Is This World War III?

[DB]

Joe wrote:
"While microprocessors might be still available in limited numbers and at much higher prices, even a modern upscale automobile will have up to 100 microprocessor regulated subsystems in it governing fuel mixture and engine timing, instrument display, monitoring tire pressure, GPS and navigation, exterior imaging, antilock braking, traction control, cabin temperature, lane position, proximity alerts, automatic parking, suspension stiffness, and gear shifting, some with multiple modes.
We'd be back to basic vehicles with absolutely no whistles and bells in no time."

OK, let's say there were no more microprocessors (or at least wouldn't be a sufficient supply of them for a good number of years)...

Why not go back to building cars, trucks, trains and airplanes WITHOUT them?
Such as, 1957 Chevys again?

This is intended to be a serious question.
The world ran in the 1950's without chips.
It could do so again, at least for a few decades, if need be.

Chips are in everything. Everything Internet requires them. Traffic lights require them. Energy production require them. All forms of communications short of a written piece of paper require them. It would be Armageddon for the modern world.

[DCPatriot]

Joe wrote:
"While microprocessors might be still available in limited numbers and at much higher prices, even a modern upscale automobile will have up to 100 microprocessor regulated subsystems in it governing fuel mixture and engine timing, instrument display, monitoring tire pressure, GPS and navigation, exterior imaging, antilock braking, traction control, cabin temperature, lane position, proximity alerts, automatic parking, suspension stiffness, and gear shifting, some with multiple modes.
We'd be back to basic vehicles with absolutely no whistles and bells in no time."

OK, let's say there were no more microprocessors (or at least wouldn't be a sufficient supply of them for a good number of years)...

Why not go back to building cars, trucks, trains and airplanes WITHOUT them?
Such as, 1957 Chevys again?

This is intended to be a serious question.
The world ran in the 1950's without chips.
It could do so again, at least for a few decades, if need be.

@Fishrrman

Exactly, my point!  Furthermore, as another pointed out, they couldn't shut your car down on a whim.

In fact, the vehicle might to confiscated by the government for National Security reasons...to cart politicians from place to place while you're sheltering in place.

[DB]

@Fishrrman

Exactly, my point!  Furthermore, as another pointed out, they couldn't shut your car down on a whim.

In fact, the vehicle might to confiscated by the government for National Security reasons...to cart politicians from place to place while you're sheltering in place.

Remember the days of a choke? Pumping the peddle a few times before attempting to start the car on a cold morning?

Nearly every facet of your engine is controlled by computer these days.

[240B]

Refrigerators, some toasters, some central air units, hot water heaters, ovens, microwaves, and on and on and on, all use chips. Some people cannot enter or control their own homes without electronics. When Taiwan falls, it will affect 'everything', much more than just cars and computers. Everything will be affected, down to the smallest most insignificant part of normal life.

[roamer_1]

Remember the days of a choke? Pumping the peddle a few times before attempting to start the car on a cold morning?

Nearly every facet of your engine is controlled by computer these days.

Heck, everything I got except my minivan still has a choke.

Most of what has become computerized really doesn't need to be. My washer and dryer are heavy duty Speed Queen - About the only ones on the market that still have mechanical controls. I guarantee they will outlast me, and probably find a second life washing horse blankets and such down at the ranch long after I am gone. There ain't a single one of the computerized versions that can come anywhere close to that brag.

I am ALL FOR un-complicating things. Irreducible complexity is useful for longevity and simplicity in repair.

[DCPatriot]

Remember the days of a choke? Pumping the peddle a few times before attempting to start the car on a cold morning?

Nearly every facet of your engine is controlled by computer these days.

LOL!  I remember "plugs, points and condenser".  Remember having to pour gasoline directly into my carburetor when my tank ran dry.

Today, I cringe every time I have to lift the hood to check the oil.

Was looking at the price of used cars the other day.  Totally INSANE!!

In 2002, I purchased a 2000 BMW M5 with 13K on the clock for $43K.  Today, a 2020 M5 with 29K miles sells for $114K.  USED with TWICE the mileage.

