Is This World War III?

[Kamaji]

Is This World War III?

Don’t fool yourself that Vladimir Putin’s ambition stops at Ukraine’s borders.

By Dan Gelernter
March 1, 2022

We don’t need to dwell on the question of who is at fault for the war. Suffice to say, if you voted for Joe Biden, or called the theft of the 2020 election a conspiracy theory, then changing your Facebook profile picture to include a little Ukrainian flag won’t quite make up for it. All those people who bewailed Donald Trump as a threat to humanity and a Russian pawn should be upset right now, watching their friends in Washington, D.C., bring about everything they claimed was going to happen under the previous administration. Instead, these people are trying to figure out how they can still blame Trump while he looks on from his comfortable compound in Mar-a-Lago.

CNN claims Trump is endorsing Putin when he points out how much smarter Putin is than Biden, but it doesn’t stick. The lie lacks conviction. It’s obvious to most people that Biden can say “We won’t defend Ukraine” only so many times before Putin says, “Well, OK, then . . .”

Now we cap off a year of smashing our economy with a new world war. But is it a world war? It could be, but there is still time to prevent it.

Last March in this publication, I explained how America’s weakness and Europe’s greed would lead to a new global conflict with Russia and China. Here we are at its doorstep. Part one of the predicted disaster—Russian aggression westward—is reality. But part two—Chinese aggression eastward—hangs in the balance.

*  *  *

The American government is fronted by an illegitimate imposter and run from the shadows by faceless officials. We are, for the moment, out of the game. China has a two-year window, running up to the next American presidential election, in which Beijing can invade Taiwan with impunity. If that happens, then World War III is an inevitability: We may be able to postpone the final reckoning, but there will be no avoiding it. America won’t enter the war over Taiwan itself, but Taiwan won’t be the last thing China invades, just as Ukraine won’t be the last thing Russia invades. But we’re not quite there . . . yet.

*  *  *

Source:  https://amgreatness.com/2022/03/01/is-this-world-war-iii/

[Free Vulcan]

Not right now, but it could be. Let's not forget the lessons of WWI.

Beyond that, Ukraine is much more of a threat to Europe than the US.

If the Chinese take Taiwan, that would be economic disaster for the entire free world, and worse.

[Kamaji]

Not right now, but it could be. Let's not forget the lessons of WWI.

Beyond that, Ukraine is much more of a threat to Europe than the US.

If the Chinese take Taiwan, that would be economic disaster for the entire free world, and worse.

That was the basic take-away that I got from the article.  Ukraine, by itself, is not prelude to WWIII, but China going into Taiwan combined with Ukraine, would probably lead to WWIII.

[Free Vulcan]

That was the basic take-away that I got from the article.  Ukraine, by itself, is not prelude to WWIII, but China going into Taiwan combined with Ukraine, would probably lead to WWIII.

I was nearly aghast when I read how big of the percentage Taiwan has of the chip market. As one website put it, the worlds supply chain starts with Taiwan.

If China conquered them, they would own the board. They could literally give the US a dirt nap with that kind of power. We are talking Mad Max kinds of scenarios.

[Kamaji]

I was nearly aghast when I read how big of the percentage Taiwan has of the chip market. As one website put it, the worlds supply chain starts with Taiwan.

If China conquered them, they would own the board. They could literally give the US a dirt nap with that kind of power. We are talking Mad Max kinds of scenarios.

Yes we are.

[DefiantMassRINO]

The more immediate probability is an increase in gasoline tanker hi-jackings.

[GtHawk]

The more immediate probability is an increase in gasoline tanker hi-jackings.

What I remember is the frequent times Tankers rolled up on a closed station and pumped the gas out of the tanks, sometimes returning later presenting them selves as an independent supplier and selling the station back it's own gas. Return with us now to those thrilling(Hah!) days of yesteryear, when we had an incompetent president, runaway inflation, high gas prices, limited oil production and a world in turmoil! Joe Biden never had an original thought or idea, he's so bad he has even stolen the Carter presidency and pumped it full of steroids.

[Smokin Joe]

Not right now, but it could be. Let's not forget the lessons of WWI.

Beyond that, Ukraine is much more of a threat to Europe than the US.

If the Chinese take Taiwan, that would be economic disaster for the entire free world, and worse.

There should be a quiet Manhattan Project style development of chip manufacturing and rare earths mining and processing going on, our one real strategic material weak point.

>crickets<

[DB]

There should be a quiet Manhattan Project style development of chip manufacturing and rare earths mining and processing going on, our one real strategic material weak point.

>crickets<

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-arizona-chip-factory-2021-06-01/

I understand that they are building it 24 hours a day here.

[DCPatriot]

@Free Vulcan  @Cyber Liberty @Smokin Joe @Kamaji @DefiantMassRINO @DB

Help me out here, please?  I'm piggy-backing upon the Computer-Chip manufacturing 'dilemma'.

