Okay, let's look at this
From the NY Post article:
https://nypost.com/2020/04/17/regular-exercise-can-help-protect-from-severe-coronavirus-complication/The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has estimated between 20 and 42 percent of all patients hospitalized with COVID-19 will develop ARDS.
Research predating the pandemic suggested that approximately 45 percent of patients who develop severe ARDS will die, according to a news release from the University of Virginia Health System.
Using real numbers from ND, of 439 cases, 47 were hospitalized (11%).
Using the high estimation of 42%, 4.5% of the original total will develop ARDS, 2% of the original number will die.
Using the low estimation of 20%, 2.1% of the original total will develop ARDS, or just under 1% of the original total will die.
Testing the model, without any consideration of other factors, that means that of the 439 cases in ND, at the high end 9 deaths would be expected, at the low end, 4 deaths. While cases remain unresolved, there have been 9 deaths in the State. Age group from 50 to 80+, skewed toward the higher ages, and all with "underlying medical conditions".
Those numbers work out, but that does not address specific cause/effect relationships, only statistics that might be the same for people who consume products containing water, without more specific information.
Getting back to the original "Underlying Medical Conditions" which were originally used to define increased risk,
Heart disease
Hypertension
Diabetes
COPD and other pulmonary issues
Cancer (likely due to immune compromise from chemo/radiation)
HIV/AIDS
While age and obesity have been brought up, repeatedly, the likelihood of the above conditions (except HIV/AIDS which is behaviourally controlled) generally increases with age and obesity, so if we look at why age and obesity are factors, we get back to those same underlying medical conditions. The only other factor might be that obesity increases the amount of inflammation present in the body, which may contribute to the overall potential for ARDS.
The other numbers ....Of 439 cases, and the 47 hospitalized, only 16 remained in hospital. Thirty one of those cases were resolved, and assuming the 9 folks who died were in hospital at the time, shows that 71% of those who went into the hospital and whose cases are resolved survived. Sixteen cases are pending, and those numbers could go either way, up or down.
Presently, of the 439 positive cases, 41% are resolved (181), 95% of those are recovered (172), and 59% are yet to be resolved.
There is no data on whether the Hydroxychloroquine/Z-pack/Zinc Sulfate regimen has been used, nor whether the treatments for HAPE (High Altitude Pulmonary Edema) have been used on critical patients exhibiting ARDS symptoms, so the efficacy of those courses of treatment cannnot be commented on in this context.
While 2% of those who tested positive in ND have died, and 59% of cases remain unresolved, the other number is this: 12,342 had been tested as of !!:00 CDT yesterday's report. Of those, 11903 tested negative. Only 3.6% tested positive, of those tested, of those tested, 0.07% have died of COVID-19.
Trends:It is too early to be breathing sighs of relief, here.
The number of active cases has been steadily increasing, leveling off every 4 days, after the 4 day interval peaks in new cases. The number of positive tests jumped by the greatest number of new cases just yesterday, by 46 new cases, though only 16 remain in hospital statewide. Overall, sharpest increases in new cases appear four days apart, and yesterday's reported peak was no exception (data up to April 16th).
While past performance is no indication of future returns, it is unlikely we have peaked here yet.
22 of 53 counties report no cases at all.
13 counties have only one, nine other counties from 2 to 5 cases.
Human factors: Spread, as noticed after the initial case, has been generally along the I-94 corridor and the US 2 corridor, east/west transportation links.
The four major north/south highways I-29 in the East (Fargo to Grand Forks and north) Hwy52/281 between Jamestown and Devil's Lake, Highway 83 (Bismarck/Mandan to Minot) and Highway 85 (North from the State line w/S. Dakota to Williston and north) transect other counties also with cases, the exceptions being Benson County south of Devil's Lake, and Trail and Pembina counties in the East side of the State, the former between Fargo and Grand Forks (where people would fuel up and drive through, as a rule) and Pembina County being next to the Canadian Border, and likely not getting much non-local traffic since the outbreak.
The highest numbers of cases are in counties with cities with larger populations in the State, Fargo, Bismarck/Mandan, Dickinson along the I-94 corridor, and Grand Forks and Minot, along the US 2 corridor.
Cass County, Where I-29 and I-94 cross at Fargo, has the highest number of confirmed cases, accounting for 42% of the cases in the State. Sixty nine percent are in counties along I-94.
There is no indication that there was spread associated with the first case known in the State, who was a rural resident in Ward county who self isolated and recovered at home.
Reopening the State for business: When it happens, will be data driven, and not on a set time frame, according to the announcements from the Governor and Dept of Health.
I'm fine with that over some arbitrary timeline, and would be okay with that on a county by county basis, even, with the caveat that some services may cause people to cross county lines and ultimately bring the infection to areas that currently do not have any cases at all.
