It has? I was under the impression that never before had a nominee won the popular vote and then not been voted to be the nominee at the convention?
Some nominees weren't even on the ballot or had the lowest percentage of delegates (or none at all):
THE HISTORY OF REPUBLICAN CONVENTIONS
In the ‘52 race, Ohio Sen. Robert Taft entered the convention with 35 percent of the delegates, followed by General Dwight D. Eisenhower with 26.3 percent, California Gov. Earl Warren with 17.3 percent, and Minnesota Gov. Harold Stassen with 11.3 percent. Most delegates at the convention preferred Taft as the true conservative, but shifted their votes to Eisenhower because he had a much greater likelihood of winning in November. As history showed, they were right.
In 1948, New York Gov. Thomas Dewey came into the nomination with the most delegates, and became the nominee after the second ballot.
In 1940, Dewey also came in with the most delegates—37 percent, followed by Taft with 20 percent, and businessman
Wendell Willkie (who had been a Democrat until a year earlier) with 11 percent. After six ballots, the convention settled on Willkie as the compromise choice.
In 1920, General Leonard Wood came in with 29 percent of the delegates, Illinois Gov. Frank Lowden with 21 percent, California Sen. Hiram Johnson with 13.5 percent, and
Ohio Sen. Warren Harding with 6.7 percent. After ten ballots, Harding became the nominee (and went on to win the general election with 60 percent of the popular vote—the second-most-dominant popular vote in U.S. history).
In 1916, after three ballots, the GOP nominated frontrunner Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes, who came in with 25 percent of the delegates.
In 1888, Ohio Sen. John Sherman came in with 28 percent of the delegates, followed by Indiana federal judge Walter Gresham with 13.5 percent, New York lawyer and politician Chauncey Depew with 12 percent, and
Indiana Sen. Benjamin Harrison with 10 percent. Harrison was chosen after eight ballots, and eventually won one of the closest general elections in U.S. history.
In 1884, frontrunner Maine Sen. James G. Blaine, with 41 percent of the delegates, was nominated after four ballots.
In 1880, the clear frontrunner, with 40 percent of the delegates, was former president and war hero Ulysses S. Grant. Blaine had 37.6 percent, and Ohio Sen. John Sherman 12 percent. After 36 ballots (the longest in GOP history), the convention chose as a compromise candidate Ohio Rep. James Garfield, who had entered the convention with no delegates whatsoever. Garfield won the general election by merely 2,000 popular votes, but an electoral blowout.
In 1876, Blaine was the frontrunner, with 38 percent of the delegates. Three others ran a distant third with about 13 percent each, and
Ohio Gov. Rutherford B. Hayes was in fourth with 8 percent. After seven ballots, Hayes was chosen as a compromise candidate. He lost the general election popular vote (arguably because of black voter suppression in the South), but won a disputed Electoral College vote in the most bitterly fought election in U.S. history.
In 1860, New York Sen. William H. Seward entered the convention as the prohibitive favorite, with 37 percent of the delegates.
After three ballots, the convention settled on the distant second-place contender, who had only 22 percent of the delegates. You may have heard of former Illinois Rep. Abraham Lincoln.
A Slightly Better Track Record of SuccessThe purpose of brokered conventions is to produce a nominee acceptable to Republicans nationwide and who can win the general election. Six of the GOP’s ten brokered conventions have produced a nominee who went on to become president, with six of them winning the popular vote. By contrast, in the ten elections since 1960 in which the GOP was not nominating an incumbent, the Republican nominee has won four times.
Whatever one may think of the GOP brokering conventions, their track record in producing winning candidates has been slightly better than the modern system of choosing nominees. Perhaps the GOP ought not to be afraid of the possibility.
