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Online Elderberry

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Live Thread: Hurricane Laura updates
« on: August 20, 2020, 01:48:33 pm »
The Big Wobble by Gary Walton 8/20/2020

Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the next two reserved names in Atlantic hurricane season 2020 are queuing up in the Atlantic: Hurricane Genevieve is aiming at Mexico and extratropical Storm Ellen batters the UK and Ireland

Hurricane Genevieve, as seen by NOAA’s GOES-East satellite on August 18, 2020, first appeared as Tropical Depression Twelve-E in the Pacific Ocean on Sunday, transitioning into a hurricane by the end of Monday. As of Wednesday morning, the hurricane was just off the coast of Baja California and had a maximum sustained wind speed of 115 miles per hour, making it a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly developed Tropical Depression Thirteen, located about 1000 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Tropical storms are possible across the Leeward Island by Friday.

1. A tropical wave and accompanying broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea, (Red X). This system is gradually becoming better organized, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple of days when the system reaches the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This system is moving westward, and interests in Honduras and the Yucatan Peninsula should closely monitor its progress. Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America and southeastern Mexico late this week and this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 per cent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 per cent.

According to Severe Weather Europe, it looks like tropical Atlantic is taking a higher gear this week. An impressive train of tropical waves is seen from western Africa westwards towards the Caribbean. Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the next two reserved names in Atlantic hurricane season 2020 – are likely to form in the coming days. Train of tropical waves All three waves are expected to track west-northwest into western tropical Atlantic, the Caribbean, and potentially towards the Gulf of Mexico, the Bahamas, and possibly the United States next week. The highest concern is the Invest #98L which is forecast to potentially track towards Florida and Bahamas.

More: http://www.thebigwobble.org/2020/08/tropical-atlantic-moves-into-high-gear.html

« Last Edit: August 25, 2020, 04:11:56 pm by mystery-ak »
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Offline goatprairie

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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the nex
« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2020, 02:41:15 pm »

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?


Are these the tropical storms they're warning about?
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the nex
« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2020, 09:31:22 pm »
We now have TD's 13 & 14, and the NHC is almost certain these will end up being Laura and Marco.  The system that reaches 39 mph sustained winds first will be the the "L" Storm, then the other.  Both could impact somewhere along the entire U.S. Gulf Coast, and at least the Atlantic Florida Coast.  Both are just a notch below T. S. strength @ 35mph.

T. D. 13 looks to be about 600 miles west of Puerto Rico, moving west.  Forecast models  are pretty tight bringing the storm @ T.S. Strength north of the big Caribbean Islands, going through southern Bahamas, reaching minimal hurricane strength near the tip of FL.  Once it gets in the gulf, the models diverge a little, and an expected trough is expected to bring the storm anywhere between Pensacola. to hugging the west coast of FL.  Again, this is waaaaaaaay off, so things could be much different later as far as forecasting.  Case in point, based on the official NHC track, the storm @180 hours looks to be theatening the NOLA to Pensacola area as a Cat 1.

T.D. 14 looks to be about a 100 miles west of the Hondura - Nicargua border, moving west.  In about 24 hours the NHC expects this thing to take a hard right, and the models spread this thing all over the place.  The same system that brought us the early season cold front in Texas is expected to be the trough to draw the think first WNW, then NW then NNW.  To give you an idea of how crazy the models are handling this storm, it has it aiming from anywhere from Palacios, Texas to Mobile, AL.  According to the NHC, the forcast does not have the worst of the wind for the U.S.  Instead it is expected on the Yucatan Penn, with almost hurricane force winds, and any U.S,. landfall 55 mph winds.  More good news, is if you look at the water radar loops the entire western gulf (post frontal) is awash with dry air.  That should help with keeping it deveoping, if the dry air column stays at or near in place.

And again....  as a disclaimer......   These are all forecasts, and it will very very likely be different once the storms progress.  But in any case, I suggest preparation as we normally do for these storms.




 
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 09:37:57 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2020, 09:50:16 pm »
Topics Merged.
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2020, 02:10:31 pm »
Friday Morning update.....

T.D. 13- About a 100 miles east of the Leeward Islands.  Forecasted to become a T.S tomorrow.  Not too much shift in path.  Storm as projected, skims or skirts north of the large Caribeean islands.  passing near Key West Monday afternoon.  Storm then is projected to reach minimal Hurricane Strength near or up to a few hundred miles SW of Tampa, but with storm with a continued progression NW, then NNW.  Actual path bullseye is on Pensacola, but Cone of Uncertainity is relatively wide from Morgan City, La, to about Palm Beach, FL, on the ATL side.

