Live Thread: Hurricane Laura updates

[mystery-ak]

U.S. Could Witness Rare ‘Fujiwhara Effect’ as Two Storm Systems Target Gulf



The United States could witness a rare “Fujiwhara effect” as two storm systems are expected to come in close proximity in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

All eyes are on the gulf coast as the 2020 hurricane season nears its most active month. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking two storm systems. Tropical Depression Fourteen is moving northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to develop into a named storm and reach hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Laura is moving toward the U.S. from the Atlantic, prompting warnings for the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico Friday morning.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/21/u-s-could-witness-rare-fujiwhara-effect-as-two-storm-systems-target-gulf/

[libertybele]

It is quite ominous --  ...... But often, the effect is additive when hurricanes come together — we usually end up with one massive storm instead of two smaller ones.

Let's hope that one of these fizzles out so that they don't become one.  Hurricanes on the Gulf side seem to be more unpredictable...not looking good here right now.

[Hoodat]

U.S. Could Witness Rare ‘Fujiwhara Effect’ as Two Storm Systems Target Gulf

[libertybele]

Latest advisory we're hearing here in SWFL is that FL will likely not be affected. Not looking too good for LA and TX -  Laura is heading towards LA and #14 is heading towards TX.  Cat 1 is still a possibility, but not likely at this point.

The forecasts that we are getting here don't mention anything about the possibility of the two storms merging.

[Elderberry]

U.S. Could Witness Rare ‘Fujiwhara Effect’ as Two Storm Systems Target Gulf



The United States could witness a rare “Fujiwhara effect” as two storm systems are expected to come in close proximity in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

All eyes are on the gulf coast as the 2020 hurricane season nears its most active month. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking two storm systems. Tropical Depression Fourteen is moving northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and is expected to develop into a named storm and reach hurricane strength. Tropical Storm Laura is moving toward the U.S. from the Atlantic, prompting warnings for the Northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico Friday morning.

more
https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2020/08/21/u-s-could-witness-rare-fujiwhara-effect-as-two-storm-systems-target-gulf/

I just hope that if they merge they don't fill up the Whole Gulf of Mexico like hurricane Allen did.

[catfish1957]

Night Owl update before 5 am NHC Advisory.

Laura- Now approaching Puerto Rico, and convection is looking much more robust in the satellite loop the past few hours.  11 PM advisory again had offical NHC Track further west, due south of NOLA. 8 of the 11 long range models are now west of that.  So I am guessing shortly the new track will reflect that.  The spread on the models has also widened too.  Which reduced the confidence of the forecasted track.  The 11 now range from Galveston Bay to Ft. Walton Beach.

TD 13 is now Marco.  Counter to the NHC track which has the storm moving NW, the satelitte loops definitely show a northward movement the past few hours toward the western tip of Cuba  Will be interesting to see if this is a shift in storm dynamics, or just a wobble in center.  I did notice that I am seeing some banding last few minutes loop around the storm, whicn might indicated some better organization or strenghtening.  Models don't look too much different than last night, except for more spread. These two are making it difficult on the NHC forecasters that is for sure.

I'll be back in 10 or 20, with details of the 5 am EDT update.

[catfish1957]

I just hope that if they merge they don't fill up the Whole Gulf of Mexico like hurricane Allen did.

Being a lifelong Gulf Coast resident, Camille, Allen and Gilbert are the ones that really scared me.  I can remember the TV being prempted in 1969 for cane coverage.  Can still remember the crude graphics and weathermen feeling helpless, not really knowing where Camille was going.  Even 3 days out they had no idea whether this thing was going to hit from anywhere from Bay City, TX. to Talahassee.  As a 12 year old, that was scary as hell.  And back then, there really wasn't any such thing as mass evacuations.

Gilbert was also a historical monster.  It was so strong, so organized, so peripherially perfect, it almost went in an exact straight line it's etiire track over water.  Defying, like almost laughing at any atmospheric influences that would alter its track.  I can still remember the Weather Channel pundits that kept thinking that a strong Sept. front / trough was going to draw the storm up to Texas.  Nope, Gilbert had ideas of his own.

[catfish1957]

Saturday 5am EDT NHC Advisory synopsis....

