trump impeached and convicted already. 

[Smokin Joe]

I've seen his ads here in Pennsylvania.  I don't think they are having much of an impact.  I don't think heavy media spending can make much of a difference in politics anymore.  Especially among young voters (the critical vote in the Dim primary), hardly anyone watches TV.

If TV was the dominant medium it once was, the television networks would have had Trump impeached and convicted already.

You may be right. The Dem age group that matters can't buy tobacco yet,  and care more about 'rock star' images and social media than positions on issues. I wonder how many were registered Democrat when they got their licenses to drive...

[libertybele]

I think you have to go with Biden as the most likely.  After that, I'd say Bernie because his support is rock solid and unlikely to switch to other candidates.  If Sanders owns the second spot, then he could be formidable since I would expect the bulk of the Warren and Booty-gig vote to go to him rather than Biden or Bloomberg.

I don't see a brokered convention.  After Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina there will only be two men standing.  I don't see Bloomberg having any chance to impact the race much, no matter how much he spends. 

Between Biden and Sanders I guess Biden takes it in a squeaker.

Both of them have health issues -- and aren't exactly spring chickens.  Perhaps that will keep the millennial from voting for them?

[Gefn]

I don't think bloomburg will stay in.  His ego would not accept loosing the nomination and it takes too much hard work to win.
He would rather let the others knock each other off and then walk into an empty field to take over.

I’m going to respectfully disagree. I think he’s in til the primaries are over

[EdinVA]

I’m going to respectfully disagree. I think he’s in til the primaries are over

Could be.... we will see..
At any rate, it is going to be interesting... a lot at stake...

[bilo]

Could be.... we will see..
At any rate, it is going to be interesting... a lot at stake...

I think it's interesting to speculate, but I don't see a lot at stake. If Trump doesn't win big the country is long gone and I don't think that's the case.

[sneakypete]

It's going to be Bloomberg or Michelle obama. My money would be michelle after a brokered convention.

@bilo

I picture Bubbette! seeing that on tv,and her head exploding. There is just no way in HELL she can tolerate HER not being the First Female President after 2 tries,and a black semi/kinda/maybe female just comes right in with and takes that prize away from her.

BTW,I ain't so sure Manchelle has a lock on any but the homosexual and the black votes. Once she opens her mouth to talk,"stupid" just falls right out. I can't wait to see her get asked about her "nuclear-powered carrots" in "her" WH garden during a debate.

[EdinVA]

I think it's interesting to speculate, but I don't see a lot at stake. If Trump doesn't win big the country is long gone and I don't think that's the case.

Well, my kids and grand kids future is at stake, and that is the biggest gamble I have...

[sneakypete]

Well, my kids and grand kids future is at stake, and that is the biggest gamble I have...

@EdinVA

Ed,I am no longer convinced we are going to have an election in Jan. Northam seems determined to have the VA state police and local police start confiscating guns,and there are going to be some people who are not going to be amused by that happening,and just flat out refuse to comply. Yeah,I know. The majority of people talking "my cold dead hands" stuff are just flapping their lips,but I think there may be enough who are as serious as a heart attack about it,and it wouldn't surprise me to see an armed march on Richmond. That could go a number of ways. Anything could happen.

We really COULD see the beginnings of the "Second American Revolution" in our lifetimes,and you are going to get a front seat ticket. I honestly hope this doesn't happen,but it is a very real possibility.

[Gefn]

Well the 1920s brought suffragettes and flappers. Maybe the 2020’s will bring in a female president, though I don’t think it will be this cycle. Maybe in 24 or 28?

[EdinVA]

@EdinVA

Ed,I am no longer convinced we are going to have an election in Jan. Northam seems determined to have the VA state police and local police start confiscating guns,and there are going to be some people who are not going to be amused by that happening,and just flat out refuse to comply. Yeah,I know. The majority of people talking "my cold dead hands" stuff are just flapping their lips,but I think there may be enough who are as serious as a heart attack about it,and it wouldn't surprise me to see an armed march on Richmond. That could go a number of ways. Anything could happen.

We really COULD see the beginnings of the "Second American Revolution" in our lifetimes,and you are going to get a front seat ticket. I honestly hope this doesn't happen,but it is a very real possibility.

@sneakypete
Since there is no registration, the state will have to go door to door and search every house in order to confiscate guns, which is a long tough road, especially getting a warrant to search someones house that has not done anything and no proof they have a gun.  So that is unlikely.
One theory has it that northam will get the law on the books and just pick up guns as the violations surface, which would create a slow steady drip with little or no large scale confrontation.  The impetus for any organized resistance would be minimized.