Storm as of the last few hours has encountered some pretty strong ESE to WNW sheer, (at least that appearance on radar).  In fact, in the last hour, and convection has reduced a tad, and the shape of the storm is more elongaged..  Plus I am having trouble finding a COC in the radar loop. I wouldn't be absolutley shocked if NHC downgrades to Tropical Wave on their 10 am advisory

T.D. 14- At the moment hugging the coast of Honduras, and in fact good bit of the convection of 14 is on land.  Still, easy to spot the COC on radar.  Storm is expected to make a pretty abrupt NW, then NNW turn shortly based on a deep trough located at Yucatan Penn, to the west coast of FL.  The storm is expected to reach hurricane strength as it approaches the Yucatan Penn (Sunday Morning), lose it over land, re-emerge over the gulf (Sunday Afternoon), and slowly build back to minimal hurricane force in the gulf by Monday.  At this exact moment the bullseye is on High Island, with the cone of uncertainty covering from about Palacios, Texas to Morgan City, La.  Now my $.02, and maybe false hope.  Two things against, and two things for....    First things that may prevent strengthening...   (1) Trough that I mentioned earlier, may have significant shear effects near and after the Yucatan passing  (2) Huge tongue of dry air infiltration in the western Gulf may hinder development  Now the two the may cause it be worse.  (1) The Gulf is bathwater hot right now.  More than enough fuel to feed a big Cane.  (2) Once this storm gets pass the trough, and somehow avoids a potential N or NNE turn, Sheer will be a minimum. 
And one last point to bring up on T.D 14, trending...   Last night's track had landfall at Galveston Bay, this morning at High Island.  The very most recent model runs available (TVC's), have it further trending toward the east.  Really anxious for the HWRF to run, to see if this is a continued trend.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 02:18:42 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2020, 02:16:02 pm »
Here we go again...
We are already having the discussions at work, of what to do, etc.........
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2020, 02:30:20 pm »
Quote from: GrouchoTex on August 21, 2020, 02:16:02 pm
Here we go again...
We are already having the discussions at work, of what to do, etc.........

Breaking update:  TD 13 becomes T.S.

9:05 AM AST Fri Aug 21
Location: 17.0°N 59.8°W
Moving: W at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

Suprised me, because it didn't seem that robust on radar. Can't argue with the HH's in the air though. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2020, 03:24:42 pm »
Brief 10:00 am update.

As mentioned earlier TD13 has been upgraded to T.S Laura. Path and cone shifted slightly westward.  With path toward Mobile, AL, and cone covering Morgan City, La.  to Miami.  Minimal or no apparent change in strength with this advisory

TD14 is still TD14, and track has also shifted slightly back west towards Galveston.  Slight downgrade on landfalling strength too.  Now not forcecasted to hit the U.S as a hurricane.  Cone now is from Corpus Christi to Morgan City.

Which brings me to an interesting trivial tid bit.  Believe it or not, extra inch of coastal real estate from Corpus Christi, TX to Homestead, FL is in the NHC  cone of uncertainty. (minus FL Big Bend) Never seen that much area covered before.



« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 03:26:09 pm by catfish1957 »
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Offline ironhorsedriver

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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2020, 05:26:21 pm »
Just curious, is it possible for the two systems to merge?
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2020, 05:30:57 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 21, 2020, 03:24:42 pm
TD14 is still TD14, and track has also shifted slightly back west towards Galveston.  Slight downgrade on landfalling strength too.  Now not forcecasted to hit the U.S as a hurricane.  Cone now is from Corpus Christi to Morgan City.

TD14 does not look good for my platform.
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2020, 05:37:04 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 21, 2020, 03:24:42 pm
Brief 10:00 am update.

As mentioned earlier TD13 has been upgraded to T.S Laura. Path and cone shifted slightly westward.  With path toward Mobile, AL, and cone covering Morgan City, La.  to Miami.  Minimal or no apparent change in strength with this advisory

TD14 is still TD14, and track has also shifted slightly back west towards Galveston.  Slight downgrade on landfalling strength too.  Now not forcecasted to hit the U.S as a hurricane.  Cone now is from Corpus Christi to Morgan City.

Which brings me to an interesting trivial tid bit.  Believe it or not, extra inch of coastal real estate from Corpus Christi, TX to Homestead, FL is in the NHC  cone of uncertainty. (minus FL Big Bend) Never seen that much area covered before.

??? We are getting reports here in SWFL that it will not affect us, though we are slightly in the cone. But looking at NOAA it shows us definitely being impacted by a tropical storm.  It's a littler early though and any shift of course could have a different significant impact.  Let's hope that there's enough dry air to further tear this thing apart.  It also looks like it may hit land first before hitting the warmer gulf waters.  One to watch.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 05:40:31 pm by libertybele »
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2020, 05:42:57 pm »
Ok, who ordered the BOGO hurricanes for next week?
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Offline GrouchoTex

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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2020, 06:00:39 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on August 21, 2020, 05:42:57 pm
Ok, who ordered the BOGO hurricanes for next week?

Ha Ha!
 :cool:
Looks like we both get one this time @Wingnut!
One headed for L.A. and one headed for TX, close to me SW of Houston.