Laura-Now a minimal T.S. sitting off the SE Coast of Puerto Rico. Offical track has storm tranversing the large islands, which might help hinder development.  By Monday after it shows the storm exiting Cuba.  For the next 24 hours whie moving NW in the north central Gulf, they expect it to reach Cat. 1 strength, making potential landfall Wednesday afternoon.  Now in the bullseye, Morgan City, with cone of uncertainty now stretching from Galveston to Mobile.  One thing is for sure, apparently they sure expect the  surface high are building early next week, becasue it seems the tracks and models are on the westward trend for both storms.  Landfalls are expected about a day apart, and both most likely in LA, or TX, or both.

Marco- As I reported a few minutes ago, the storm has decided to take a more northly turn of late, and that reflects in the NHC track.  In fact, it looks like the COC might evern miss the Yucatan Penn all together.  Offical track has this storm on a continued NNW / NW track until Monday.  Then they expect a WNW shift.  The cone of influence of this one is signifcant.  Even SE Lousiana is in the cone of grazing before the westward turn.  Reflecting the boogering up of the models, landfall cone is now (ack) from Pecan Island, La to near Brownsville.  Good news is that this one is (at least now) not expected to reach hurricane status.  The bad news is all its forward movement during its entire track seems to be slower.  Present so called bullseye is at about Bay City, Texas.  But that prediction is about as likely as a coherent Biden statement.   This slowing trend also has me worried that if it continues, it may be a flooding concern for the folks living along the NW and western gulf.

[catfish1957]

Pre-Advisory update.

Laura- Jecklyll / Hyde on direction on modeling runs right now.  3 have storm heading to Bay City Texas, 3 towards the FL/AL border, and 5 clustered toward the SE Louisana coast. Take your pick.  Precipitation shield has doubled in area in the past 2 hours.  Which could either be strenthening, or diffusive sheer.  We'll find out in a couple of hours. Storm as advertising is clipping along at 20+ mph true west at the PR coast.  Storms going that fast is generally a good thing, as it keeps them strengthening.  Also another good thing, is if Laura goes straight through Hispaniola and Cuba.  Mountainous terrain is not good for the storm. 

Marco-  NHC says this thing is heading NNW.  I just don't see it.  Seems to me it has been moving North for at least 8-10 hours.    Last few hours of Laura have been impressive.  Seeing a tightening of the COC, in what looks like a 25 mile diameter center.  Precipiation is also building and fully encircling the storm on recent loops.  I expect this storm to be quite a big stronger come 11 am advisory.  Good news?  There is a very strong line of demarcation of dry dry air in almost a straight line west of  Mobile AL, running SSW towards the Bay of Compeche. If storm encounters that dry air, that wii help suppress.

[Hoodat]

Gilbert was also a historical monster.  It was so strong, so organized, so peripherially perfect, it almost went in an exact straight line it's etiire track over water.  Defying, like almost laughing at any atmospheric influences that would alter its track.  I can still remember the Weather Channel pundits that kept thinking that a strong Sept. front / trough was going to draw the storm up to Texas.  Nope, Gilbert had ideas of his own.

You got that right.  Gilbert was one bad mofo.

[Wingnut]

You got that right.  Gilbert was one bad mofo.

It was the "Shaft" of hurricanes.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Just curious, is it possible for the two systems to merge?

Am just the son of a meteorologist, but believe it more likely they repel each other as systems move toward lower pressures rather than toward higher pressures.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Keep coming to Texas baby.....we need the rain!

My hay meadow could use 6 inches or so.  And don't read anything into it either.

[Idiot]

My hay meadow could use 6 inches or so.  And don't read anything into it either.

Not I....but of course @Wingnut might have a comment.   

[IsailedawayfromFR]

I just hope that if they merge they don't fill up the Whole Gulf of Mexico like hurricane Allen did.

I lived in Corpus Christi when it was the bullseye for Allen.  It had the second lowest barometric pressure ever recorded when it entered the Gulf.  As I had a wife 8 1/2 months pregnant, was worried about delivering a baby myself.

Even though it missed CC, was very worried about that one.

And time to reflect on things.

That one came in September, and was the first named storm of the year.

Here we are in August and already halfway through the alphabet.

Are there actually more storms or are we just paying attention to them more and naming anything that spins into a threat?

[Wingnut]

Not I....but of course @Wingnut might have a comment.   

Nope.  I'm not going to make hay with his comment. 

[catfish1957]

10 am NHC advisory update

Laura-  Has slowed down to 17 mph, though still looking like it is going to slush through the big islands.  Still a minimal T.S.  Overall track has shifted at tad west (day 4 & 5), with the so called bulls-eye now on Pecan Island, La. And our cone now covering from Freeport, TX to MS/AL border/.  Still according to NHC a T.S . NHC has this thing right now at U.S. Landfall as a Cat 1, at about 80 mph.

