The Briefing Room
General Category => National/Breaking News => Weather => Topic started by: catfish1957 on May 09, 2023, 01:19:21 pm
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Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers. At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June.
I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.
Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N. No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif)
Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.
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:bkmk:
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Hard to believe but we are only a few weeks away from Hurricane Season. Want to set up a thread so I can share tropical weather updates that may impact coastal Briefers. At least this year, we near the GOM are seeing a few degree temp anomaly, coupled with some wind vectoring (speed and direction) that might if the trend hold, give us an active early season, which normally for us is in June.
I know we normally think of these these being their worst in August and September, but there have been major hurricanes like Audrey in 1957 have hit in June, and have killed 100's.
Looking at the visual sat runs this morning, and wow, the GOM looks like an organizing mid and upper level low right at 96W/27N. No word yet of any development from the NHC, but I do know we are in for an extra we few days here.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-GM-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif)
Not sure the trend will continue, but if we are seeing robust lows this early, it might be an interesting June.
Lots of blue tarps still on roofs around here. It's a mess, people are still waiting on insurance to handover $$ for claims and insurance companies are leaving and of course premiums are skyrocketing. Places are just starting to rebuild. Our area yacht club closed and they are rebuilding; it's going to be a year or so. So, it is hard to believe that hurricane season is about a week away.
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B and C Storms in the Caribbean and Atlantic right now (Brett and Cindy)
Neither at least at this juncture appear to be threats to the CONUS. My fear though is that ATL activity this early in the season may mean an active August and September, as there are some pretty nice sized warmer than usual plumes in those locations and eastwards this early.
Also a TX and Northern GOM heat wave this early doesn't help.
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I thought I saw reports that the Atlantic is seeing record heat(well record as far as we know) that is causing a higher risk of hurricanes earlier than normal.
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And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency. Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian. Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane. Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it. I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go. Joy!
State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches
As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.
Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.
“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”
Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........
https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html
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And here we go .... time to dodge or time to stay put? Too early to tell where this is going, but DeSantis has already declared a state of emergency. Lots of homes around here with tarps still on the roof from Ian. Insurance companies have dragged their feet and now we're under threat of a tropical storm or possible hurricane. Tropical storms can bring some damage and flooding with it. I was hoping for a very quiet season .... we are just about at the peak of the season.... months left to go. Joy!
State of emergency declared for most of Florida’s Gulf Coast as tropical system approaches
As a tropical system continues to march toward Florida, with a high chance of becoming a depression or something stronger in the coming days, a state of emergency was declared Saturday for most counties on the Gulf Coast.
Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order that declared the state of emergency for 33 counties, including Manatee, Hillsborough (where Tampa is) and Leon (where Tallahassee is). The order allows for emergency resources and preparation to move quicker and more freely.
“I signed an Executive Order issuing a state of emergency out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a storm next week,” DeSantis said in a statement. “I encourage Floridians to have a plan in place and ensure that their hurricane supply kit is stocked.”
Heavy rainfall, strong winds and isolated tornado activity is what the governor’s office said it expects Florida’s west coast to see........
https://www.yahoo.com/news/state-emergency-declared-most-florida-175800601.html
System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward. Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm. Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf. Considering the way above surface temps.
Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing. The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that. In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.
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System, now known as 93L, has a pretty tight spread of model data where 90% of the runs focus on Tallahase and a bit westward. Intensity models are not as consistent with windspeeds at landfall at this point ranging from 40 to 108 knots (120 mph),and a median of 68 knots, which is a high end Tropical Storm. Looking at the GOM profiles at this exact point shows minimal shear in the eastern Gulf. Considering the way above surface temps.
Possibly there are seeing slow development because when you look at the Wave, it sure seems at least at this moment that it is having issues organizing. The heaviest areas of convection keep shifting, which is a sure tell taled sign of that. In fact, unless my eyes are deceiving me, the main parts of the low seem to be shifting SE, back towards the Central Caribbean.
I'm always leery of systems on this side of the Gulf. I've seen spaghetti models with the storm being aimed at Tampa. They always start out with the warning storms headed towards Tampa Bay and it seems more often than not they've been wrong and usually we get knocked around pretty well much further south of that.
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Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.
The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.