Other than convenience and homogeneity, what exactly would be the tragedy of losing Taiwan to the Communist Chinese in this day and age?

I'm speaking strictly of the banking systems, their stock exchanges from an investor's POV.

They're all electronic and backed up by 'Clouds' and copies sent to God-Knows-Where.

The Chinese have already adapted to a system to accommodate Capitalism...crony or otherwise. 

Am I exposing my ignorance here?     

[Fishrrman]

Smokin' Joe posted:
"There should be a quiet Manhattan Project style development of chip manufacturing and rare earths mining and processing going on, our one real strategic material weak point."

You're right.
But with the current regime?
Not a chance.

But to count on Taiwan as the only "source" of chips that the rest of the world runs on... is insanity.
Sooner or later, China is going to make their move.
Probably... sooner.

I've read elsewhere some off-the-wall posts about Taiwan.
To wit, those Taiwanese who are most adamantly anti-mainland are in the process of moving their assets elsewhere. As in, they realize the ship is gonna sink and they're getting their lifeboats ready.
Also, amongst the younger Taiwanese, there is far less animosity where the mainland is concerned...

[Kamaji]

There should be a quiet Manhattan Project style development of chip manufacturing and rare earths mining and processing going on, our one real strategic material weak point.

>crickets<

[DB]

@Free Vulcan  @Cyber Liberty @Smokin Joe @Kamaji @DefiantMassRINO @DB

Help me out here, please?  I'm piggy-backing upon the Computer-Chip manufacturing 'dilemma'.

Other than convenience and homogeneity, what exactly would be the tragedy of losing Taiwan to the Communist Chinese in this day and age?

I'm speaking strictly of the banking systems, their stock exchanges from an investor's POV.

They're all electronic and backed up by 'Clouds' and copies sent to God-Knows-Where.

The Chinese have already adapted to a system to accommodate Capitalism...crony or otherwise. 

Am I exposing my ignorance here?   

Simply put it would be Armageddon to the electronics industry - including my business.

[Cyber Liberty]

https://www.reuters.com/technology/tsmc-says-construction-has-started-arizona-chip-factory-2021-06-01/

I understand that they are building it 24 hours a day here.

Where exactly is this first one?  I liked the product from TSMC, they're top-notch.

[DB]

Where exactly is this first one?  I liked the product from TSMC, they're top-notch.

The only thing I found was the northwest corner of the 303 and near 43rd. I don't see a 43rd street anywhere near that area on Google Earth...

My daughter's boyfriend is working on that site so I can find out more - in time.

[Cyber Liberty]

The only thing I found was the northwest corner of the 303 and near 43rd. I don't see a 43rd street anywhere near that area on Google Earth...

My daughter's boyfriend is working on that site so I can find out more - in time.

That would be 303 and 43rd Ave.  West valley.  I see, not SE valley like Intel and NXP.  Etc.

[DB]

I found it:

[Cyber Liberty]

I found it:

It's big!  I drove by there a month or so ago...

[Free Vulcan]

@Free Vulcan  @Cyber Liberty @Smokin Joe @Kamaji @DefiantMassRINO @DB

Help me out here, please?  I'm piggy-backing upon the Computer-Chip manufacturing 'dilemma'.

Other than convenience and homogeneity, what exactly would be the tragedy of losing Taiwan to the Communist Chinese in this day and age?

I'm speaking strictly of the banking systems, their stock exchanges from an investor's POV.

They're all electronic and backed up by 'Clouds' and copies sent to God-Knows-Where.

The Chinese have already adapted to a system to accommodate Capitalism...crony or otherwise. 

Am I exposing my ignorance here?   

@DCPatriot

Taiwan produces about 2/3 of the chips in the world. 3/4 of the high end stuff. Their main customers are the US and China.

As one website I read on them said, Taiwan is the starting point to most of the supply chains in the world.

If China conquered them, they could cut off chips to anyone, mainly us. They could all but end our manufacturing base and force us to buy everything from them, and if a steep black market for chips developed, nothing and no one would be safe.

Every petty crook would be breaking into everything to steal chips. Your home, car, garage, your business, your job. Everything from factories, distribution, transportation, energy, agriculture, govt, military, communication, medical and beyond would be a target.

There's things like server farms, hospitals, high end vehicles like commercial jets, etc. with top dollar, lucrative electronics. The cartels would get in on that and gun anyone down who got in the way. They could disrupt any step in the supply chain that is worth their time to steal the chips.

The chaos and anarchy would basically force the govt to declare martial law just to protect their own stuff. The scenarios are nightmarish.

[Kamaji]

@DCPatriot

Taiwan produces about 2/3 of the chips in the world. 3/4 of the high end stuff. Their main customers are the US and China.

As one website I read on them said, Taiwan is the starting point to most of the supply chains in the world.

If China conquered them, they could cut off chips to anyone, mainly us. They could all but end our manufacturing base and force us to buy everything from them, and if a steep black market for chips developed, nothing and no one would be safe.

