Author Topic: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity  (Read 2358 times)

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rangerrebew

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The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« on: September 16, 2016, 02:57:26 pm »
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Posted by Ross Pomeroy

In the early 1600s, pioneering astronomer Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. By the end of the century, Isaac Newton followed Kepler's example with three laws of his own, describing the relationship between an object and the forces acting on it, thus laying the foundations for classical mechanics. Almost exactly three hundred years later, Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California - Berkeley, introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.

While these laws are not taught in grade school, they do hold lessons worthy of reflection in this modern era. Stupidity today is on display more than ever before -- on TV, YouTube, and the city streets you frequent each and every day. To better react to and avoid such dimwitted behavior, one must first understand it. Cipolla's insightful set of five laws is a helpful guide.

His first law sets the stage.

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2016/09/the_basic_laws_of_human_stupidity.html
« Last Edit: September 16, 2016, 02:58:48 pm by rangerrebew »

rangerrebew

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #1 on: September 16, 2016, 03:02:39 pm »

Offline r9etb

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #2 on: September 16, 2016, 03:34:51 pm »
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Yes, but....

Experience shows that "Smart People" are the ones we really need to worry about. 

Because there is a certain class of smart people -- they currently control politics, academia, media, finance, and a variety of industries -- who are also prone to arrogance and hubris, and they're the ones who do things to protect themselves from, and to control (for their own good), people whom they consider to be "stupid."
« Last Edit: September 16, 2016, 03:35:17 pm by r9etb »

Online Ghost Bear

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2016, 03:44:56 pm »
The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

Posted by Ross Pomeroy

In the early 1600s, pioneering astronomer Johannes Kepler put forth his three laws of planetary motion, which, for the first time, provided an accurate and evidence-based description of the movement of the Solar System's planets around the Sun. By the end of the century, Isaac Newton followed Kepler's example with three laws of his own, describing the relationship between an object and the forces acting on it, thus laying the foundations for classical mechanics. Almost exactly three hundred years later, Carlo M. Cipolla, a professor of economic history at the University of California - Berkeley, introduced a set of laws no less revelatory than those of Kepler or Newton: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity.

While these laws are not taught in grade school, they do hold lessons worthy of reflection in this modern era. Stupidity today is on display more than ever before -- on TV, YouTube, and the city streets you frequent each and every day. To better react to and avoid such dimwitted behavior, one must first understand it. Cipolla's insightful set of five laws is a helpful guide.

His first law sets the stage.

http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2016/09/the_basic_laws_of_human_stupidity.html

Very interesting! Thanks for posting it!
Let it burn.

Offline Doug Loss

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 11:46:12 am »
Yes, but....

Experience shows that "Smart People" are the ones we really need to worry about. 

Because there is a certain class of smart people -- they currently control politics, academia, media, finance, and a variety of industries -- who are also prone to arrogance and hubris, and they're the ones who do things to protect themselves from, and to control (for their own good), people whom they consider to be "stupid."

There is a great difference between intelligence and wisdom.  There are, as you say, many quite intelligent but extremely foolish people around, who have convinced themselves that their intelligence compensates for (indeed, eclipses) their foolishness and that they therefore should be in control of pretty much everything.  It takes truly wise people to recognize them for what they are and to forcefully oppose them.
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Oceander

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 12:13:47 pm »
The "Laws"

Quote
1. "Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation."

2. "The probability that a certain person will be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person."

3. "A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses."

4. "Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake."

5. "A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person."

Don't think I agree with all of them, particularly the last.  In my view, the most dangerous type of person is the arrogant smart guy who has no wisdom nor common sense.  I also don't think I agree with the definition of a stupid person.  What he has defined is a dangerous person, not a stupid person.  The common meaning of the term "stupid" is at odds with his definition.

By any measure - other than the author's - Mao, Stalin, and Hitler were not stupid people, but they were the most dangerous people in all of the Twentieth Century, and most likely human history.

That the degree of dangerousness is correlated more with wisdom than with stupidity (more technically, the degree of dangerousness is inversely correlated with the degree of wisdom) is demonstrated by the fact that the U.S. only used the atom bomb twice, and only to end a conflict that had dragged on for years, killed millions, and would have taken the lives of potentially millions more to conclude by conventional arms alone, and never again used it, not to defeat the Soviets, not to defeat the Chinese communists, not to defeat the North Korean communists, not to defeat the Vietnamese communists, etc, etc, etc.