A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida
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Tropical Depression Ten forms near southern Gulf of Mexico with sights set on Florida as a hurricane
The National Hurricane Center is tracking Tropical Depression Ten near the southern Gulf of Mexico that will likely organize into Tropical Storm Idalia and a hurricane before landfall along Florida's Gulf Coast.
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, sustained winds with the tropical derepression were around 30 mph.
The cyclone is expected to be upgraded to Idalia during the next 24 hours, and watches will likely be required during the next 48 hours for parts of the Florida coastline.
A Tropical Storm Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach levels of 39 to 73 mph within 48 hours. Sustained winds of these levels can produce damage and can be accompanied by storm surge, coastal flooding and tornadoes. A Hurricane Watch is issued when winds are anticipated to reach at least 74 mph within 48 hours.............
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tracking-tropical-storm-threat-florida
Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane. But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.
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Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane. But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.
I hope you're right. We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic.
Too early to tell yet anyways.
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I hope you're right. We still have quite a few around here who still have tarps on their roofs and the expected rain is going to be problematic.
Too early to tell yet anyways.
Way to early. My take is I don't care.
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Wind sheer is gonna stop this from becoming a cane. But the fear mongers are gonna hype this thing like it is the end of the world.
Just like Comet Kohoutek Hurricane Hilary. I didn't get a drop of rain from her, I just got the standard Monsoon rains, about 0.75 inches.
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11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay. Newly updated model projection have been revised to a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.
GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm. That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification. Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task. That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation. So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track. In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.
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bookmark
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Tropical Storm Idalia Likely to Become Hurricane Headed to Florida West Coast
August 27, 2023 | Sundance | 1 Comment
Information from the National Hurricane Center [DATA HERE] (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/271745.shtml) indicates currently slow-moving Tropical Storm Idalia will likely speed up quickly tomorrow and form a Hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. The current cone of uncertainty puts the Northern and Western portion of Florida at greatest risk.
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 85.8 West. Idalia is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday. ...
(https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Hurricane-Idalia-2.jpg)
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/27/tropical-storm-idalia-likely-to-become-hurricane-headed-to-florida-west-coast/
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11 am advisory has newly named Idalia with projected track Just west of Talahassee to Tampa Bay. Newly updated model projection have been revised to a Wednesday morning landfall has a strong Cat 1 at 80 knots.
GOM profiles do show some addtional sheer with a tongue of sheer at about 25N, 85W, which is in path of storm. That may be why they are not predicting rapid intensification. Storm itself is pretty raggedy, and actually finding the COC is not that easy of a task. That is why I won't be a bit surprised to see potential significant COC relocation. So my advise to Briefers, is don't get too comfortable with present track. In fact 90% of the covection is dislodged (east) of what the NHC is calling the Center.
Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty. I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.
Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.
'Tis the season. happy77
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Ron DeSantis
@GovRonDeSantis
We are preparing for impacts from Tropical Storm #Idalia, which is expected to strengthen over the coming days before impacting the Gulf Coast mid-week. Florida has resources on standby that are ready to deploy as needed.
Follow @FLSERT for updates.
4:34 PM · Aug 27, 2023
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Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.
In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s
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Here's a report from Ryan Hall, I watch him because he's related to my SIL and seems fairly accurate.
In this video we are talking about hurricane Idalia and Franklin & their impacts on the USA. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gO
Unable to access the video. :shrug:
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It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point." Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch. Cue the circus.
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Definitely I am not comfortable with the track; too much uncertainty. I've been watching different predictions with landfall anywhere from Ft. Myers up to the panhandle which is quite a spread, but I've also heard a possibility of Cat. 2.
Most are predicting landfall around the Big Bend area -- hurricanes are too unpredictable and the cone could shift dramatically very quickly.
'Tis the season. happy77
The most recent apocalyptic storms were projected to strike Tampa Bay, only to shift east in the final 36 hours: Charley, Irma, Ian. So as a result, most people are not paying attention to this yet. Quite a few of them could have sea water in their living rooms on Tuesday night.
Since you have experience with storms, I am willing to let you handle this one too. :seeya:
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It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point." Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch. Cue the circus.
No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.
So taday I had to pick up a 12 pack at publix. So just for shits a giggles I walked down the water isle. Damn thing was wiped out cept for gallon jugs. Hell, we aren't even in the projected cone of doom.