Every petty crook would be breaking into everything to steal chips. Your home, car, garage, your business, your job. Everything from factories, distribution, transportation, energy, agriculture, govt, military, communication, medical and beyond would be a target.

There's things like server farms, hospitals, high end vehicles like commercial jets, etc. with top dollar, lucrative electronics. The cartels would get in on that and gun anyone down who got in the way. They could disrupt any step in the supply chain that is worth their time to steal the chips.

The chaos and anarchy would basically force the govt to declare martial law just to protect their own stuff. The scenarios are nightmarish.

Not only that, but every chip coming out of a China-controlled Taiwanese factory would almost certainly have malware and a backdoor installed that would send all data running on the chip to data servers in China.

[Smokin Joe]

@Free Vulcan  @Cyber Liberty @Smokin Joe @Kamaji @DefiantMassRINO @DB

Help me out here, please?  I'm piggy-backing upon the Computer-Chip manufacturing 'dilemma'.

Other than convenience and homogeneity, what exactly would be the tragedy of losing Taiwan to the Communist Chinese in this day and age?

I'm speaking strictly of the banking systems, their stock exchanges from an investor's POV.

They're all electronic and backed up by 'Clouds' and copies sent to God-Knows-Where.

The Chinese have already adapted to a system to accommodate Capitalism...crony or otherwise. 

Am I exposing my ignorance here?   

Everything, from cell phones to washing machines to vehicles to subsystems in buildings you don't even see (but would really miss) runs on microprocessors. Even oil drilling rigs are dependent on electronics for monitoring and control, and agriculture is heavily dependent on gps and computer monitored systems for planting and application of ag chemicals (fertilizers, especially). We aren't even going into aviation, weapons systems, or the like.

Cut off the supply of new chips, and those systems will only run until their electronics degrade, and without spare parts, that will be that.

Taiwan semiconductor foundry market share is shown in the charts below.


Image source: https://www.trendforce.com/presscenter/news/20210305-10693.html

With China controlling Taiwan's share, they would control 70% of the world's semiconductor production, and 95% of the rare earths critical to that manufacture (as well as the magnets that make sensors used to operate everything from crank and camshaft timing to servomechanisms to speakers).

In short, the rest of the world would be dependent on China for not only day to day subsystems, but those with military and aerospace applications as well. Not good.

The production of those raw materials and the products is a strategic resource, just like energy production, and energy production relies on computers and computerized subsystems as well.

When I started in the oil industry, we had no computers on location. None. Hand calculators were the bees knees.

Now, in steering a horizontal well, I am  surrounded by screens, connected to the cloud, and have four computers in the lab with me, each dedicated to part of that process. There are likely another 15-20 computers on location from monitoring systems to control systems and logging while drilling, the latter the data we use to steer the well in the target.

While microprocessors might be still available in limited numbers and at much higher prices, even a modern upscale automobile will have up to 100 microprocessor regulated subsystems in it governing fuel mixture and engine timing, instrument display, monitoring tire pressure, GPS and navigation, exterior imaging, antilock braking, traction control, cabin temperature, lane position, proximity alerts, automatic parking, suspension stiffness, and gear shifting, some with multiple modes.

We'd be back to basic vehicles with absolutely no whistles and bells in no time.

[Free Vulcan]

Not only that, but every chip coming out of a China-controlled Taiwanese factory would almost certainly have malware and a backdoor installed that would send all data running on the chip to data servers in China.

Yeah, they could leap ahead in technology without even lifting a finger. Nat'l security would be a quaint idea from the past.

[DCPatriot]

Thank you guys.

It seems to me that any advantage to China would be short-lived however. 

We all remember what happens when the Sleeping Giant awakens.  As it's been said here, they're working 24/7 in Arizona right now.

[DB]

Thank you guys.

It seems to me that any advantage to China would be short-lived however. 

We all remember what happens when the Sleeping Giant awakens.  As it's been said here, they're working 24/7 in Arizona right now.

I've read reports that the foundries where these chips are made have been setup to be destroyed in the event of invasion. If so, that's dangerous all by itself...

[Fishrrman]

Joe wrote:
"While microprocessors might be still available in limited numbers and at much higher prices, even a modern upscale automobile will have up to 100 microprocessor regulated subsystems in it governing fuel mixture and engine timing, instrument display, monitoring tire pressure, GPS and navigation, exterior imaging, antilock braking, traction control, cabin temperature, lane position, proximity alerts, automatic parking, suspension stiffness, and gear shifting, some with multiple modes.
We'd be back to basic vehicles with absolutely no whistles and bells in no time."

OK, let's say there were no more microprocessors (or at least wouldn't be a sufficient supply of them for a good number of years)...

Why not go back to building cars, trucks, trains and airplanes WITHOUT them?
Such as, 1957 Chevys again?

This is intended to be a serious question.
The world ran in the 1950's without chips.
It could do so again, at least for a few decades, if need be.