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Author Topic: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates  (Read 6074 times)

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #75 on: August 28, 2021, 06:20:18 pm »
Storm has incredibly stayed on this 315 degree trajectionary since it was in the vicinty of Cuba. 

I am wondering if what Ida may start following is a phenomenon that I call the Gilbert Effect.  Those who watch hurricanes may remember that monster back in 1988.  It was so strong and powerful that it defied normal climatological and oceanic influences like highs, lows and steering currents.  That storm took made an exact bee line from the Caribbean to the Mexican coast.

Forecasters at the time, thought the storm (esp. since it was in Sep) would be drawn northwestward  by early fall lows, and the general corilois effect  toward a Texas landfall.  It never happened.  Gilbert had a mind of his own, and hit Mexico.

Since the storm is showing similar trajectory persistence, I am wondering if there will be much deviation from the true NW path.  If this ends up being the case,  Landfall would be 40-50 miles east of the present projection, putting the Houma area more in play with the bullseye instead of Morgan City. One other issue, is the path, is will be significantly impact NOLA more...  Wind and surge.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 06:23:18 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #76 on: August 28, 2021, 06:27:39 pm »
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Offline Elderberry

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #77 on: August 28, 2021, 06:27:52 pm »
We have noticed a lot of Louisianans in our SE Houston area looking for places to stay.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #78 on: August 28, 2021, 06:55:06 pm »
I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder.  Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....

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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #79 on: August 28, 2021, 06:59:14 pm »
To give you a feel and scale of how quickly this storm has grown.  At this exact moment there are feeder bands being felt from Ida in Port Arthur, Texas and Cape Coral, Florida.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #80 on: August 28, 2021, 07:13:26 pm »
Just viewed WWL's hurricane update feed.  NHC forcasting 100 mph winds in Baton Rouge.

IF that pans out, that would be the strongest storm in BR's history.  Beating both the 1947 storm and Gustav.
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Offline dfwgator

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #81 on: August 28, 2021, 07:33:47 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 28, 2021, 06:55:06 pm
I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder.  Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....



Looks exactly like Camille.
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #82 on: August 28, 2021, 07:43:00 pm »
Quote from: dfwgator on August 28, 2021, 07:33:47 pm
Looks exactly like Camille.

Camille is the storm that first peaked my interest watching hurricanes.  I can remember as a 12 year old kid, watching the local weathermen helplessly reporting the storm, and what they thought would happen.  You know how bad our forecasting tools were back then?  This meteorologist showed his chalkboard map, and the cone was set between Pensacola and Houston. Basically a 1/3 of the US gulf coast   And...  this just a few days out. 



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Offline catfish1957

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Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #83 on: August 28, 2021, 09:04:18 pm »
4 PM update.  Winds are now 105 mph sustained...... Moving NW @ 16 mph..... Track might be a hair furhter to the east......  Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and NOLA...  all still in cone. 

Public Advisory.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
400 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 87.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

« Last Edit: August 28, 2021, 09:06:48 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #84 on: August 29, 2021, 03:15:49 am »
10 PM Advisory... 

First Kudos to the NHC...  Projected landfall has not deviated over 50 miles for the entire run.  Second...  hopefull there are few or no stragglers near the coast as thing approaches. Widespread storm surge of near 15 feet is expected all the way from Morgan City to the Mouth of the Mississippi.  I am hearing all kind of debate and speculation of how strong this storm will be at landfall.  Generally between 115 and 140 mph sustained winds.  One map feature that may be some good news inland, that I don't see anyone noticing.  There is a tongue of very dry air about 300 miles by 150 miles stretching from about Ft. Smith, Arkansas to Witchita Falls Texas.  If that storm can encounter some of that dry air, it might lessen some of the inland flooding that is expected.


BULLETIN
Hurricane Ida Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
1000 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021

...IDA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY BEFORE LANDFALL...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC WIND
DAMAGE, AND FLOODING RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 88.0W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF HOUMA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #85 on: August 29, 2021, 09:50:31 am »
29 Aug 2021 4A update

Ida strengthens and is approaching SE Louisiana coast, toward Houma/Morgan City area.