Beer is good. God is great and People are stupid.
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It looks like the landfall projections are shifting east, with the models still trying to determine the "launch point." Our phones just alerted everyone to a hurricane watch. Cue the circus.
Exactly. Like I mentioned this morning, I am not really sure NHC has 100% consensus on the storm initialization.
Looking at the models, and those unknowns, I'd suggest anywhere east of the Mississippi River keep an eye on advisories
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Unable to access the video. :shrug:
@libertybele New link, I don't know what happened :shrug:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-fXEnt8gOI&t=301s
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No need to panic till Jim Cantore shows up.
He'll be here by Monday afternoon, I bet. Idalia found a tank of Caribbean rocket fuel this evening. No bueno.
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Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:
1. Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm. That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes.
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6. I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues.
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Looking at this morning's model runs, and condtions in the GOM, just a few observations:
1. Winds and sheer has dropped to near zero to the north and path of the storm. That is a green light toward intensification.
2. Sea Temperatures are anaomolus highs
3. There is a dry tongue of air from South Texas to near the west Tip of Cuba that might restrict some early rapid intensification.
4. Trough axis (weak front) between East Texas to KY is also going to be critical to how much and how soon of an eastward turn the storm makes.
5. Storm itself is finally starting to show some symethry and organization.
6. I see storm is now forcasted to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I wouldn't be surprised if that upward trend continues.
In listening to the latest local forecasts, storm surge watch is in effect for our area. Interestingly they have not shown any "spaghetti model" tracks since yesterday. They are still expecting it to hit the Big Bend area -- but they have now increased the 'warning' area of storm surge. This is concerning.
We've have some water, but the stores are empty. I'll start filling up the 3gal jugs that we have with tap water (ugh) -- it's drinkable.
Plenty of food -- gas stations are crazy. We have a gas caddy filled for the generator and our cars are filled up. We will see impact as early as tomorrow morning.
We are staying put. The latest announcement for the county is that there are no evacuation orders in place. We will know more by 5:30 -- a little late to start evacuations for tomorrow. Here we are once again!!
The forecasting has a lot to be desired. I feel like they don't have a clue.
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Much luck to you and all other Fla residents.
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Model data has tightened nicely around an approximate Cedar Key landfall at what appears to be hurricane winds arriving late Tues.
Noticed there is a large clump of convection that has broken off to the north, that with that churning might slightly help delay intensification, though the NHC doesn't seem to be picking up on that. Storm itself though slowly organizing does not show a evident sign of an open discernable eye, or the nice spiral configuation. I do see evidence of a strong COC, but not typical of a storm in this level of development.
I know the NHC knows a helluva lot more than me, and has a plethora of data I don't have access to. But for the life of me, I don' t see how this storm under the present scenario can strengthen from 85 to 120 mph given what I see in the GOM right now. I am guessing / banking tht the NHC is putting stock into the overheated NE Gulf water temperatures for that call.
When Idelia passes Tampa Bay's latitude, the cone at least at this advisory will be about 60 miles wide. But where in that 60 mile cone is going to be like night and day for the folks in TB. East side?.. Expect hurricane force winds possibly and storm surge flooding. West side? A Breezy rainy day.
One interesting point is that this is one of the more behaved (predictive) storms I have seen in awhile. The path hasn't strayed more than 100 miles in any direction since the storm has been inititalized. Strength wise, I think they underestimated early, but at least from my POV, landfall might be anywhere from 90-130 mph sustained winds. Let's not forget how unpredictable these things are.
Back in 2007, I watched Humberto hit us, while being a wave one day, and a Cat 1 storm the next.
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With 11 am advisory, max windspeeds still at 85 mph. Which is surprising, and consistent with my earlier contention that the 120-125 mph max windspeed at landfall might be overstated.
Otherwise, no change in track and timing.
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5:00 p.m. advisory - now tracking north and moving slightly faster @ 16mph - winds - 100 mph. Now a Cat 2 hurricane. Winds at landfall will be a little less at 115 mph. -- still a Cat 3. Storm surge will still be significant with the possibility of the Big Bend area seeing 15 ft.
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I am pissed. We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right.
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I am pissed. We need rain bad and this damn storm is turning right.
Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.
We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs. We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good I'm hoping and praying for the best. The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.
