Not sure if I buy that.
I don't. McCain wasn't someone like Collins or Murkowski who just cast obligatory, pro forma repeal votes they knew wouldn't matter. He actively and aggressively campaigned against ObamaCare for years, especially in his most recent election. This is basically a complete 180.
The reason McCain didn't vote for that bill is pure personal pique. He's pissed at Trump and didn't want to hand him a victory of any kind. McCain's behavior on the floor, etc., all point to an emotion-based decision. Anything he can do to sabotage Trump, he'll do, and I'm sure he celebrated knowing how much he pissed Trump off.
The silver lining in all this is that the bill would have failed even without McCain's vote, and we may well have gotten some Democrat-alternative when the moderate Republicans join Democrats in the House and Senate. Trump may even have signed such a "compromise" bill prior to this vote. But I have to think that McCain so openly spitting in Trump's eye will lead Trump to make an emotion-based decision. Rather than letting McCain "win" by getting some moderate Dem bill through, Trump will dig in his heels and likely promise a veto, just to ensure that McCain doesn't win.
So though it would have been better had the bill passed, I'm glad that if it was going to fail, it would fail in the way it did. And I don't buy for a second that McConnell knew this was going to happen when McCain was in Arizona. He probably learned when the "Maverick" decided to start venting.