Republicans Have to Pass Their Health Care Bill to Find Out What's In It

[EasyAce]

The House will vote today on a bill without knowing the cost or what it will do.
By Peter Suderman
http://reason.com/blog/2017/05/04/republicans-health-care-cost-cbo-ahca/print

In March 2010, in the hours before the final vote to pass Obamacare, John Boehner, then the top Republican in
the House, gave a fiery speech denouncing not only the soon-to-be-law, but the process that had led to the vote.

"Look at how this bill was written," he
said. "Can you say it was done openly? With transparency and accountability?
Without backroom deals struck behind closed doors hidden from the people? Hell no you can't."

All of these questions could now be asked of the GOP's bill to rewrite Obamacare. And the answer to every one of them
would be the same as the one Boehner gave seven years ago: Hell no.

Republicans are preparing to vote on a health care bill today that is even less transparent and accountable than Obama-
care, on a rushed vote that was negotiated almost entirely via backroom deals.

The House is expected to vote on the American Health Care Act (AHCA), sometime today. But Republicans, by their own
accounts, have no idea what it will do.

The bill itself was only finalized last night, with the addition of an amendment by Fred Upton that would provide an
additional $8 billion to fund state high risk pools.

The inclusion of that amendment won over Upton and a few other lawmakers who had complained that the bill didn't do
enough for people with preexisting conditions. But just the day before, when Upton was still opposed to the law, he had
said that more money wouldn't solve the problem.

Upton's amendment is just one of many backroom deals included in the bill entirely to win over holdout votes. The bill
also includes legislative kickbacks for the New York delegation and other House members.

Meanwhile, Upton

admits he doesn't even know if the money he secured in exchange for his vote is enough to solve the
problem he wanted to fix. "Is it enough? I don't know. That's the question I was asked. I was led to believe that $5 billion
was enough, which is why it's $8 billion," he told Dylan Scott of Vox.

Upton is simply taking House leadership's word, on a provision that he previously said wouldn't be sufficient to win him
over. (There is reason to believe that leadership is wrong. As Robert Graboyes, a health policy scholar at the Mercatus
Center, said yesterday, high risk pools are typically underfunded, and $8 billion in extra money is a "pittance.")

One reason Upton can't say what his amendment will do is that the bill, in its current form, has not been scored by the
Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

That is highly unusual for a bill of this magnitude. And it goes against the sort of policy process that Republicans have
typically insisted on for other legislation, including Obamacare. For example, back in 2009, when Congress was debating
Obamacare, Paul Ryan, now the GOP Speaker of the House, repeatedly criticized Democrats who voted for the legislation
that would become Obamacare without a CBO score during the committee process. "I don't think we should pass bills
that we haven't read, that we don't know what they cost," he

said at the time.

Ryan is now about to preside over a full House vote on a health care bill that has not been scored by the Congressional
Budget Office. The Republicans who vote to pass it today will not know what it costs.

Indeed, it's notable how little independent analysis of this bill we have seen. Republicans not only do not have an estimate
from the Congressional Budget Office, they have not been able to point to any cost or impact estimate by outside organi-
zations, even conservative groups friendly to the GOP. Earlier this week, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan posted a bullet-
pointed list of effects he claimed the bill would have with the word "VERIFIED." The document cited no outside sources for
its claims. It had not been verified by anyone.

The Trump administration, which over the last month has aggressively pushed House Republicans to vote on the bill, has
also dismissed worries about cost estimates and analysis entirely.

"It is literally impossible at this point" to predict the effects of the GOP health care bill, White House Press Secretary Sean
Spicer

said yesterday. So we have to pass the bill to find out what's in it?

There is some trivial truth to the notion that legislative analysts cannot perfectly predict the future. But that's a reason to
understand the limitations of legislative analysis rather than to avoid it entirely. A CBO score, or any competent independent
analysis, would give us a better idea of the likely cost and results of the bill. Right now, on the day that House Republicans
are set to vote, no such analysis exists. It is hard to avoid the conclusion that Republicans are rushing to hold a vote now
because they do not want GOP legislators to know what it costs, and what it is likely to do.

Spicer's argument that it's impossible to know what the bill will do is especially galling given all of the evidence that his boss,
President Donald Trump, has no idea what is in the bill. The White House is effectively making the case for ignorance about
a bill that will affect health coverage for millions, and will reorganize a sixth of the U.S. economy.

To summarize: Republicans don't know what's in the bill. They don't know what it will cost. And they don't know what it will
do. But they must pass it immediately.

The process leading to today's AHCA vote is worse in every way than the process that led to Obamacare, which, when Boehner
delivered his speech, had a CBO score, and had been debated for an entire year. It was a bad idea then. It's worse now.

[Cripplecreek]

Considering the fact that Jared Kushner's brother Josh went into the insurance business just in time to get in on the Obamacare game, I'm not expecting much.

[ABX]

It isn't just Congress that can't see what is in it, it is the American People as a whole. They are supposed to represent us so how will they know what the people's will is if they can't even read it.

We are told just to 'trust them' even though the Fed Gov is the most untrusted group of people in this country.

[Bigun]

Watching the bill debate on CSPAN and see the democrats squealing like pigs caught under a gate.  Must be something in it to REALLY like!

[ABX]

Watching the bill debate on CSPAN and see the democrats squealing like pigs caught under a gate.  Must be something in it to REALLY like!