Will be going to richmond on the 20th and will see what becomes of that.
Cross your fingers.

[sneakypete]

@sneakypete

Since there is no registration, the state will have to go door to door and search every house in order to confiscate guns, which is a long tough road, especially getting a warrant to search someones house that has not done anything and no proof they have a gun.  So that is unlikely.

Not really. What they will do is announce a confiscation of "assault rifles and handguns",and say there will be a 30 day Grace Period for anyone to come and turn their guns in before confiscation,followed by prison terms begins. LOTS of people talk trash,but talking is all most of them are doing. If you just show up at someone's door with a warrant and battering ram,that's one thing. Giving them 30 days to turn their guns in at a police station is something else. I suspect most of them will be getting a little nervous and shaky by the second week,and by week 4 most of them will have given up their guns for a lollypop and a "good citizen award".

One theory has it that northam will get the law on the books and just pick up guns as the violations surface, which would create a slow steady drip with little or no large scale confrontation.  The impetus for any organized resistance would be minimized.

That's true,but I don't believe for a minute than an attention whore like Northam will do that. He wants it done NOW,and he wants to take the credit for it. Just look at what it would do for him chances of being nominated by the Dim Party for President in the next cycle.

Will be going to richmond on the 20th and will see what becomes of that.
Cross your fingers.

Depending on health issues,the weather,and my finances,I might be going myself,but I can't breathe or walk well enough anymore to take part in a march. I could be convinced to stand along the route and wave a poster,though.

[bigheadfred]

@sneakypete

Depending on health issues,the weather,and my finances,I might be going myself,but I can't breathe or walk well enough anymore to take part in a march. I could be convinced to stand along the route and wave a poster,though.

If you are going to wave a poster may I suggest that poster be @LegalAmerican?

How better to show real patriotism?

[Cyber Liberty]

I think you have to go with Biden as the most likely.  After that, I'd say Bernie because his support is rock solid and unlikely to switch to other candidates.  If Sanders owns the second spot, then he could be formidable since I would expect the bulk of the Warren and Booty-gig vote to go to him rather than Biden or Bloomberg.

I don't see a brokered convention.  After Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina there will only be two men standing.  I don't see Bloomberg having any chance to impact the race much, no matter how much he spends. 

Between Biden and Sanders I guess Biden takes it in a squeaker.

The gung-ho Rat voter has but one thing on his/her/its so-called mind:  Beat Donald Trump.

Beyond that, they don't care about much of anything else, and in the cacophony if the early campaigns they'll walk into a booth and decide right then and there for what they think is the "safest" candidate that will beat the Hated Trump.  As you say, that's either Bernie or Biteme.  Lieawatha is too brittle and reminds people of Howard Dean.

And I agree on a brokered Convention.  Not likely, because as soon as a clear front-runner kicks in the sheep will flock to that person in the first weeks of the season, because Trump.  After that it will be laugh-tracks for the months until the convention, watching the designated clown from the departing clown car try to backtrack from the utter insanity of the so-called debates they've been having (before dwindling audiences).

 

(Nice Avatar, @massadvj!)

[Victoria33]

I think you have to go with Biden as the most likely.  After that, I'd say Bernie because his support is rock solid and unlikely to switch to other candidates.  If Sanders owns the second spot, then he could be formidable since I would expect the bulk of the Warren and Booty-gig vote to go to him rather than Biden or Bloomberg.  I don't see a brokered convention.  After Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina there will only be two men standing.  I don't see Bloomberg having any chance to impact the race much, no matter how much he spends.  Between Biden and Sanders I guess Biden takes it in a squeaker.

@massadv

You are likely right unless Biden totally messes up at a debate.  Then, I think it would be Sanders.  Biden can't out talk Trump but Sanders can.

[sneakypete]

@massadv

You are likely right unless Biden totally messes up at a debate.  Then, I think it would be Sanders.  Biden can't out talk Trump but Sanders can.

@Victoria33

I can hear a debate between Bernie and Trump right now. Trump turns to him on live tv and says "How can you claim to be a socialist,when you are a multi-millionaire with 3 homes,one of them a vacation home on a lake?"

Bernie appears smart because nobody asks him anything he hasn't prepared for. SO FAR. That will change if he gets the Dim nomination,though.