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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2020, 06:02:35 pm »
Quote from: GrouchoTex on August 21, 2020, 06:00:39 pm
Ha Ha!
 :cool:
Looks like we both get one this time @Wingnut!
One headed for L.A. and one headed for TX, close to me SW of Houston.


LOL  Yup! :beer:
Looks like a low Cat Cane so far.  Maybe it will churn up the gulf and cool the water down. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2020, 06:07:30 pm »
Keep coming to Texas baby.....we need the rain!
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2020, 06:20:36 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on August 21, 2020, 06:02:35 pm

LOL  Yup! :beer:
Looks like a low Cat Cane so far.  Maybe it will churn up the gulf and cool the water down.

Can we also request a cleansing of COVID? 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2020, 06:24:35 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on August 21, 2020, 06:20:36 pm
Can we also request a cleansing of COVID?

Probably not.  However we have a pool in our hood on how many deaths will be classified as COVID related! 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2020, 06:32:00 pm »
Quote from: Wingnut on August 21, 2020, 06:24:35 pm
Probably not.  However we have a pool in our hood on how many deaths will be classified as COVID related!

But of course ... never let a dire situation go to waste!
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2020, 08:19:27 pm »
Quick update before the 5 pm EDT NHC advisory.....

TD14 is looking extremely ragged, and I am really having problems finding a COC.  Seems most of the convection has sheered off NE ward toward Cuba.

Laura?  Latest model runs tell me that we will see a strong westward shift in the offical NHC track.  Likely, in La.  Latest radar loops still show a strong circulation, but it has broken off into three large thunderstom complexes, all 3 just east and north east of the Windward Islands.  It might just be a diurnal cycle.  We'll see.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 08:21:22 pm by catfish1957 »
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2020, 09:37:33 pm »
5pm EDT NHC advisory has been posted.

Laura has increased to 45 MPH, and is over the most NE Windward Island, near Barbados, moving westward at a good clip.  Really no change wind strength profile, Forecasted to be T.S, skirting the big islands, or just north of, then becoming a Cat 1 Hurricane in the Gulf.  As I mentioned earlier and expected....   Forecasted track has shifted west, with bullseye on the mouth of the Mississippi and Cone covering an area from (Key West singularly), and from White Lake, Louisiana to Near Panama City, FL.

TD14 looks ragged, but NHC still projects 14 to still strenghten and reach T.S status tonight. If it does, it will be Marco.  Center has been relocated more north during the north due to disorganization, and bouncing around of the convection/COC. The center, if you call it one is about a 100 east of the Belize/Mexico border.  The storm is now forecasted to move NW toward the NE tip of the Yucatan Penn, After a very brief brush with Yucatan, the track has it going NW, briefly becoming a Category 1 storm.  Official track and intensity the has it bending it slightly more westward and decreasing to a T.S.  (Afternoon Tuesday at Landfall).  NHC has also shifted (future Marco?) the track westward, with aim now at Freeport with Cone reaching from South Padre Island to Grand Lake, LA. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2020, 09:49:47 pm »
I'll bet these two systems collide, and then collapse.  This is borne of no special knowledge other than a working understanding of physics. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2020, 09:55:24 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on August 21, 2020, 09:49:47 pm
I'll bet these two systems collide, and then collapse.  This is borne of no special knowledge other than a working understanding of physics.

It is impossible for tropical storms with circulations to merge.  More often than not, when they start getting close, one draws the atmospheric energy from the other, often dissipating the other.  What is extemely odd is two to get in the gulf at the same time.  I think I read somewhere that has not been seen in decades. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2020, 09:57:52 pm »
Quote from: Cyber Liberty on August 21, 2020, 09:49:47 pm
I'll bet these two systems collide, and then collapse.  This is borne of no special knowledge other than a working understanding of physics.

Like matter and antimatter.    The two 'canes are like the streams of matter (deuterium gas) and antimatter (anti-deuterium) directed into crystallized dilithium are unbalanced: there is usually much more matter in the stream than antimatter. Hence one will destry the other or both.
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2020, 10:03:17 pm »
Quote from: catfish1957 on August 21, 2020, 09:55:24 pm
It is impossible for tropical storms with circulations to merge.  More often than not, when they start getting close, one draws the atmospheric energy from the other, often dissipating the other.  What is extemely odd is two to get in the gulf at the same time.  I think I read somewhere that has not been seen in decades.

I believe it was back in 1933.

We are entering the peak of hurricane season and I think we're going to go through the alphabet this year and well into November. 
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Re: Tropical Atlantic moves into high gear and looking ominous: Tropical Storm Laura and Marco – the
« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2020, 10:05:19 pm »
Quote from: libertybele on August 21, 2020, 10:03:17 pm
I believe it was back in 1933.

We are entering the peak of hurricane season and I think we're going to go through the alphabet this year and well into November.

This season unfortunately has a 2005 feel to it.  And we all know how that one went.
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