2018 Midterm: Polls, Voting Data & Stats, Maps, Debates, News

[Free Vulcan]

A good bet on their part.  Sinema has had an iron grip on her CD in the Phoenix area.  The "independent" redistricting board made it a safe Rat seat, diluting the conservative Southeast Valley with the Phoenix Central Corridor.

More good news out there, Ducey is starting to pull away in the Gov race. 13 pt. swing in just two weeks.

OH Predictive Insights   10/3 - 10/3   600 LV   4.0   54   37   Ducey +17
FOX News   9/29 - 10/2   716 LV   3.5   55   37   Ducey +18
Suffolk*   9/27 - 9/30   500 LV   4.4   50   38   Ducey +12
NBC News/Marist   9/16 - 9/20   564 LV   4.7   51   43   Ducey +8
Emerson*   9/19 - 9/21   650 RV   4.4   42   38   Ducey +4

And @Sanguine need to correct myself, that McSally/Sinema swing happened over a 2 week time period, not a month. That is big.

[Free Vulcan]

Wisconsin governor race. First poll showing Walker ahead. 8 point swing since late July. Recent poll is also a nice sized sample of Likely Voters.

Marquette*   10/3 - 10/7   799 LV   3.9   46   47   Walker +1
Suffolk   8/18 - 8/24   500 LV   4.4   46   44   Evers +2
PPP (D)   8/15 - 8/16   596 RV   4.0   49   44   Evers +5
Emerson   7/26 - 7/28   632 RV   4.2   48   41   Evers +7

[Cyber Liberty]

More good news out there, Ducey is starting to pull away in the Gov race. 13 pt. swing in just two weeks.

OH Predictive Insights   10/3 - 10/3   600 LV   4.0   54   37   Ducey +17
FOX News   9/29 - 10/2   716 LV   3.5   55   37   Ducey +18
Suffolk*   9/27 - 9/30   500 LV   4.4   50   38   Ducey +12
NBC News/Marist   9/16 - 9/20   564 LV   4.7   51   43   Ducey +8
Emerson*   9/19 - 9/21   650 RV   4.4   42   38   Ducey +4

And @Sanguine need to correct myself, that McSally/Sinema swing happened over a 2 week time period, not a month. That is big.

Ducey's in pretty good shape.  All he's had to do is stay reasonably conservative and not be shown to be a criminal and he's safe.  I'm hoping for a positive effect down-ballot.

[Free Vulcan]

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
11h11 hours ago

NEW POLLING: GEORGIA GOVERNOR RACE.  GOP KEMP 52%, ABRAMS 42%.  GOP opens up a 10 point lead.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1049968043101773824

[austingirl]

The Communist Party website is stating which races they are trying to influence.

https://www.cpusa.org/article/election-2018-a-guide-to-united-action/



Congress:

In the House Democrats need  to flip 24 Republican seats in addition to holding on to the 194 seats they have to be in the majority.  We are involved in 38 Republican seats that can be flipped: AZ, CA – 7, CO, FL-2, IL-2, IA-2, MI, MN-2, NJ-3, NY-3, OH-2, PA-5, TX-3, VA-4, WA-2, WI.

In the Senate 24 Democrats and 9 Republicans are up for re-election, a total of 35 seats.  Democrats need to win 28 of the 35 seats to gain a majority.

We are involved in two states where a Republican seat can be flipped:  AZ (Flake open), TX (Cruz), and five states where a Democratic seat needs protection against being lost: FL (Nelson), IN (Donnelly), MO (McCaskill), NJ (Menendez)

[Free Vulcan]

Fun factoid:

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
11h11 hours ago

BREAKING: An estimated 61% of Federal Democrat Candidates have Radical Islamic Group members working on these immediate staffs.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1049972664763392002

[Free Vulcan]

2 televised debates tonite:

CSPAN
Verified account @cspan
2m2 minutes ago



North Carolina 9th District Debate w/ @McCreadyForNC and @MarkHarrisNC9 – LIVE at 7pm ET on C-SPAN https://cs.pn/2C7BMyw  #NC09

New Jersey 11th District Debate w/ @mikiesherrill and @JayWebberNJ – LIVE at 8pm ET on C-SPAN https://cs.pn/2C84C1J  #NJ11

https://twitter.com/cspan/status/1050155011626475520

[Frank Cannon]

2 televised debates tonite:

I'll definitely keep those in mind if I have a bout of insomnia tonight.