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Be careful what you wish for -- hurricanes are so unpredictable.
We are getting lots of rain -- heavy rain and gusts of wind off and on for the next 12 hrs. We will get storm surge during high tide -- not good I'm hoping and praying for the best. The Big Bend area /Tampa Bay/Cedar Key are going to be absolutely devastated.
Hey. It is the luck of the draw. I really don't care as long as I dont get hit.
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Storm strenghthen significantly over the afternoon, and sustained winds are up to 105 mph. I really enjoy studying the configuation of storm, as mapping each is as unique as a snowflake. One really interesting component of Ilaya is look at the southern outflow of the storm. It extends all the way to the SW coast of Mexico. (Truncated on this map, but look at other VISAT.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20232420236_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg)
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There is always at least one Cape Verde Storm in September that always scares the sh__ out of us, and AL95, a couple of thousand miles east of Windward Islands, might be this year's candidate. It is an unusually well developed wave this early in its development.
Def. one to keep an eye on.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2)
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AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee. This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days. The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide. Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm. Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early. Def. one we have to watch closely.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145817_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee. This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days. The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide. Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm. Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early. Def. one we have to watch closely.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145817_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Hoping that this one stays away from FL -- we've had enough. happy77
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AL95 is now TD 13, and very shortly will be Lee. This thing is forecasted to be a major hurricane, with a line share of the models having this thing as a Cat 3 or 4 within 3 or 4 days. The cone 5 days out is about 500 miles wide. Where Lee sits at that point 65W Latitude, will have a large bearing on whether this is a FL/or GOM storm versus a Bermuda, NE U.S., or Fish Storm. Even as a Depression, this thing looks pretty impressive organizationally for a storm this early. Def. one we have to watch closely.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/145817_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8
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https://www.yutube.com/watch?v=5HY1EAzjxz8
A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered. OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more more likely seen in October. Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.
Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point. COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat. And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles. Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.
In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.
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A mid September Trough/Front of this magnitude would be just what the doctor ordered. OTOH, seeing a 1020 Mb High reaching the GOM around September would be a pretty darn rare event, and something more more likely seen in October. Which is why Texas has never seen a Major Hurricane in October.
Another point that the guy (who did a good job on his synopsis) lost site of, is that this storm is so early in its life, we still haven't got what I feel is a iron clad initialization point. COC's this early on can relocate a 100 miles at a drop of a hat. And any significant southern relocation of the center can change the projected path by several 100's of miles. Don't forget, just a 5 degree latitude southward shift, can significantly reduce the corollis trending that causes storms typically to turn North, then East.
In a nutshell, any speculation of where this storm goes is a pure guess. That means anywhere from Mexico (like Gilbert) to Fish Central is in play.
Now tropical Storm Lee. Local news is reporting that there is some indication that this could become a Cat 5 Hurricane. Spaghetti models are not in total agreement that this will miss FL with most models showing it moving up towards the Carolinas.
This is moving rapidly with very little wind sheer to prevent it from further development.
I don't like the looks of where this is heading and a Cat 5 is very worrisome. It's going to be again one of those last minute efforts to get out of harms way because it is moving so rapidly and too early right now to tell where it's heading.
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NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday. Path is forecasted to be very linear at 295 degrees. This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem to defy atmospheric influences. Gilbert comes to mind as an example.
Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204837_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
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NHC has Lee an eyelash under Cat 5 status by Saturday. Path is forecasted to be very linear at 295 degrees. This is pretty typical of monster storms which sometimes do this as they sometimes seem to defy atmospheric influences. Gilbert comes to mind as an example.
Unless this one somehow succumbs to a northward curve, we are likely looking at historic storm.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT13/refresh/AL132023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind+png/204837_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png)
That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.
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That one looks like it'll tromp right straight across Florida, into the northern Gulf, and then head up into the heartland.
I"m terrible at geography. Does it Looks like it will go up the East Coast?
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Local news is reporting that Hurricane Lee is 500 miles wide and is projected to take a turn to the north due to Bermuda high winds. However not all spaghetti models are in agreement - some show it going into the Gulf, some show it hitting the lower southeast coast of FL though most show it taking a northward trend away from the U.S. coast. Tomorrow into Saturday it will become a Cat 4 and the direction will be much better known.