G.T.F.O.

[DB]

Heck, everything I got except my minivan still has a choke.

Most of what has become computerized really doesn't need to be. My washer and dryer are heavy duty Speed Queen - About the only ones on the market that still have mechanical controls. I guarantee they will outlast me, and probably find a second life washing horse blankets and such down at the ranch long after I am gone. There ain't a single one of the computerized versions that can come anywhere close to that brag.

I am ALL FOR un-complicating things. Irreducible complexity is useful for longevity and simplicity in repair.

All my old cars crapped out long before the modern Toyota's I've had.

[DB]

LOL!  I remember "plugs, points and condenser".  Remember having to pour gasoline directly into my carburetor when my tank ran dry.

Today, I cringe every time I have to lift the hood to check the oil.

Was looking at the price of used cars the other day.  Totally INSANE!!

In 2002, I purchased a 2000 BMW M5 with 13K on the clock for $43K.  Today, a 2020 M5 with 29K miles sells for $114K.  USED with TWICE the mileage.

G.T.F.O.

My wife's 2017 car was a few weeks ago totaled... A used identical model cost more than what we paid for it new. Agree... WTH...

[DCPatriot]

My wife's 2017 car was a few weeks ago totaled... A used identical model cost more than what we paid for it new. Agree... WTH...

And if you weren't experienced and/or lucky enough to get "replacement value" insurance coverage, you're SOL.   

[roamer_1]

All my old cars crapped out long before the modern Toyota's I've had.

My 79 Chevy is on it's second rebuild since I bought it. I will go through it one more time I think. Not sure yet, not because it won't do - Heck I would prefer it - But it is getting mighty hard to get parts for Chevy square bodies now. Was gonna jump up to an 85, but it really don't matter. The parts are going away.

So we will see. I would prefer to rebuild it one more time. But if I decide I can't get it done reasonably, then I am finally going to have to go up into the 90s or oughts... That's a nuther kind of problem. Because of all the complexity, and miles and miles of wiring and a gajillion sensors that are going to be getting bad by now, the complications of rebuilding anything 90's and up make that a pretty hard sell. It's horror highway to rebuild em as a practical matter.

[roamer_1]

All my old cars crapped out long before the modern Toyota's I've had.

And btw, that ain't the longevity I am speaking of. It may go farther, but when it is done, there is nothing left. You throw it away.

That Chevy of mine has gone through so many rebuilds that its mileage has nothing to do with it anymore. Who even knows how many miles is on it, how many times it rolled over...

THAT is longevity.

[DB]

And if you weren't experienced and/or lucky enough to get "replacement value" insurance coverage, you're SOL.   

I went to war with Farmers Insurance as the accident wasn't our fault at all and both person that caused the accident and us were fully insured. The other guy totaled 4 cars...

In the end I got more than I paid for the car new but was still $2.5k short on the replacement. The replacement has about 18k less miles on it (about 45k) and is in really good condition - at least from what we can tell...

[GtHawk]

Remember the days of a choke? Pumping the peddle a few times before attempting to start the car on a cold morning?

Nearly every facet of your engine is controlled by computer these days.

Points, plugs, condenser, doing the timing yourself or rebuilding the carb when it was leaky or gummed up. Doing all that at home instead of having to have the dealer hook up his computer, and no transverse engine front wheel drive which meant you had room to work on things.

[Smokin Joe]

Joe wrote:
"While microprocessors might be still available in limited numbers and at much higher prices, even a modern upscale automobile will have up to 100 microprocessor regulated subsystems in it governing fuel mixture and engine timing, instrument display, monitoring tire pressure, GPS and navigation, exterior imaging, antilock braking, traction control, cabin temperature, lane position, proximity alerts, automatic parking, suspension stiffness, and gear shifting, some with multiple modes.
We'd be back to basic vehicles with absolutely no whistles and bells in no time."

OK, let's say there were no more microprocessors (or at least wouldn't be a sufficient supply of them for a good number of years)...