[Free Vulcan]

Tighter Senate Race In West Virginia After Kavanaugh Vote

A poll taken immediately after the Senate voted to confirm Justice Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court indicates a more competitive election for West Virginia Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Manchin leads West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, a Republican, by one point in the state’s U.S. Senate election, according to a survey released Wednesday by Public Opinion Strategies. The GOP contender polled at 40 percent to Manchin’s 41 percent.

The numbers indicate a quickly tightening race in the West Virginia, where national Republicans believe the deep red state is a ripe pickup opportunity this November. President Donald Trump won West Virginia by an astounding 42-point margin in 2016, giving the GOP reason to feel bullish this midterm season.

https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/10/joe-manchin-patrick-morrisey-west-virginia-senate-race/

[Free Vulcan]

Shock poll - James within 9 points of Stabenow in Michigan Senate race.

This was a safe Dem seat. No more. Considering how far he was down, this is a huge move. Will have to see if it's an outlier.

Mitchell Research   9/30 - 10/7   654 LV   3.8   51   42   Stabenow +9
Detroit News/WDIV-TV   9/30 - 10/2   600 LV   4.0   53   35   Stabenow +18
EPIC-MRA   9/21 - 9/25   600 LV   4.0   56   33   Stabenow +23
Target-Insyght/MIRS   9/10 - 9/14   800 LV   3.0   55   40   Stabenow +15

[Free Vulcan]

Washington 8th - Dino Rossi has opened up a 10 point lead over Kim Schrier in a two week period. Another one to watch to see if it's an outlier.

Elway Poll   10/4 - 10/9   400 RV   5.0   49   39   Rossi +10
NY Times/Siena   9/24 - 9/26   505 LV   4.6   45   46   Schrier +1

[cato potatoe]

Cruz by 9, according to Quinnipiac.  2% undecided, and 97% of Cruz voters are sure they won't change their minds, unless they do.

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

[Free Vulcan]

Florida Guy  @floridaguy267
4h4 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  Pennsylvania Senate Race.  DEM Incumbent Casey 48%, GOP Challenger Barletta 46%.  This race is too close to call.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050334666547494912

Florida Guy  @floridaguy267
4h4 hours ago

NEW POLLING.   Michigan Senate Race.  DEMOCRAT Incumbent Stabenow 47%, GOP Challenger James 44%. This race is too close to call.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050334003574788101

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
4h4 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  NORTH DAKOTA SENATE RACE.  GOP Cramer 56%, DEM Heitkamp 40%.  GOP Opens up a 16 pt lead. MSM has dropped all coverage of this race.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050333638057963521

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
4h4 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  Missouri Senate Race.  GOP Hawley 52%, DEM McCaskill 41%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050332827848458245

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
4h4 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  TENNESSEE GOVERNOR RACE.  GOP Lee 56%, DEM Dean 35%.  GOP opens up 21pt lead.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050332144894169088

Florida Guy  @floridaguy267
12h12 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  WEST VIRGINIA SENATE RACE.  DEM Manchin 46%, GOP Morrissey 44%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050202900788641792

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
13h13 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  Massachusetts Senate Race.  DEM Warren 51%, GOP Deihl 42%

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050200645284827136

Florida Guy @floridaguy267
13h13 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  NEVADA GOVERNOR  GOP Laxalt 48%, DEM Sisolak 43%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050199187957211137

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
13h13 hours ago

NEW POLLING.   OHIO GOVERNOR RACE.   GOP Dewine 49%, DEM Cordray 49%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050197753735843840

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
13h13 hours ago

NEW POLLING.  WISCONSIN GOVERNOR RACE.  GOP Walker 50%, DEM Evers 46%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050195973442588673

[catfish1957]

Hawley up 11????

Wow things must have really gone south for McCaskill after her SCOTUS vote.   Every poll before had them almost dead even.

Otherwise, everything seems to be trending GOP nicely.

The Kavanaugh thing has blown back in the democratic party's face.

[cato potatoe]

Another poll (NY Times) reports Heller up by 2 in Nevada.  Republicans now support him 93-1. 

[Free Vulcan]

Hawley up 11????

Wow things must have really gone south for McCaskill after her SCOTUS vote.   Every poll before had them almost dead even.

Otherwise, everything seems to be trending GOP nicely.

The Kavanaugh thing has blown back in the democratic party's face.

I've also seen a Hawley +8 after months of near tie. I have little trust in single polls, but a big swings over many polls as we get closer to election day I take more seriously.