NHC advisory

HURRICANE IDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092021
0900 UTC SUN AUG 29 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF ROCKEFELLER WILDLIFE REFUGE LOUISIANA TO THE
ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* VERMILION BAY...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON LOUISIANA TO WEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N  89.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  13 KT
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #86 on: August 29, 2021, 10:01:17 am »
  888cryingkitty Ida  is now the top story in the country. I’m hoping it can diminish to a 3 or two but it really looks catastrophic.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 10:02:21 am by Gefn »
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Offline cato potatoe

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #87 on: August 29, 2021, 10:47:26 am »
This will definitely test the levee upgrades in NOLA.  Zero excuses for anyone to be there, however.
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #88 on: August 29, 2021, 10:54:22 am »
US Gulf Coast residents flee 'extremely dangerous' Hurricane Ida

Quote

Aug 28 (Reuters) - Hurricane Ida intensified over warm Gulf of Mexico waters on Saturday, prompting tens of thousands to flee coastal areas, while President Joe Biden pledged aid to help states quickly recover once the storm has passed.

Forecasters said Ida could make a U.S. landfall on Sunday night as an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 storm on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, generating winds of 140 miles per hour (225 kph), heavy downpours and a tidal surge that could plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline under several feet of water.

On Saturday evening Ida was about 200 miles (320 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, packing top winds of 105 miles per hour (169 kph) and aiming for the Louisiana coast, the National Hurricane Center said.


https://news.trust.org/item/20210828160737-fu09y
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Offline Gefn

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #89 on: August 29, 2021, 10:55:23 am »
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Offline mountaineer

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #90 on: August 29, 2021, 12:41:45 pm »
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #91 on: August 29, 2021, 12:50:02 pm »
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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: T.S Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #92 on: August 29, 2021, 12:58:23 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 28, 2021, 06:55:06 pm
I see beauty in this majestic natural wonder.  Sadly, many people's lives are going to impacted....


They look pretty from orbit, but they are nasty at ground level.
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #93 on: August 29, 2021, 01:06:59 pm »
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #94 on: August 29, 2021, 01:26:50 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #95 on: August 29, 2021, 01:27:01 pm »
7/8AM Advisories from the NHC. 

It doesn't get much worse.  Sustained winds are now 150 mph.  Cat 5 (Greater than  156 mph) is not out of the question, since the eye still has a few hours left before landfall. Houma again still seems to be the target, but this large storm has about an 80 mile diameter wind field of over hurricane force winds, damage will not just be local.  Let's all pray that there are no people near the SE Louisana coast this morning.  Movement has stubbonrly stayed on a NW track since Cuba.  The Northward jaunt has been resisted, for reasons I believe I stated a few updates ago.


Hurricane Ida Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092021
800 AM CDT Sun Aug 29 2021

...800 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OCCURING IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...

An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Southwest Pass, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 105 mph (169 km/h) and a wind
gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 930 mb (27.46 in).


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 89.7W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSE OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.46 INCHES
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 01:44:07 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline mystery-ak

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #96 on: August 29, 2021, 01:27:23 pm »
Stay safe Briefers..please check in when you can...
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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #97 on: August 29, 2021, 02:09:26 pm »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #98 on: August 29, 2021, 02:27:53 pm »
Quote from: mystery-ak on August 29, 2021, 02:09:26 pm

https://twitter.com/MikeFirstAlert/status/1431975363618512896

 **nononono* **nononono* **nononono*

Radars are showing frequent lightning strikes within the eyewall, which is is often indicative of a storm getting stronger.   Cat 5, and >156 mph?  Not out of the question.

If there are folks on Grand Isle, they are facing 15 foot storm surge.  Very very sad.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2021, 02:29:13 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline catfish1957

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Re: Hurricane Ida Advisory Discussions, and Updates
« Reply #99 on: August 29, 2021, 02:48:45 pm »
Landfall looks to be about an hour or so away.  Based on radar imagery, looks like Terribonne Parish between Morgan City and Houma.  IF the path holds true, the most direct town in path appears to be this one.  Dulac, Louisana, with a most recent population of 2,458

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dulac,_Louisiana

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