EIA estimates that global petroleum liquids consumption dropped 9% in 2020

[thackney]

EIA estimates that global petroleum liquids consumption dropped 9% in 2020
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46596
JANUARY 29, 2021



Responses to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused global demand for petroleum products to fall significantly in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the world consumed 92.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2020, a 9% decline from the previous year and the largest decline in EIA’s series that dates back to 1980. A supplement to EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) describes developments in global oil consumption during 2020, methods for estimating and forecasting global oil consumption, and expectations for oil consumption in 2021 and 2022.

In its short-term outlook, EIA forecasts changes in U.S. petroleum consumption in response to variables including economic growth, employment growth, vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and oil prices. For the rest of the world, EIA uses a combination of available real-time data and models based on the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and oil consumption. Because of the unique effects of the pandemic in 2020, EIA relied on a wider set of other indicators to assess non-U.S. energy demand, including third-party indexes that tracked mobility, flights, and government stay-at-home orders and their stringency across countries.

A previous Today in Energy article described how EIA uses data series from our Weekly Petroleum Status Report and our Petroleum Supply Monthly (with a two-month lag in the data) to inform short-term forecasts of U.S. petroleum markets. The United States is the world’s largest consumer of petroleum liquids, accounting for 20% of the global total in 2019.

Other countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) provide monthly consumption data after a two- to three-month lag. Collectively, the 37 OECD member countries consumed 47% of global petroleum liquids in 2019.

Data from non-OECD countries can vary from a two- to three-month lag (in the case of Brazil and India, for example) to a year or more. For this reason, EIA will have near-final data on about half of world oil consumption for 2020 by the first quarter of 2021, with values from the United States, OECD countries, and some non-OECD countries. EIA will add finalized data to its published estimates as information becomes available throughout 2021 and 2022.

The effects of the pandemic continue to present challenges in forecasting global petroleum liquids consumption. More context on these uncertainties is available in the STEO supplement Developments in Global Oil Consumption.

[thackney]

Short-Term Energy Outlook Supplement:
Developments in Global Oil Consumption
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/special/supplements/2021/2021_sp_01.pdf
January 2021

1. Introduction

Responses to the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused global demand for petroleum
products to fall significantly in 2020. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that the
world consumed 92.2 million barrels per day (b/d) of petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2020, a decline
of 9.0 million b/d (9%) from 2019. The large drop marks the first annual decline in global oil
consumption since the recession of 2008–09, and it ends a period of relatively stable growth. In the
decade preceding 2020, oil consumption rose at an average annual rate of 1.5 million b/d. The largest
annual increase in oil consumption during that period was 2.9 million b/d in 2010 (as the global
economy recovered from recession) and the smallest annual growth was 0.7 million b/d in 2011.

Although data on final 2020 oil consumption for much of the world are still preliminary, and might not
be confirmed for several years, EIA’s initial estimates show that the decline in global oil consumption
was the largest since 1980, which is the first year in EIA’s records. These estimates also show that
consumption in the second quarter was the lowest average level since second-quarter 2006. Global oil
consumption has risen since the second quarter of 2020, but it remains lower than pre-pandemic levels
because economic activity around the world remains subdued and many people continue to work and
attend school from home. Although EIA expects global oil consumption to continue its recovery in 2021
and 2022, the trajectory of that recovery is highly uncertain. This report discusses developments in
global oil consumption during the past year, methods for estimating and forecasting global oil
consumption, and EIA’s expectations for oil consumption in 2021–22.....

[thackney]

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/global_oil.php

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Am afraid the enviro wackos will use this reduction in petroleum usage to declare we need to shrink further the number of people in the world with abortion, disease or otherwise because "it is good for the earth and the climate"

[Fishrrman]

Demand may be down, but it looks like crude oil prices jumped up $3.00 overnight...

[Smokin Joe]

Am afraid the enviro wackos will use this reduction in petroleum usage to declare we need to shrink further the number of people in the world with abortion, disease or otherwise because "it is good for the earth and the climate"

They can start by not exhaling CO2.

[Smokin Joe]

Demand may be down, but it looks like crude oil prices jumped up $3.00 overnight...

Without sufficient drilling to replace depletion, we will be back to 1978/2015 again in no time.

[thackney]

Demand may be down, but it looks like crude oil prices jumped up $3.00 overnight...

Production dropped as well.  Demand has recovered more than production.  There is still a bit of "excess" stocks in storage but that is coming down.

The jump was likely more do to Biden executive actions and how that is effecting the futures market.