[Free Vulcan]

Florida Guy  @floridaguy267
1h1 hour ago

BREAKING WISCONSIN SENATE RACE. DEM Baldwin 46%, GOP Vukmir 45%.

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050530631824928768

Florida Guy  @floridaguy267
1h1 hour ago

BREAKING.  FLORIDA Absentee Ballots returned.   GOP 47.1% which was 38% in 2016, DEM 34.5% which was 40% in 2016.  GOP advantage 14.6% over 2016 turnout.
30 replies 171 retweets 270 likes

https://twitter.com/floridaguy267/status/1050529745669156865

[Right_in_Virginia]

New poll shows Democrat Shalala trailing GOP opponent in a district Trump lost badly
Miami Herald, Oct 11, 2018

WASHINGTON  — Donna Shalala may be in trouble.

Shalala, a Democrat running in a district that President Donald Trump lost by nearly 20 percentage points in 2016, is trailing Republican TV journalist Maria Elvira Salazar by 2 percentage points in a Mason Dixon-Telemundo 51 poll. The independent poll’s margin of error was 4 percentage points and included a pro-Trump non-party candidate who could siphon votes from Salazar.

Salazar’s unique background as a journalist in a party dominated by President Donald Trump and her appeal with older, Spanish-speaking voters has enabled the GOP to remain competitive. Shalala, one of the most experienced first-time congressional candidates, won a competitive Democratic primary by less than 5 percentage points and has faced criticism from liberal Democrats and Republicans alike for her tenure leading the University of Miami, when campus janitors went on a hunger strike over low wages and the school acquired Cedars Medical Center.

Read more here: https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article219862165.html#storylink=cpy

[Free Vulcan]

Looks like Blackburn has opened up a can on Bredesen in TN. Almost a 20 pt shift in a month, and I don't see the NY Times/Siena as friendly polling:

NY Times/Siena   10/8 - 10/11   593 LV   4.2   54   40   Blackburn +14
CBS News/YouGov   10/2 - 10/5   871 LV   --   50   42   Blackburn +8
FOX News   9/29 - 10/2   666 LV   3.5   48   43   Blackburn +5
CNN   9/11 - 9/15   723 LV   4.3   45   50   Bredesen +5

[austingirl]

Cruz vs Beatoff on C-SPAN 8pm CST Tuesday, October 16th final debate.

[Cyber Liberty]

Here is an interesting map from 2016, Trump vs Clinton.  You can zoom in to individual precincts.

https://i2.wp.com/www.nationalreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/sweet-meteor-of-death-candidate-b-2.jpg?fit=788%2C460&ssl=1

(H/T to @Quix)

Yes, it's 2016, but it's interesting to see which precincts went Clinton.  The one I am currently in was always red, but is now blue.  I was wondering why the people seem to be getting nastier.  Trump yard signs were being shredded the night after they went up.  People were afraid to put them up, or sport bumper stickers for fear of vandalism.

The County to which I am moving is solid red, the reddest in AZ.

[Quix]

Thanks. Appreciated.

[Free Vulcan]

NV Senate tossup race, GOP Heller has shifted 11 points from down 4 to up 7 in two weeks

Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   48   41   Heller +7
NY Times/Siena   10/8 - 10/10   642 LV   4.0   47   45   Heller +2
NBC News/Marist   9/30 - 10/3   574 LV   5.5   46   44   Heller +2
CNN*   9/25 - 9/29   693 LV   4.6   43   47   Rosen +4

NV Governor race, GOP Laxalt has moved up 10 points

Emerson*   10/10 - 10/12   625 LV   4.2   46   41   Laxalt +5
NBC News/Marist   9/30 - 10/3   574 LV   5.5   46   45   Laxalt +1
CNN*   9/25 - 9/29   693 LV   4.6   41   45   Sisolak +4

MN 8th has went from tossup to leans OGP, 16 point gain for GOP Stauber

NY Times/Siena   10/11 - 10/14   507 LV   4.6   49   34   Stauber +15
NY Times/Siena   9/6 - 9/9   504 LV   4.6   43   44   Radinovich +1

Florida Guy
‏ @floridaguy267
Oct 13

MONTANA At Large Congressional District.  GOP Gianforte 49%, DEM Williams 43%.

Minnesota 8th Congressional District.  GOP Stauber 52%, DEM Radinovich 41%.

MINNESOTA 2ND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT GOP Lewis 49%, DEM Craig 40%.

NEW JERSEY 11TH Congressional District. GOP Webber 48%, DEM Sherrill 45%.