Why not go back to building cars, trucks, trains and airplanes WITHOUT them?
Such as, 1957 Chevys again?

This is intended to be a serious question.
The world ran in the 1950's without chips.
It could do so again, at least for a few decades, if need be.

I agree, but the transition will be rough.
On the consumer end...
How many drivers can read a dash full of gauges and interpret them to keep from destroying their vehicle?
How many can drive a manual transmission? (Yes, automatics have been around since the '50s, and those would still work, but there is a reason manual transmissions were standard).
How many will be able to drive on bad roads without traction control, shift-on-the-fly 4 wheel drive, all wheel drive, anti-lock brakes?

Vehicles start and run better in cold weather with fuel injection, how many will learn to use a choke?

Yes, we can do all that. I would think the basic plans would be somewhere, but what robot is going to build them?

What pattern makers and mold makers are going to tool up for it when the CDC goes down?
So much of manufacturing is automated (computerized) now, I wonder how many people (who have NOT been taught from their youth to work with their hands) will be able to man the assembly lines. How many are even proficient enough at math to read a micrometer?

And, even if all that can be accomplished (and I believe it could be), in time,

Will the adherents to the religion of Climate Change allow it?

Those computer systems aren't just for convenience, many of them are to increase engine efficiency to reduce emissions (with the side effect of increasing engine life).
An amazing amount of stuff holding that engine back, horsepower-wise, was there to keep emissions down.

[Smokin Joe]

Heck, everything I got except my minivan still has a choke.

Most of what has become computerized really doesn't need to be. My washer and dryer are heavy duty Speed Queen - About the only ones on the market that still have mechanical controls. I guarantee they will outlast me, and probably find a second life washing horse blankets and such down at the ranch long after I am gone. There ain't a single one of the computerized versions that can come anywhere close to that brag.

I am ALL FOR un-complicating things. Irreducible complexity is useful for longevity and simplicity in repair.

As am I. We got rid of the Whirlpool Duet pair and found a pair of old Speed Queens. Clothes come out cleaner, I have been able to fix both units a few times, and they get clothes cleaner, quicker. I even jerry-rigged the dryer timer when it went out the first time to get the cycles we used, at the expense of the ones we did not. When I could afford it, (most expensive part in the dryer), I replaced it, but it is mechanical.

The furnace is a huge holdover from a remodel done on the house in the '60s. No chips. Works as long as I oil the bearings once a year and change the filters (two 20X25's).

But, when I get home I think I will stuff some old laptops in a faraday cage, just in case...and a calculator or two. I don't remember what happened to my old slide rule, and wasn't that proficient with it before calculators made them obsolete, anyway.

There is an awful lot that used to be done without all the fancy and convenient gizmos we have now, but those sure save time. Gotta admit, when the time comes, I will miss the how-to videos on YouTube...

[Smokin Joe]

All my old cars crapped out long before the modern Toyota's I've had.

Metallurgy, design, and machining have come a ways since computerization, and fuel injection is easier on an engine (less cylinder washing, oil dilution, and general wear). Most modern engines, serviced regularly with good filters and the right fluids should last 200-250K. In the '80s, getting 100K out of an engine was considered good.

That fuel thing is outrageously important. We ran Chevy 350s on propane or gas, but mostly propane in the company fleet in my first job in the oil patch (1970s) and those trucks could get 200K on an engine if they were serviced properly in the right hands The head mechanic for the company credited it to a lack of carbon buildup in the engines and a lack of cold start cylinder washing from excess fuel. 

[Smokin Joe]

My 79 Chevy is on it's second rebuild since I bought it. I will go through it one more time I think. Not sure yet, not because it won't do - Heck I would prefer it - But it is getting mighty hard to get parts for Chevy square bodies now. Was gonna jump up to an 85, but it really don't matter. The parts are going away.

