Russia Starts Bugging Out
https://www.battleswarmblog.com/?p=53264Lets look at the news that Russia has announced a complete withdrawal from Kherson oblast north/west of the Dnipro River.
First up: A big picture overview from Peter Zeihan, that I have some minor to moderate quibbles with.
Takeaways:• Russia has announced withdrawing from the Kherson pocket, which is their only territory west of the Dnipro River.
• “Reports at this point indicate that the Russians are withdrawing at full speed from all positions.”
• Not a rout…yet.
• “Based on whose statistics you’re looking at, they’re somewhere between 20,000 and 40,000 Russian forces in the area, but it’s generally accepted on both sides these are the best troops that the Russians have, with the best training and the best equipment.”
• Those Russians haven’t been properly supplied for a month due to the Kerch Strait Bridge attack. “Which is the only heavy rail connection that can handle freight transport from Russia proper to the southern front.”
• “Everything now has to come in by truck and the Russians have lost the vast majority of their tactical truck support fleet for the military and are now using civilian vehicles, making them very vulnerable.”
• “Not enough shells and not enough fuel have been getting to the Kherson front.”
• One result: For the last two weeks, Ukrainian artillery has received zero counter-battery fire. “So the Ukrainians have just been able to plug away with whatever ammo they have.”
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mbl1v_4vqbANext up: Suchomimus offers a detailed map update. Zeihan is a geopolitical generalist jack of all trades, but detailed video and geolocation analysis is all Suchomimus does.
Takeaways:• Russia has blown up most (probably all) of the bridges over the Inhulets River.
• Russia has several ferries to run troops and equipment over the Dnipro, along with rallying point to stage units for withdrawal. Some of the staging areas have been hit by Ukrainian artillery, but satellite photos show Russian forces spread out in those areas to minimize damage.
• No evidence of heavy vehicles using those ferries yet. “It’s unknown if these ferries and barges can actually support anything heavier or not, and if they can, it’s likely they can only carry one at a time.”
• There are two ferry loading points in Kherson city itself.
• There are also Russian Raptor class patrol boats operating in the Dnipro, which makes sense.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7Bg_3-UVyI