(https://res.cloudinary.com/graham-media-group/image/upload/f_auto/q_auto/c_scale,w_900/v1/media/gmg/SPUYSM5QMJFP5M2SPZVSFFFAEQ.jpg?_a=AJFJtWIA)
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(https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/dynamic/wyff/SpaghettiModels.jpg?resize=660:*)
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Jim Cantore
@JimCantore
Beyond Sunday things get very interesting because steering is resetting in the larger scale atmosphere and how certain features evolve and interact is very important as to how #Lee interacts or doesn't with Bermuda and/or the eastern part of USA/Canada. So this tweet is all about NEXT WEEK.
Lee could stall early next week north of the Greater Antilles as it waits for large scale features to set up. Monday features a formidable Lee north of the Greater Antilles. By Wednesday several ECMWF members have Lee on the move north with east coast troughing and a subtropical ridge north and east. By next Friday look at the spread by the members. It could be anywhere from north of the Turks to north of Bermuda. You can see the features set up on the ECMWF for Friday, but little confidence in how strong or weak they are and how they play with Lee at this point is shown here.
That is why Bermuda should be watching Lee intently and we cannot rule out impacts for the northeast USA and maritime Canada at this time. We do know this will be a huge wave machine for the eastern part of the USA.
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Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents. Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.
I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5. In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds. That's impressive.
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Almost all model data is pointing to a significant trough/front late this week in SE CONUS that is going result in a significant northward turn.
Seems the GOM is spared, and FL much less likely impacted outside of rip currents. Mid Atlantic to New England isn't out of the woods yet, but at least the past 12 hour trending is looking much better.
I still think this thing has a 50/50 chance of making it to Cat 5. In any case, in its forceast they are expecting Lee to have a 400 mile diameter of tropical force winds. That's impressive.
What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?
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What are the odds that it might smack into NY harbor, or cut across L.I.?
Anecdotally, pretty small just due to the rolling of the dice. The NHC does do forecast wind probabilities for 34kt. (t.s. strength) , 50 kt, and 64kt (hurricane strength), but they only do it out 5 days, so that data isn't in play yet.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/070832.shtml? (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/070832.shtml?)
Just my opinion, and again just my opinion is that anyone from Miami to Newfoundland, and Bermuda should keep their eye on advisories. This has the chance to be a very large diametered storm that might have significant impact even if you are missed by the eye by 100's of miles.
Why Florida? I mentioned a few posts ago, that extremely large and powerful storms sometimes defy atmospheric imfluences. A good example is when we were watching Gilbert in 1988. The NHC for maybe the last 800 miles of its track kept predicting a northwestern, and then northern turn to the storm. Never happened.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c7/Gilbert_1988_track.png/1280px-Gilbert_1988_track.png)
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(https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/dynamic/wyff/SpaghettiModels.jpg?resize=660:*)
I like that model.
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I like that model.
As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.
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As long as one does not have impending vacation plans in Bermuda.
True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.
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True but....
As a Floridian I learned not to go on vacay during 'Cane season.
Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.
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Unfortunately, if it hits Bermuda, it may do a lot of long-lasting damage that will thwart vacay plans even after 'Cane season.
My take --
The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit. According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide. IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north. It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.
If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide.
We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out. It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.
Sigh. God help all of those in Lee's path.
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My take --
The hurricane is already a Cat 4 -- it will decimate Bermuda even if they don't take a direct hit. According to local news tomorrow it should reach 165 mph winds with wind gusts of 195. It is 500 miles wide. IMHO They should be evacuating those in Bermuda now should it take a slight curve to the north. It is supposed to pass north of Puerto Rico -- however, they'll likely realize surge and winds.
If it doesn't take a jog to the north and they are now saying that there is more uncertainty, a hit along the US east cost somewhere will be absolutely devastating -- storm surge and wind; without that turn it looks like a direct hit to Miami and across the state as FL is only 170 miles wide.
We'll know by Sunday ---- if it's aimed at FL it is very likely that southern and central FL will likely be trying to try to get out. It will be another historical and catastrophic hurricane.
Sigh. God help all of those in Lee's path.
You worry too much. Relax. Have a Margarita and chill.
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You worry too much. Relax. Have a Margarita and chill.
