Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement:
Developments in Global Oil Consumption
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/special/supplements/2021/2021_sp_01.pdfJanuary 2021
1. Introduction
Responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused global demand for petroleum
products to fall significantly in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the
world consumed 92.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2020, a decline
of 9.0 million b/d (9%) from 2019. The large drop marks the first annual decline in global oil
consumption since the recession of 2008–09, and it ends a period of relatively stable growth. In the
decade preceding 2020, oil consumption rose at an average annual rate of 1.5 million b/d. The largest
annual increase in oil consumption during that period was 2.9 million b/d in 2010 (as the global
economy recovered from recession) and the smallest annual growth was 0.7 million b/d in 2011.
Although data on final 2020 oil consumption for much of the world are still preliminary, and might not
be confirmed for several years, EIA’s initial estimates show that the decline in global oil consumption
was the largest since 1980, which is the first year in EIA’s records. These estimates also show that
consumption in the second quarter was the lowest average level since second-quarter 2006. Global oil
consumption has risen since the second quarter of 2020, but it remains lower than pre-pandemic levels
because economic activity around the world remains subdued and many people continue to work and
attend school from home. Although EIA expects global oil consumption to continue its recovery in 2021
and 2022, the trajectory of that recovery is highly uncertain. This report discusses developments in
global oil consumption during the past year, methods for estimating and forecasting global oil
consumption, and EIA’s expectations for oil consumption in 2021–22.....