MICHIGAN 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.  GOP Upton 48%, Dem Longjohn 40%.

MICHIGAN 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.  GOP Bishop 49%, DEM Slotkin 40%.

ILLINOIS 13th Congressional District.  GOP Davis 52%, DEM Longjohn 45%.

NORTH CAROLINA 9TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.  GOP Harris 44%, DEM Mccready 42%.

Minnesota 7th Congressional District GOP Hughes 41%, Democrat Peterson 50%

NEBRASKA 2nd Congressional District GOP Bacon 52%, DEM Eastman 38%.

ALASKA At large Congressional District.  GOP YOUNG 53%, DEM Galvin 43%.

IOWA 1st Congressional District GOP Blum 46%, Dem Finkenauer 41%.

UTAH 4th Congressional District GOP Love 49%, DEM McAdams 44%.

WASHINGTON STATE SENATE RACE. DEM Cantwell 49%, GOP Hutchison 42%

CONNECTICUT SENATE RACE. GOP Stefanowski 44%, DEM Lamont 44%.

CONNECTICUT Senate Race DEM Murphy 49%, GOP Corey 45%.

MASSACHUSETTS SENATE RACE. DEM Warren 49%, GOP Diehl 43%.

NEW JERSEY 11th Congressional District. GOP Webber 48%, DEM Sherrill 45%.

KENTUCKY 6TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. GOP Barr 51%, DEM McGrath 44%

WASHINGTON 8TH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.  GOP Rossi 52%, DEM Schrier 36%.

ILLINOIS 12th Congressional District.  GOP Bost 53%, DEM Kelly 39%.

NEW JERSEY 3rd Congressional District GOP MacArthur 47%, DEM Kim 37%.

VIRGINIA 10TH Congressional District.  GOP Comstock 51%, DEM Wexton 45%.

CALIFORNIA 39TH CONGRESSIONAL RACE. GOP KIM 50%, DEM CISNEROS 45%.

ARIZONA 1st Congressional Race.   GOP Rogers 47%, DEM  O'Halleron 38%.  Folks keep an eye on this race.   Democrats should be up 5% in this race.

FLORIDA 6TH CONGRESSIONAL RACE.  GOP WALTZ 47%, DEM SODERBERG 43%.

FLORIDA 18TH CONGRESSIONAL RACE.  GOP MAST 53%, DEM BAER 40%.

FLORIDA 26TH Congressional GOP Curaelo 51%, DEM 47%.

FLORIDA 15TH Congressional Race.  GOP Spano 49%, DEM 36%.

FLORIDA 9th Congressional Race.  GOP Liebnitzky 43%, DEM Soto 45%.

FLORIDA 16 Congressional District.   GOP Buchanan 55%, DEM Shapiro 40%.

FLORIDA 6TH...OOPS I see a math error...we will recalculate

FLORIDA 27th Congressional District.  GOP Salazar 47%, Dem Shalala 39%.  GOP opens up an 8 pt lead.

CALIFORNIA SENATE RACE. DEM FEINSTEIN 40%, DEM LEON 40%.

California Governor. GOP COX 43%, DEM NEWSOME 45%.

Minnesota Senate Race. DEM Incumbent Klobuchar 53%, GOP Challenger Newberger 42%.

MINNESOTA SENATE RACE. DEM Smith 43%, GOP Housley 43%.

MINNESOTA AG RACE. GOP Wardlow 46%, DEM Keith Ellison 42%, IND Johnson 6%

Virginia Senate Race.  DEMOCRAT Incumbent Kaine 47%, GOP Challenger Stewart 45%.

OREGON GOVERNOR RACE. DEM BROWN 47%, GOP Muehler 47%.

GEORGIA GOVERNOR RACE. GOP KEMP 53%, DEM ABRAMS 44%.

NEW JERSEY SENATE RACE. DEMOCRAT Incumbent Melendez 39%, GOP Challenger Hugin 49%.

MONTANA SENATE RACE. DEM Incumbent Tester 44%, GOP Challenger Rosendale 52%.

West Virginia Senate Race. GOP Challenger Morrissey 45%, DEM Incumbent Manchin 41%.

[Frank Cannon]

MN 8th has went from tossup to leans OGP, 16 point gain for GOP Stauber

Not the damn OGP. I have had enough of those dyslexic bastards.

[Free Vulcan]

Not the damn OGP. I have had enough of those dyslexic bastards.

The crusty Old Guy's Party. Get off my lwan!