Take a look at this video @link below -- the discussion at the very end is what is concerning. They bring up the possibility of this becoming even larger. Yep I do worry --- we've been through Charley, Irma, and Ian. All 3 were too close for comfort with very near misses of a direct hit. This one is mammoth in comparison to even Irma with much greater intensity.
This one warrants a double shot of scotch.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/video/hurricane-lee-forecast-to-reach-category-5-by-friday
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NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.
145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts. Insane
That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.
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NHC tomorrow at this time has Lee at Cat 5 sustained windspeed.
145 knots. sustained 170 knot gusts. Insane
That translates 5o 167 mph and 201 mph gusts.
Where is it tracking now?
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Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean
By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023
Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.
Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.
The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.
The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.
Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Source: https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/
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Where is it tracking now?
If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories. Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces. Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.
Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/20232511240_GOES16-ABI-car-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg)
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Hurricane Lee explodes into Category 5 storm as it approaches the Caribbean
By Allie Griffin
Published Sep. 8, 2023
Hurricane Lee rapidly intensified into the first Category 5 storm of the Atlantic season late Thursday as it approached the northeast Caribbean.
Lee is not expected to make landfall but its powerful effects will be felt on some islands, including the Lesser Antilles which will see 10- to 15-foot waves Friday, according to forecasters.
The major storm barreled through open ocean about 705 miles east of the northern Leeward Island with winds of up to 160 miles per hour as it moved west-northwest.
The US Federal Emergency Management Agency has deployed teams to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands in preparation for the hurricane, the White House said.
Massive, life-threatening waves are expected to slam the coasts of Puerto Rico, the US and British Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, the Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
* * *
Source: https://nypost.com/2023/09/08/hurricane-lee-intensified-to-category-5-storm-as-it-approaches-the-caribbean/
Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???
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If you plot Lee it is showing a very slight west of track progression via prior advisories. Still not one single model has a direct CONUS hit, though some show Maritime Canadian Provinces. Of course, this equation changes every 12 hours, so not out of the woods yet.
Secondly, we sure shouldn't forget that storm of this size and magnitude could do some serious damage (Say Hateras northward) if the storm tracks west and is within a few hundred miles of the coast.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/20232511240_GOES16-ABI-car-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg)
IMHO FL cannot be ruled out. Locally we had a forecaster who said that this is not a FL hurricane -- that 'tweet' has now been taken down.
Weather reports have stated that if it slows down a bit due to some wind sheer (and it has already gone from a 5 to a 4), it may not curve to the north as anticipated. If that happens, I feel that FL will get walloped. If not FL then the Carolinas. Just my take.
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Interesting that FEMA has been deployed -- where in the heck was FEMA when Ian and Idalia were rolling in and we took a direct hit???
Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.
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Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.
Well, they didn't want to get hit by a 'Roundhouse' in the media seeing as how they are perceived reacting to the Maui Fires. I don't think the Electoral Vote matters there.
Furthermore, it's right here in our side yard...not in the middle of the Pacific 5K miles away.
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Florida doesn't vote Democrat! Next question please.
Gottcha.
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Lee has ran into a a SW to NE tongue of sheer a couple of hundred miles NE of Leeward Islands. Still Cat 3, at 115 mph, and NHC expects reintensification.
What is puzzling to me is the overall path still is running somewhat south and west of previous forecasts. At focal length, you'd think this would bode badly for all between FL and entire east coast. But, the NHC is exepcting some abrupt northward turning Wednesday. I am still skeptical.
Let's all hope this is the case though.
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Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):
https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628
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Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):
https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628
@mountaineer Thanks for the update!
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Current projected track of Lee (as of approximately 10 AM, 9/11/23):
https://twitter.com/FencingRat/status/1701277390083858628
Rebekah Jones? The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events? MY MY.
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Rebekah Jones? The FL covid whistle blower that wasn't is now forecasting weather events? MY MY.
She has a Sharpie and is not afraid to use it.
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Dangerous surf & life-threatening rip currents expected for Western Atlantic coastal areas this week. Too soon to know additional impacts for NE U.S. & Atlantic Canada late this week.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1701343054806778308
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It's now Monday afternoon, and that NHC projeced northward turn is now 24-36 hours late. As advertised, the front/trough has delievered into the Southern and Eastern GOM.
