Jordan falls short of 217 votes; minority leader Jeffries gets 212 votes to Jordan’s 200

[roamer_1]

Yep. Hern and Donalds are rated most conservative out of the list (by The Heritage Foundation, for the current session) and maybe need a better look. I'd like to see those ratings compared to other scorecards.

Wishful thinking. If Jordan could not get it done, no other Conservative is going to have the credz.

[Smokin Joe]

Wishful thinking. If Jordan could not get it done, no other Conservative is going to have the credz.

We'll see. It's an election year, and the GOP is not beyond pandering to demographics and checking boxes, in spite of a candidate being Conservative.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Wishful thinking. If Jordan could not get it done, no other Conservative is going to have the credz.

From where I'm sitting, this entire thing was an attempt by members of the Freedom Caucus to force the GOP majority to select Jordan as Speaker.  They figured that as long as they held firm, everyone else would capitulate and they'd get the guy they wanted all along.  They miscalculated.

For that same reason, I think Donald's candidacy is DOA.

Hern is pretty close to Trump and so might not be acceptable anyway, but I do think he has a better shot than Jordan did.

[roamer_1]

We'll see. It's an election year, and the GOP is not beyond pandering to demographics and checking boxes, in spite of a candidate being Conservative.

That's the only reason Jordan would have stood a chance... though they ARE burning down the phone lines... maybe so...

[roamer_1]

From where I'm sitting, this entire thing was an attempt by members of the Freedom Caucus to force the GOP majority to select Jordan as Speaker.  They figured that as long as they held firm, everyone else would capitulate and they'd get the guy they wanted all along.  They miscalculated.

For that same reason, I think Donald's candidacy is DOA.  Hern is conservative, but he is not a member of The Freedom Caucus, but rather the chair of the Republican Study Group.

He is pretty close to Trump and so might not be acceptable anyway, but I do think he has a better shot than Jordan did.

Like I said upthread... ham-handed... But I DO believe it was about McCarthy not keeping his word. What happened next is obviously unplanned to me.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Like I said upthread... ham-handed... But I DO believe it was about McCarthy not keeping his word. What happened next is obviously unplanned to me.

Hern is the head of the Republican Study Group, which is the largest caucus within the GOP and has 156 members.  Obviously, if they support him, he's in.

I personally think he's the best damage control candidate out there.  He's not tied as closely to McCarthy as someone like Emmert, So I think the more hardline members would be willing to support him.

[roamer_1]

Hern is the head of the Republican Study Group, which is the largest caucus within the GOP and has 156 members.  Obviously, if they support him, he's in.

Dunno if he's a glad-hander, like Scalise or Jordan... not on the social radar... maybe so.

[cato potatoe]

I hear what you are saying but in the same light; those that side with DEMS or vote along with them aren't worth their seat and should be voted out.  Not doing so is why we're at the crossroads we have.

Ever heard that saying “half a loaf is better than no bread?”  You are not going to elect right wingers in most districts.  There are just tons of people in the northeast, on the west coast, and cities in between.  Either we welcome squishes into the coalition, or the dems will happily lord over us for all eternity.

[Hoodat]

Wishful thinking. If Jordan could not get it done, no other Conservative is going to have the credz.

The Establishment members have revealed what really matters to them.  It isn't Gaetz' head.  We just witnessed Gaetz, Good, Rosendale, et al. offer to step down if the Establishment holdouts would drop their opposition to Jordan.  But they found that unacceptable.  Keeping Establishment control of the leadership positions was more important to them than getting rid of Gaetz.

[mountaineer]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Kevin Hern has announced he is going to run for speaker of the House after Jim Jordan's attempt failed.
Kevin Hern currently is the Congressman who benefits most from the current wars in Ukraine and Israel, per his stock holdings.
Here are more of his unusual trades:

2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
Kevin Hern has a tendency of buying military companies before news. For example, Rep. Kevin Hern bought Lockheed Martin stocks back in August 2021. He bought another $100k in $LMT just 2 weeks before Lockheed Martin won the $10.9 billion Air Force contract.
2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

[Maj. Bill Martin]

The Establishment members have revealed what really matters to them.  It isn't Gaetz' head.  We just witnessed Gaetz, Good, Rosendale, et al. offer to step down if the Establishment holdouts would drop their opposition to Jordan.  But they found that unacceptable.  Keeping Establishment control of the leadership positions was more important to them than getting rid of Gaetz.