The blunt matter of fact is that if the U.S. had used the atomic bomb in the Korean war to shut down the North Korean communists and their Chinese backers, their would not have been an atomic counter-attack:  the Chinese communists at that time did not possess nuclear weapons (certainly not deployable gadgets) at the time, and the Soviets would almost certainly have sat back and allowed the U.S. to weaken their enemies in Beijing.  I believe that this was most likely discussed, at least at the highest levels, within the U.S. military command.  But wiser heads prevailed - as they usually do in the U.S. - and the atomic bomb has never been used again since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

And yet, at the end of WWII, the most dangerous country in the world - in terms of the ability to inflict harm on other people without being restrained by anyone or anything - was the U.S.  Quite frankly, the Europeans were a mangled mess of potage at the end of WWII, the Soviets as well, the Chinese embroiled in internal turmoil (and technologically backward), and the Japanese worse than a mangled mess of pottage, and the remaining Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia not sufficiently strong, that the U.S., had it wanted to, could have conquered most of the world.  Think of it, but for the wisdom of Truman, the U.S. government generally, and the American people, generally, we could have had an American Empire that would have been the greatest empire the world had ever seen.  Forget the Roman Empire - pikers - forget Alexander the Great - another piker by comparison - forget the British Empire - a distant second - the American Empire would have included most countries other than, most likely, the Soviet Union, what became Eastern Europe, and most likely China.  The remaining Commonwealth countries (again, Canada, Australia, etc) would have become mere satellites or dependent client states of the U.S.

But wiser heads did prevail, because the U.S., although not without plenty of its own faults and motes, has generally been a fount of wisdom when it comes to human geopolitical history.

Thus, what matters most is not the axis running from stupidity (in the conventional sense) to intelligence, but the axis running from wisdom to its antithesis.  Certainly stupidity plays a role, but mostly to the extent that it incorporates implicitly a lack of wisdom.

A wise fool is usually preferable to an unwise genius.

Obama is certainly a good example of this.

Offline r9etb

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #6 on: September 17, 2016, 12:39:44 pm »
Don't think I agree with all of them, particularly the last... (and all that follows)

Excellent.  You nailed it.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2016, 12:40:55 pm by r9etb »

Offline Sanguine

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #7 on: September 17, 2016, 04:22:17 pm »
Good article.  He makes a good case.

Offline Cripplecreek

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #8 on: September 17, 2016, 04:33:20 pm »
Stupidity becomes greater in large groups.

HonestJohn

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #9 on: September 17, 2016, 08:41:32 pm »

The blunt matter of fact is that if the U.S. had used the atomic bomb in the Korean war to shut down the North Korean communists and their Chinese backers, their would not have been an atomic counter-attack:  the Chinese communists at that time did not possess nuclear weapons (certainly not deployable gadgets) at the time, and the Soviets would almost certainly have sat back and allowed the U.S. to weaken their enemies in Beijing.  I believe that this was most likely discussed, at least at the highest levels, within the U.S. military command.  But wiser heads prevailed - as they usually do in the U.S. - and the atomic bomb has never been used again since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.


A couple of things about this part.

At the time of the Korean War, China and Russia were allies, not enemies.  And China did not willingly go into Korea, but did so only at the urging of Stalin.  It wasn't until after Stalin's death did the two become enemies.  For Mao thought he'd become the leader of the communist world after Stalin, due to his seniority as a communist leader.  And Khruschev was not having any of that.

Secondly, the worry wasn't so much that the Soviets would start a nuclear war if we used nukes in China, but that Stalin might launch a ground invasion of Europe to relieve US pressure in the far east.

Dor after WWII, the allies (US, UK, France) demobilized.  Whereas the USSR did not (at least, in Europe - they did in Asia, turning over their weaponry to the Communists in China, which allowed Mao to win the Chinese civil war).

Had Stalin started a ground war in Europe, the US would have had to quickly shift everything we had into Europe, just to slow Stalin down... and we'd have probably needed our nukes even then.

It wasn't really until the Korean war that we understood that there *WAS* a new, cold war.  Eisenhower in 1952 was the real start of that.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2016, 12:34:16 am by HonestJohn »

rangerrebew

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #10 on: September 17, 2016, 08:58:02 pm »
 

Offline goatprairie

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #11 on: September 17, 2016, 10:22:29 pm »
Yes, but....

Experience shows that "Smart People" are the ones we really need to worry about. 