But let me repeat..... Someimes these monster storms (like Gilbert as example) defy atmospheric influences, and barrow through like freight trains. Right now, only New England is in the cone, but the mid altlantic coast should not let their guard down. OTOH, I do feel better for everyone Cape Hatteras southward.
Also notice that same front from about 30N/90W has gone stationary. If the front washes out quicker than the Mets predict, I also expect a more westward projection of the storm too. On the good side, there is a lot of broken unorganized convection to the north of the storm. Whih I hope wlll hinder strengthening.
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How much longer must we endure the Global Climate Change carnage until we realize that John Kerry is still a pretentious hypocritical douchebag?
It's unprecendented for New England to be hit by a hurricane in September, except in 1858, 1869, 1888, 1889, 1896, 1938, 1944, 1954, 1960, and 1985.
(https://kubrick.htvapps.com/htv-prod-media.s3.amazonaws.com/images/dynamic/wmur/2023_TROPICAL_MODELS.jpg?crop=1xw:1xh;center,top&resize=900:*)
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Wouldn't be nice if the weather porn prognosticators would for once, just once, say that the chances of this cane causing serious damage to the US is very slime.
This is why we have lost faith in our institutions.
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(https://i.imgflip.com/7yt570.jpg)
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I think the likes of the NHC do a decent objective and straightforward job of reporting storms. In fact they provide the reader an exact tally of the probability of a Hurricane or T.S. Hit out 120 hours.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/112041.shtml? (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT3+shtml/112041.shtml?)
The rest of proggys like the Weather Channel, Accuweather, et. al. often succumb to that sensational side of storm predictions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyrRCx8-fZk (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZyrRCx8-fZk)
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Still waiting for Lee's abrupt right turn.
90% of the pervious model runs had Lee more north than 25N, as it passed 65W Longitude. Makes me wonder if the official track should be more west than present.
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48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee. Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds. As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England. Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm. Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.
Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm Winds.
With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.
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48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee. Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds. As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England. Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm. Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.
Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm Winds.
With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.
Thank you for the updates @catfish1957 :beer:
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48 hours late, but that long expected northward turn has begun for Lee. Winds right now are a robust 115mph Cat 3 sustained winds. As far as future tracking, I think we are now down to counting Lat/Long Clicks as far as New England. Official NHC path now has the line at the far eastern border of Maine as an extra-tropical Tropical Storm. Overall cone itself streches from Cape Cod, MA to Newfoundland.
Storms like this as they get caught up in the Gulf Stream have a tendency to broaden their wind fields, and a lot forecating is saying the mid atlantic to Canada, and including Bermuda should expect Tropical Storm Winds.
With minimal expected adverse hurricane issues (ex. flooding, rip currents), this will be my last comments on Lee.
:thumbsup:
Thanks!
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I wonder if Hurricane Margot will help to push Lee further west.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24&dim=1 (https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/fulldisk_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24&dim=1)
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Next up... The "N" Storm
Nigel now formed, and is forecasted to intensify pretty rapidly, reaching Cat 3 by Tuesday. The Good news is this one is 99% likely to be a fish storm.
From my experience this year is kind of looking like a lot like 1995. That was a big year for storms, and the 5th most active in history. BUT... The big character of that year, was most of that activtiy was in the Central Atlantic.. Only one named major hurricane hit the U.S. that year. Opal, in September. Yeah, in terms of destruction, a lower than normal year, but I am sure the people around Pensacola, might have a different take.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT15/refresh/AL152023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144212_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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Looking out on the expanses of the GOM, Caribbean, and Atlantic, it is a very strange view indeed for September 19th. Yeah, Fish Storm Nigel is stirring up water in the Central Atlantic, but for the life of me, there is practically nothing going on during when should be the most active part of the year. (See below)
The most interesting feature on the maps right now, is a 100 mile by 100 mile clump of preciptation lingering just NW of Yucatan 23N/92W. If this thing would disassociate from the front, and get some low shear, this might crop up as a problem. But there is almost like October N/S sheer, and as long as this rings true, this system will have no chance.