They didn't offer to resign their seats in Congress - they'd have kept those.  They'd have just been out of the GOP conference, which wouldn't really have mattered anyway after the leadership elections.

The problem with that scenario is that it was setting up Gaetz & Co. as martyrs to the cause who were ultimately victorious.  Sure they lose committee seats for whatever time remains in this congressional term, but they'd have been absolute heroes to many for getting Jordan in as Speaker.  So ultimately, that offer really didn't sweeten the pot.

The nice thing about Hern is that he hasn't been in Congress as long as McCarthy, Scalise, etc, so he is less a part of that establishment.

If you add up the minimum 79+ (half of the total membership of the Republican study group, meaning the minimum number that voted him as chair), plus the Freedom Caucus, that gives him a clear majority of the entire GOP caucus.

If you want someone who was more conservative than McCarthy, and less tied to the establishment, he's your most electable guy.

[Cyber Liberty]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Kevin Hern has announced he is going to run for speaker of the House after Jim Jordan's attempt failed.
Kevin Hern currently is the Congressman who benefits most from the current wars in Ukraine and Israel, per his stock holdings.
Here are more of his unusual trades:

2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
Kevin Hern has a tendency of buying military companies before news. For example, Rep. Kevin Hern bought Lockheed Martin stocks back in August 2021. He bought another $100k in $LMT just 2 weeks before Lockheed Martin won the $10.9 billion Air Force contract.
2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

I follow Unusual Whales.

[libertybele]

Ever heard that saying “half a loaf is better than no bread?”  You are not going to elect right wingers in most districts.  There are just tons of people in the northeast, on the west coast, and cities in between.  Either we welcome squishes into the coalition, or the dems will happily lord over us for all eternity.

Well, perhaps that ship has sailed long ago for the GOP. The GOP is no longer a party with conservative principles.  As for the DEMS reigning for all eternity - why do you think they're allowing so many ILLEGALS in?  Eventually they'll give them voting rights.

The GOP has all but died -- IMHO because they've become centrists rather than remain right wing conservatives.  You can't continue to appease your opposition and expect to win.

[libertybele]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
BREAKING: Kevin Hern has announced he is going to run for speaker of the House after Jim Jordan's attempt failed.
Kevin Hern currently is the Congressman who benefits most from the current wars in Ukraine and Israel, per his stock holdings.
Here are more of his unusual trades:

2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
Kevin Hern has a tendency of buying military companies before news. For example, Rep. Kevin Hern bought Lockheed Martin stocks back in August 2021. He bought another $100k in $LMT just 2 weeks before Lockheed Martin won the $10.9 billion Air Force contract.
2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

But of course .... he'll be the next Speaker. Follow the $$.  Line the pockets.

[bigheadfred]

I follow Unusual Whales.

An adventure story from Walmart?

[Maj. Bill Martin]

But of course .... he'll be the next Speaker. Follow the $$.  Line the pockets.

Okay, then elect Emmert.

[libertybele]

Okay, then elect Emmert.

Nah ... how about they elect Donalds?

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Nah ... how about they elect Donalds?

Don't think there's a shot at electing a member of the Freedom Caucus.  Just being black and inexperienced isn't enough to overcome that.

For what it is worth, Hern is a completely self-made, wealthy businessman worth tens of millions before he even got to Congress.  So to the extent he made more money on investments, he had a lot more to invest.

Also, he has consistently voted against aid to Ukraine, so the implication of saying that he "profits from war" is misleading as hell.

[mystery-ak]

Joey Mannarino
@JoeyMannarinoUS
·
4h
Kevin McCarthy just endorsed Tom Emmer as Speaker.

Let me make this really clear, Emmer might be the worst GOP member of the House.

Under no circumstance can we allow Emmer to ascend to Speaker.