So we will see. I would prefer to rebuild it one more time. But if I decide I can't get it done reasonably, then I am finally going to have to go up into the 90s or oughts... That's a nuther kind of problem. Because of all the complexity, and miles and miles of wiring and a gajillion sensors that are going to be getting bad by now, the complications of rebuilding anything 90's and up make that a pretty hard sell. It's horror highway to rebuild em as a practical matter.

https://www.autometaldirect.com/1979-Chevy-C10_Pickup-grille-md-148-c-28.html?gclid=CjwKCAiAyPyQBhB6EiwAFUuakj4ErQfHL8kNgn-7nTs90UTIFbfyXXCKGjh2rEnSgnNGPkfFGoCJGhoCtJIQAvD_BwE
https://www.ecklers.com/chevy_trucks?gclid=CjwKCAiAyPyQBhB6EiwAFUuaknB4X1OZCP01-WMpE-ZXZ3tEYHyfYmvaBlkFC9rvJIi9ADDitq7TRRoCcsgQAvD_BwE
https://www.classicindustries.com/shop/1979/chevrolet/truck/parts/

https://www.rockauto.com/en/catalog/chevrolet,1979
https://www.lmctruck.com/chevy-gmc-truck-1973-1987

http://www.classicpartsusa.com/category/1979_Truck_Parts
https://www.summitracing.com/search/year/1979/make/chevrolet/model/c10

To name a few...

[roamer_1]

As am I. We got rid of the Whirlpool Duet pair and found a pair of old Speed Queens. Clothes come out cleaner, I have been able to fix both units a few times, and they get clothes cleaner, quicker. I even jerry-rigged the dryer timer when it went out the first time to get the cycles we used, at the expense of the ones we did not. When I could afford it, (most expensive part in the dryer), I replaced it, but it is mechanical.

That's right. And just the raw toughness of them machines... I know you work outside and have foul weather gear... I can throw my Carhartts (top and bottom) AND all my inner wool and hoody and etc all in the washer AT ONCE, and they come up clean as a whistle. None of them fancy machines got a chance at that. It sure is nice to be able to throw even my biggest comforters through right here at home. With my old set all of the above happened at the laundromat.

The furnace is a huge holdover from a remodel done on the house in the '60s. No chips. Works as long as I oil the bearings once a year and change the filters (two 20X25's).

Yep. I rebuilt the one here. Simple, regular thermocouple outfit. It ain't my main heat (wood) but it runs any time I need it to - And I can fix it! THAT's the fizz.

But, when I get home I think I will stuff some old laptops in a faraday cage, just in case...and a calculator or two. I don't remember what happened to my old slide rule, and wasn't that proficient with it before calculators made them obsolete, anyway.

There is an awful lot that used to be done without all the fancy and convenient gizmos we have now, but those sure save time. Gotta admit, when the time comes, I will miss the how-to videos on YouTube...

I am going the other way. As much as I can, I am setting up to function without ANY tech. All that other is no different than butt-warmers in a pickup. If you can do it old skool you can do it always.

Independence is sacrificed to comfort and security every time.

[Smokin Joe]

That's right. And just the raw toughness of them machines... I know you work outside and have foul weather gear... I can throw my Carhartts (top and bottom) AND all my inner wool and hoody and etc all in the washer AT ONCE, and they come up clean as a whistle. None of them fancy machines got a chance at that. It sure is nice to be able to throw even my biggest comforters through right here at home. With my old set all of the above happened at the laundromat.

Yep. I rebuilt the one here. Simple, regular thermocouple outfit. It ain;t my main heat (wood) but it runs any time I need it to - And I can fix it! THAT's the fizz.

I am going the other way. As much as I can, I am setting up to function without ANY tech. All that other is no different than butt-warmers in a pickup. If you can do it old skool you can do it always.

Independence is sacrificed to comfort and security every time.

Oh, for every tool I have there is a hand powered equivalent. I started out buying the basics at yard sales when times were lean, and I can run them well enough. Only exception is the router, and I'd have to custom make a bunch of planes to get there. I could do that, but will pass on fancy trim if I need to. Gotta admit, though I like a table saw a bunch more than a rip saw, but either will get the job done...