Lastly there are a couple of small tropical waves in the Carribean, but they are so close to land, I don't expect ay development. Considering the elevated water temperatures basin wide, it does seem quite odd.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/car/GEOCOLOR/20232622130_GOES16-ABI-car-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg)
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/AirMass/20232622151_GOES16-ABI-gm-AirMass-500x500.jpg)
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Local news is forecasting Nigel as a rainmaker on the East coast. We're getting our daily rains and wind gusts which are typical for our rainy season.
Hurricane Idalia hit the Big Bend area hard and it brought us tropical storm weather.
I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.
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I would love for this to be the end of our storms, but we still have till the end of November to get through and we've had tropical storms into December before.
I'm Chill. Don't play into the Cane porn.
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Extra -Tropical Storm No. 16 has formed off the east coast, and it looks like it might bring some strong T.S. Wind, waves, and rain to the east coast from about NC to New England. Doesn't look too serious at this point, but Briefers in that vicinity might keep half an ey on it for between now and early next week, in case conditions warrant.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/refresh/AL162023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/175932_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
Otherwise, there is a pretty healthy looking wave out by Cape Verde that is way too soon to make any guesses. Systems out there so far have pretty much been fish storms. And right now there are enough lows digging out at about 40-50W to think this might be the same.
GOM and Caribbean? Pretty clear. There is NW/SE Axis low near Mobile to Key West, though no evidence of organization thus far.
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24 Sep 2023 update....
Ophelia unwinding and inundanting east coast as extratropical low.
Newly formed Phillipe, poised to be the next fish storm and should turn northward several hundred miles east of Bermuda.
One decent Cape Verde Wave at about 9N/24W. Several days away from being any kind of concern. This one, for record though is more south than other recent disturbances, and at those latitudes should be less coductive to an earlier north turn. Way to soon, to know if it is a threat though.
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"R" and "P" storms appear to be trending fish variety, so no short term concerns, or updates
Of interest though is the GOM/Caribbean looks like things are finally starting to wake up. Recent frontal troughs reaching the gulf have been pretty spotty on convection. But looking today, there is a nice chunk of "so far" unorganized convection in the entire Noth GOM at about Latitude 28. No spin yet, but I am seeing some examples of the precipitation tranversing within 25-50 miles of individual storm clusters.
The fact we have not seen a GOM originated storm this late, and with these temperature anomalies, is very surprising. Out luck won't hold up for the rest of the season though.
(https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/GEOCOLOR/20232721721_GOES16-ABI-gm-GEOCOLOR-500x500.jpg)
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Next up... Tammy.
Yes, we are at the "T" strom which means under most accounts indicates a very active hurricane season. Luck continues good for CONUS as, this one's forecast at this point show only some T.S. impacts to the Lesser Antilles.
Knock on wood, thus far has been a very mild season overall with impacts, .... i.e outside the catastrophic hit Idalia to FL in August.
October and November are still prone to large storms in the eastern GOM and SE Coast.
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT20/refresh/AL202023_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/131935_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
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Good news is Gulf Temps are cooling faster than normal this year. Hope the trend continues.
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Interesting -- they finally got around to acknowledging that Ian was a Cat 5. I am hopeful that we are in a continued calm cycle
2023 hurricane season: Least impactful for US in nearly a decade
According to initial estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season. The 2017 hurricane season ranks as the costliest in U.S. history, with around $300 billion worth of damage done. According to NOAA, a significant landfalling hurricane produces damage of around $22.8 billion.
The fourth most active Atlantic basin hurricane season in the satellite era has drawn to a close, but what could have been a season of records left the U.S. relatively unscathed compared to recent years.
According to NOAA estimates, between $3-$4 billion worth of damage was done during the 2023 hurricane season, making it the quietest season since 2015 - another El Niño year.
Idalia was the only U.S. landfalling hurricane in 2023
Hurricane Idalia, which struck Florida’s Big Bend as a Category 3 hurricane, was the most impactful cyclone and produced more than 80% of the season’s damage.
Government estimates put the damage tally at around $2.5-$3 billion, which was largely centered along the Gulf Coast, between Tallahassee and Tampa Bay..............
(https://images.foxweather.com/static.foxweather.com/www.foxweather.com/content/uploads/2023/04/1336/752/Top-5-Costliest-Hurricanes.png?ve=1&tl=1)
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/hurricane-season-2023-summary-recap
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Thankful is was a "lite" season, especially in the western GOM sector.
We needed the break. happy77