Marco-  As I suggested, still really making a more northward movement than westward.  Overall the NHC doesn't think it will overall impact the track too much I guess.  And also as I mentioned in my last post, this thing is now strengthening pretty rapidly, as this advisory has it pegged at 65 mph sustained winds.  NHC forcecast Marco to reach hurricane force later today.  Staying mostly on a NNW track to until about the 90th parallel.  There they think it will weaken to sub hurricane status, and then forecast this thing to then take a westward turn pretty much paralleling the LA/TX coast 50 miles or so.  Landfall is forcast to be near Galveston, with overall cone covering South of NOLA, to Corpus Christi.  Needless to say this particular track might have significant flooding potential for the entire western U.S. Gulf Coast areas and just inland. 

Though pretty unlikely, it is not out of the realm that the some location could be visited by two different tropical systems in a 48 hour period.

[Elderberry]

I lived in Corpus Christi when it was the bullseye for Allen.  It had the second lowest barometric pressure ever recorded when it entered the Gulf.  As I had a wife 8 1/2 months pregnant, was worried about delivering a baby myself.

Even though it missed CC, was very worried about that one.

And time to reflect on things.

That one came in September, and was the first named storm of the year.

Here we are in August and already halfway through the alphabet.

Are there actually more storms or are we just paying attention to them more and naming anything that spins into a threat?

Allen was my first after getting home from the Navy. One of my sisters went north and after 8 hrs of gridlock on the freeway pulled over and found a room in Centerville.  My other sister went to Austin and there were several spin-off tornadoes causing damage in that area. I rode it out in my trailer on Telephone Rd. I drove the 610 loop watching the bands crossing above. Hardly any rain or wind though. And I think my car was the only one on 610.

The only time I ever evacuated for a storm was Hurricane Edith in 1971. I was staying with my sister in her trailer in Sulfur La. The wind had picked up when she got a call from a friend that convinced her to ride it out with them in their brick home. We pulled out in my Gremlin  as the wind slapped the power lines together causing quite a fieworks explosion and all the power went out in the area. I made it to I-10 and was crawling about 10 mph thru all the wind and sheets of horizontal rain with flying debris. By the time I got to the exit in Lake Charles and was looking for her house, the wind had died down and it was hardly raining. Edith has mercy on us and took a hard right.

One hurricane, the news reporters kept saying it was headed right for us. I kept looking at the reports on-line and could see a gradual arc to the east. My wife and daughter were hounding me for us to leave. I would show them the freeway grid-locks via the TXDOT cameras and I told them I will Not leave a shelter unless I am certain that I know we will get to better shelter. I finally told them that if we leave we will go Southwest to Corpus.( That's what one of my co-workers did, I found out later). We didn't leave.

[Wingnut]

This was rather humorous about hurricane's!

https://www.facebook.com/ghofvh/videos/1631593483520436/

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Allen was my first after getting home from the Navy. One of my sisters went north and after 8 hrs of gridlock on the freeway pulled over and found a room in Centerville.  My other sister went to Austin and there were several spin-off tornadoes causing damage in that area. I rode it out in my trailer on Telephone Rd. I drove the 610 loop watching the bands crossing above. Hardly any rain or wind though. And I think my car was the only one on 610.

The only time I ever evacuated for a storm was Hurricane Edith in 1971. I was staying with my sister in her trailer in Sulfur La. The wind had picked up when she got a call from a friend that convinced her to ride it out with them in their brick home. We pulled out in my Gremlin  as the wind slapped the power lines together causing quite a fieworks explosion and all the power went out in the area. I made it to I-10 and was crawling about 10 mph thru all the wind and sheets of horizontal rain with flying debris. By the time I got to the exit in Lake Charles and was looking for her house, the wind had died down and it was hardly raining. Edith has mercy on us and took a hard right.

One hurricane, the news reporters kept saying it was headed right for us. I kept looking at the reports on-line and could see a gradual arc to the east. My wife and daughter were hounding me for us to leave. I would show them the freeway grid-locks via the TXDOT cameras and I told them I will Not leave a shelter unless I am certain that I know we will get to better shelter. I finally told them that if we leave we will go Southwest to Corpus.( That's what one of my co-workers did, I found out later). We didn't leave.

I was going to remain where we were in CC and even thought about checking my wife into the hospital for riding out the hurricane.

When I checked with my next door neighbor who happened to be local head of the Red Cross on what to do, he told me he could not leave, but he was sending his wife and kids out of town.

