Just found this thread.
Heard New Orleans might get hit bad. I hope not.
NOLA is deep in the cone. All depends on the path, and how strong Ida gets hitting the coast. Based on NHC core wind estimates here are my guessimates of the extremes.
(1) Best Case Scenario- Far west path- Cone hits Vermillion Bay. Winds they would see would be strong T.S ... 50-70 mph. Storm surge of maybe 5-7 feet. Rainfall- ??? Really tough, since being on the dirty side of the storm estimates can be all over the map. But they still would consideably less than a direct hit of just east of storm passing.
(2) Worst case scenario- Direct hit. That far inland as a Cat 4 at the coast? 115 mph to 120 mph is not out of the question. Catastrophic damage much like what you saw last year in Lake Charles with Laura last year. And of course that does not take in account if the levees don't hold. Storm surge? They are expecting 10-15 surge at the coast. It could conceivably be near or a little less than that in NOLA.
And finally, when you check NHC's charts for wind probability for NOLA... Here are the odds at the last advisory.
>39 MPH- 93% chance
>58 MPH- 67% chance
>74 MPH (Hurricane)- 39% chance