[roamer_1]

[...]

To name a few...

Yeah I know... I am speaking more to parts out behind the barn. They're getting rare.

AND, one of the things I would love to take advantage of is overdrive... Which is nearly impossible to do cheaply under the 90s. Especially keeping a stick.

So, it is becoming more likely to use a 90s or 00s for the things that work, and convert it to analog as much as you can.... I think that is becoming the sweet spot, short of just building my own from scratch. Getting pretty close to that - I have an old 2T and some mil axles and a cummins 12valve in the weeds. That's the bones. It would be an act of congress and cost me more than I want... But I would only have to build it once.

[roamer_1]

Oh, for every tool I have there is a hand powered equivalent. I started out buying the basics at yard sales when times were lean, and I can run them well enough. Only exception is the router, and I'd have to custom make a bunch of planes to get there. I could do that, but will pass on fancy trim if I need to. Gotta admit, though I like a table saw a bunch more than a rip saw, but either will get the job done...

That's right - But you are taking it farther than I mean. I will keep a jenny around. I will have solar. I just won't NEED it. If I have to hand-hew I can. But I don't intend that to be the default. However, everything up in the holler so far has been done with an Alaskan chainsaw mill. And I like it like that, I do. Simple and robust. That tool shed up there will be standing long after I am gone. And I will never have to fix it. Solid. Reliable. Not fancy.

[Smokin Joe]

Yeah I know... I am speaking more to parts out behind the barn. They're getting rare.

AND, one of the things I would love to take advantage of is overdrive... Which is nearly impossible to do cheaply under the 90s. Especially keeping a stick.

So, it is becoming more likely to use a 90s or 00s for the things that work, and convert it to analog as much as you can.... I think that is becoming the sweet spot, short of just building my own from scratch. Getting pretty close to that - I have an old 2T and some mil axles and a cummins 12valve in the weeds. That's the bones. It would be an act of congress and cost me more than I want... But I would only have to build it once.

Best I had was a rear end out from under a lincoln I stuffed under my '63 Galaxie back when. IIRC those were 2.73 gears in that pumpkin, and I could cruise with that cast iron C3 ahead of it with the 390 almost at idle...

I miss that car...

[jafo2010]

Our worthless government leaders should realize that the national security is in jeopardy with our complete dependency on certain manufactured items.  Starting with pharmacy.  Time to bring certain industries back to the USA.  And I say that we require companies MUST manufacture 60% of their product in the USA, or be faced with a 20% excise tax on all gross revenue.

Let's face it, there will always be some cheap labor patch of ground, somewhere else,  where items can be made cheaper than here, but if there is a real catastrophic event, this country would be on its knees for 6-12 months, and we can ill afford that scenario.  So, time for our worthless government to step up and do something for THIS NATION, OUR PEOPLE.

[DefiantMassRINO]

No independent Taiwan; far fewer semiconductors for American military, industry, and economy.

If the Chi-coms take Taiwan, they would have America by the short and curlies for as long as it would take to build alternate suppliers.  Chi-coms would have leverage over American military, economic, and foreign policies.

It's poor supply chain management and risk management - a lack of diverse suppliers from diverse regions and countries creates a single point of failure and a significant risk.

National Shares of Global Semiconductor Market:


Source: https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/02/16/semiconductors-us-china-taiwan-technology-innovation-competition/

[Free Vulcan]

No independent Taiwan; far fewer semiconductors for American military, industry, and economy.

If the Chi-coms take Taiwan, they would have America by the short and curlies for as long as it would take to build alternate suppliers.  Chi-coms would have leverage over American military, economic, and foreign policies.

It's poor supply chain management and risk management - a lack of diverse suppliers from diverse regions and countries creates a single point of failure and a significant risk.

It would all but shut down manufacturing. But the scarier part would be the black market for chips. Nothing would be safe.

We're talking building a crows nest and buying a Ma Deuce manned 24/7 to keep the zombies away from the property.