Because there is a certain class of smart people -- they currently control politics, academia, media, finance, and a variety of industries -- who are also prone to arrogance and hubris, and they're the ones who do things to protect themselves from, and to control (for their own good), people whom they consider to be "stupid."
What you said, but most certainly many people who are not nearly as smart as they think they are.
As a caveat, I hope all my own stupid actions are behind me. I will not share with this forum the dumb things I've done, but rest assured I did them.
Nevertheless, another thing to add which somewhat ties in with your statement is the dumb things done by intelligent people. In short, everybody (including  many intelligent people) will do very dumb things in their lives but make up for it by doing far more smart things. Nobody is a complete genius.

Offline goatprairie

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #12 on: September 17, 2016, 10:29:36 pm »
The "Laws"

Don't think I agree with all of them, particularly the last.  In my view, the most dangerous type of person is the arrogant smart guy who has no wisdom nor common sense.  I also don't think I agree with the definition of a stupid person.  What he has defined is a dangerous person, not a stupid person.  The common meaning of the term "stupid" is at odds with his definition.

By any measure - other than the author's - Mao, Stalin, and Hitler were not stupid people, but they were the most dangerous people in all of the Twentieth Century, and most likely human history.

That the degree of dangerousness is correlated more with wisdom than with stupidity (more technically, the degree of dangerousness is inversely correlated with the degree of wisdom) is demonstrated by the fact that the U.S. only used the atom bomb twice, and only to end a conflict that had dragged on for years, killed millions, and would have taken the lives of potentially millions more to conclude by conventional arms alone, and never again used it, not to defeat the Soviets, not to defeat the Chinese communists, not to defeat the North Korean communists, not to defeat the Vietnamese communists, etc, etc, etc.

The blunt matter of fact is that if the U.S. had used the atomic bomb in the Korean war to shut down the North Korean communists and their Chinese backers, their would not have been an atomic counter-attack:  the Chinese communists at that time did not possess nuclear weapons (certainly not deployable gadgets) at the time, and the Soviets would almost certainly have sat back and allowed the U.S. to weaken their enemies in Beijing.  I believe that this was most likely discussed, at least at the highest levels, within the U.S. military command.  But wiser heads prevailed - as they usually do in the U.S. - and the atomic bomb has never been used again since Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

And yet, at the end of WWII, the most dangerous country in the world - in terms of the ability to inflict harm on other people without being restrained by anyone or anything - was the U.S.  Quite frankly, the Europeans were a mangled mess of potage at the end of WWII, the Soviets as well, the Chinese embroiled in internal turmoil (and technologically backward), and the Japanese worse than a mangled mess of pottage, and the remaining Commonwealth countries such as Canada and Australia not sufficiently strong, that the U.S., had it wanted to, could have conquered most of the world.  Think of it, but for the wisdom of Truman, the U.S. government generally, and the American people, generally, we could have had an American Empire that would have been the greatest empire the world had ever seen.  Forget the Roman Empire - pikers - forget Alexander the Great - another piker by comparison - forget the British Empire - a distant second - the American Empire would have included most countries other than, most likely, the Soviet Union, what became Eastern Europe, and most likely China.  The remaining Commonwealth countries (again, Canada, Australia, etc) would have become mere satellites or dependent client states of the U.S.

But wiser heads did prevail, because the U.S., although not without plenty of its own faults and motes, has generally been a fount of wisdom when it comes to human geopolitical history.

Thus, what matters most is not the axis running from stupidity (in the conventional sense) to intelligence, but the axis running from wisdom to its antithesis.  Certainly stupidity plays a role, but mostly to the extent that it incorporates implicitly a lack of wisdom.

A wise fool is usually preferable to an unwise genius.

Obama is certainly a good example of this.
Very true. Stupid people virtually never control the levers of power in major countries. In the old days of kings and queens stupid people could rule major countries. Today most major countries have taken power away from the royalty. The people who've done horrible things have either taken power by force and have been elected to it. But they weren't stupid.  Nevertheless, the great harm they've done far outweighs the harm done today by selected stupid people.

Offline EasyAce

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #13 on: September 17, 2016, 11:01:41 pm »
Every time I have reason to hope that stupidity is on the wane, there comes a phenomenon
such as this year's presidential candidates. Obviously my hope doesn't float.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2016, 11:02:07 pm by EasyAce »


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Offline Smokin Joe

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Re: The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity
« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2016, 08:41:49 am »
Every time I have reason to hope that stupidity is on the wane, there comes a phenomenon
such as this year's presidential candidates. Obviously my hope doesn't float.
True, that, only I experienced that sort of epiphany when Obama was RE-elected. I thought stupidity in this nation had finally reached its zenith. Wrong again...
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