Apparently they haven't seen the bill either. They are posturing for the cameras, playing the us versus them game. Firing up their base for opposition for the sake of opposing. It could be two lines that says to continue Obamacare like it is, and they would squeal like pigs.

[roamer_1]

Fast push... so fast they aren't even waiting for the CBO report.

Dumb.
Deceptive.
Familiar.

[Cripplecreek]

Apparently they haven't seen the bill either. They are posturing for the cameras, playing the us versus them game. Firing up their base for opposition for the sake of opposing. It could be two lines that says to continue Obamacare like it is, and they would squeal like pigs.

Yeah. My liberal sister informed me yesterday that the republicans are openly saying that pre existing conditions are the fault of the patient and tough noogies.

Its not true but she believes it.

[Bigun]

Fast push... so fast they aren't even waiting for the CBO report.

Dumb.
Deceptive.
Familiar.

The CBO is a total waste of time and money!  They are constrained to using ONLY static analysis in looking at ANYTHING and thus cannot take into account ANY behavioral changes that will occur as a result of doing anything!

[Bigun]

Can you call today and get insurance on the boat you ran into a bridge piling and sank yesterday? 

[rangerrebew]

I'll bet there are many, many striking similarities to the "Affordable" Care Act.

[ABX]

Before the ACA, there was a preexisting condition high risk pool that subsidized insurance premiums for people with preexisting conditions so it made it more affordable. Now, people with preexisting conditions can claim they have insurance in theory, but they can't afford to use it due to the tens of thousands of dollars in deductibles they didn't have before.

[roamer_1]

The CBO is a total waste of time and money!  They are constrained to using ONLY static analysis in looking at ANYTHING and thus cannot take into account ANY behavioral changes that will occur as a result of doing anything!

I get it. but what's it say when they are shoving this bill through so fast they don't even try to examine the cost??

Somebody's pulling a fast one.
Something is getting slipped past the goalie.
I don't like it when the Democrats do it.
Nor do I like it when Republicans do either.
Bullsh*t,

[EasyAce]

Watching the bill debate on CSPAN and see the democrats squealing like pigs caught under a gate.  Must be something in it to REALLY like!

Just because a Democrat squeals like a pig over a bill, it doesn't mean the bill is therefore sound. Bad or dubious
legislation is bad or dubious legislation whether it comes from the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, or the
Tupperware party.

[Polly Ticks]

I get it. but what's it say when they are shoving this bill through so fast they don't even try to examine the cost??

Somebody's pulling a fast one.
Something is getting slipped past the goalie.
I don't like it when the Democrats do it.
Nor do I like it when Republicans do either.
Bullsh*t,

 

[Bigun]

Just because a Democrat squeals like a pig over a bill, it doesn't mean the bill is therefore sound. Bad or dubious
legislation is bad or dubious legislation whether it comes from the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, or the
Tupperware party.

I agree! This happens to be a live or die moment for the Republicans and they HAVE to do it! I'm going to withhold final judgement until I see what the result is at the end of the day. 

One thing I am absolutely certain of is that Obamacare has GOT to go and free markets MUST be revived!

[geronl]

The default position should be to vote no on something like this

[corbe]

   All ye of little Faith, this will all be fixed in Phase II and III /s

[EasyAce]

One thing I am absolutely certain of is that Obamacare has GOT to go and free markets MUST be revived!

Yes indeed. But from the little look of it, this bill will do anything but.

[bolobaby]

I get it. but what's it say when they are shoving this bill through so fast they don't even try to examine the cost??

Somebody's pulling a fast one.
Something is getting slipped past the goalie.
I don't like it when the Democrats do it.
Nor do I like it when Republicans do either.
Bullsh*t,

+1 @roamer_1

Hit the nail on the head.

[Bigun]

Yes indeed. But from the little look of it, this bill will do anything but.

Of an by itself yes!  I myself would have much preferred a clean repeal bill and work forward from there but there is NO stomach for that currently and they SAY that this is just the first part of a grand strategy so I will wait and see before I render my final verdict..

[roamer_1]

Of an by itself yes!  I myself would have much preferred a clean repeal bill and work forward from there but there is NO stomach for that currently and they SAY that this is just the first part of a grand strategy so I will wait and see before I render my final verdict..

I'll differ from you in this, @Bigun ... Color me skeptical, that's fine. I'll withhold judgement when judgement is no longer necessary. And in the current environment, it's always necessary. I don't trust a man-jack of them, and least of all the leadership. Trust is earned, not given.

[Bigun]

I'll differ from you in this, @Bigun ... Color me skeptical, that's fine. I'll withhold judgement when judgement is no longer necessary. And in the current environment, it's always necessary. I don't trust a man-jack of them, and least of all the leadership. Trust is earned, not given.

I understand and respect your position. We shall see.   

[EasyAce]

Of an by itself yes!  I myself would have much preferred a clean repeal bill and work forward from there but there is NO stomach for that currently and they SAY that this is just the first part of a grand strategy so I will wait and see before I render my final verdict..

Ahhhhh, the old strategery argument. ;)

Been there, done that, had the Obama regime shoved down my throat as a result.

[Bigun]

Ahhhhh, the old strategery argument. ;)

Been there, done that, had the Obama regime shoved down my throat as a result.

We'll see!   

I will assure you of one thing. If their grand strategy fails this time they are stick a fork in them done!

[EasyAce]

We'll see!   

I will assure you of one thing. If their grand strategy fails this time they are stick a fork in them done!

Been there, done that, too. Sorry. The road to Damnocratic hell is still paved with Republican't
good intentions.