[libertybele]

Don't think there's a shot at electing a member of the Freedom Caucus.  Just being black and inexperienced isn't enough to overcome that.

For what it is worth, Hern is a completely self-made, wealthy businessman worth tens of millions before he even got to Congress.  So to the extent he made more money on investments, he had a lot more to invest.

Also, he has consistently voted against aid to Ukraine, so the implication of saying that he "profits from war" is misleading as hell.

Ok -- thanks for the info on Hern.

[libertybele]

Joey Mannarino
@JoeyMannarinoUS
·
4h
Kevin McCarthy just endorsed Tom Emmer as Speaker.

Let me make this really clear, Emmer might be the worst GOP member of the House.

Under no circumstance can we allow Emmer to ascend to Speaker.

Unfortunately with McCarthy's endorsement, I have a feeling that he will be our next Speaker.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Unfortunately with McCarthy's endorsement, I have a feeling that he will be our next Speaker.

My guess is the only reason whomever "Joey Mannarino" is (never heard of the guy before this...) doesn't like Emmer is because Trump doesn't like Emmer, and has come out against him.  For some context....

"In conversations Friday, Trump made clear he was concerned by the prospect of Emmer in the speaker’s chair, telling people he believed the Minnesota Republican was not a fan, according to two people familiar with those private talks. Trump has complained, they say, that Emmer has not forcefully defended him against the indictments he is facing. He has also pointed to Emmer’s criticism of him following the Trump-inspired Jan. 6 Capitol riot, and reports — which Emmer strenuously denied — that as then-chair of the House GOP campaign arm, he advised Republican candidates to avoid mentioning Trump."

Of course the criticisms are not policy based - they're all just Trump's hurt feelings.  But my guess is that there are enough hardcore MAGA people in the House to essentially "veto" Emmert as well.

Personally, those are all excellent reasons that I'd support Emmer, but realistically, the House MAGA's likely would follow Trump's marching orders and "veto" Emmert just like they vetoed McCarthy and Scalise.

Of course, when the MAGA's veto a third Speaker supported by a majority, the rest of the GOP caucus is going to be even more sick of the Freedom Caucus than they already are.  Another reason why I think a FC Speaker is DOA.

I'll take literally anyone who isn't FC or the pure RINO "Problem Solvers Caucus".  That still leaves 160 or so who'd be fine.

[Maj. Bill Martin]

Ever heard that saying “half a loaf is better than no bread?”  You are not going to elect right wingers in most districts.  There are just tons of people in the northeast, on the west coast, and cities in between.  Either we welcome squishes into the coalition, or the dems will happily lord over us for all eternity.

Truth.

The other truth is that a lot of those RINOs will actually support some conservative legislation if they believe it can pass, and that it will have the support of enough of their voters.  That's why the RINO's jumped on board with the Contract with America.  So it is possible.

But those conditions do not exist when you have this narrow a majority in only one house of Congress, and the Democrats control everything else.  The RINO's are not going to be willing to endure a long shutdown where Republicans look like a minority trying to impose their view on a majority.

The way to turn the country in a more conservative direction is to win more House seats to increase the margin, and then win either the Senate or Presidency, preferably both.  And even that only works if the Republican President you elects believes in fiscal restraint.

Unfortunately, the odds of that happening in 2024 look vanishingly small.  And changing Speakers won't make a damn bit of difference in the face of those underlying dynamics.

[Hoodat]

unusual_whales
@unusual_whales
Kevin Hern has a tendency of buying military companies before news. For example, Rep. Kevin Hern bought Lockheed Martin stocks back in August 2021. He bought another $100k in $LMT just 2 weeks before Lockheed Martin won the $10.9 billion Air Force contract.
2:56 PM · Oct 20, 2023

No thanks.  I don't want another Pelosi or Feinstein.  Unfettered corruption is got us where we are now.  If one of us was doing what Hern does (insider trading), we would be in prison.

[Hoodat]

Also, he has consistently voted against aid to Ukraine, so the implication of saying that he "profits from war" is misleading as hell.

Money for Ukraine isn't going to defense contractors.