That was good enough for me, so I put the plyboards up on all the windows and we drove to San Marcos to stay.  One of the hotels in SM had its roof torn off from one of those spin-off tornadoes.

So much for driving 3 1/2 hours to escape a hurricane as we were still in its effect.

Oh, and in case I missed it on earlier posts, thanks for your service. @Elderberry

[libertybele]

I was going to remain where we were in CC and even thought about checking my wife into the hospital for riding out the hurricane.

When I checked with my next door neighbor who happened to be local head of the Red Cross on what to do, he told me he could not leave, but he was sending his wife and kids out of town.

That was good enough for me, so I put the plyboards up on all the windows and we drove to San Marcos to stay.  One of the hotels in SM had its roof torn off from one of those spin-off tornadoes.

So much for driving 3 1/2 hours to escape a hurricane as we were still in its effect.

Oh, and in case I missed it on earlier posts, thanks for your service. @Elderberry

Hurricanes are tricky to dodge.  Unless you can make it safely out of the state soon enough to not be impacted in your travels, sometimes it is best just to stay, put your shutters up and bunker in.  We've been through several hurricanes and have been very very fortunate that we have been minimally impacted. 

The hurricane building codes have become much more strict as well which helps; the latest codes were set in 2017 and a revision is due out this year.

[catfish1957]

Update before the 4pm NHC Advisory.  This crazy weekend in the tropics just got crazier...

Laura- Storm is looking better, and PR is obstructed in deep spinning mass of convection.  Expect an increase in wind speed at next advisory.  There is a still a 3 or 4 pronged split in the models that seems to have shifted where I think NHC will project the storm.  One thing, though the cone will be likely pretty huge.  The HWCN which has been one of my favorites for accuarcy has it @Brownsville.  While the CLP5, and the CEMN have it near or north of Tampa Bay.   Wow!!!!!  Still there is a big cluster of about 5 or 6 that have it aiming @NOLA, and that is where near I am guessing the NHC will spot the track.

Marco-  Now this is where it has really gotten crazy.  Remember that northward rather than westward movement I have been talking about?  Well the models now recognize it as a Long Term Trend.  On radar Marco looks like it might be a tad less organized than it was a few hours ago.  Seems it is now getting caught up in the trough, and sheering off a ton of convection toward Florida.  Here is the crazy new model run......    The entire 15 set run of models  has it fairly tightly clustered in an area from Pecan Island, La. to Penscaloa, FL.  The last NHC track had landfall at Bay City, TX well south of Galveston.  This time?  my bets are on an area from NOLA to Gulfport. That's probably close to 300 miles eastward.   Wow.

[catfish1957]

Want a little good news?  That absolutely monstrous cluster of storms coming off Africa that all the forecasters were worried about last week?  It has gone poof.!!!!

[libertybele]

Want a little good news?  That absolutely monstrous cluster of storms coming of Africa that all the forecasters were worried about last week?  It has gone poof.!!!!

 

[catfish1957]

4pm NHC advisory synopsis....

Laura- Winds now 50 mph, moving west at 18mph. Now on the west coast of PR heading for Hispanola (Haiti/Domican Republic).  Official track not that significantly different from previous advisories, or strength. Even tming is similar with strom maintaing TS level, before leaving the big Caribbean islands Monday afternoon.  NHC still has it forecasted to get stronger then in the  Central Gulf, making a northward turn after the 90th parallel. They still think that it will be about a 80 mph storm (Cat 1) reaching near Morgan City, LA Wednesday afternoon.  Cone?  Now Port Arthur TX to near Mobile, AL

Marco.-  As I reported last hour ...  An expected Huge Huge shift eastward on the track.  Marco is now up to 60 mph heading NNW at 13 mph.  As it heads northward, they believe it will be a 80 mph hurricane before landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi.  Maybe 50 miles east of Laura's projection Also as a 80 mph category 1 storm Monday afternoon.  Cone- Galveston to Gulfport.  And BTW Hurricane watches have now been posted from Intercoastal City, LA to the Alabama-Mississippi border

What is really concerning to me, is some of this setup may be leading to some historic flooding.  (1) Two Cat 1 landfalling canes within a 50-200 mile area?  (2) Notice Marco's track....   From Monday to Wednesday, it has only moved from landfall to Dallas.  That is a  slow storm. East TX, LA, MS, AL, and even FL panhandle is going see some serious rain next week.

But stay tuned, as drastic as this shift was....   It might not be the last