The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly

[mystery-ak]

 Aug 9, 2016 at 6:30 AM
The Polls Aren’t Skewed: Trump Really Is Losing Badly

By Harry Enten

Filed under 2016 Election

We’ve reached that stage of the campaign. The back-to-school commercials are on the air, and the “unskewing” of polls has begun — the quadrennial exercise in which partisans simply adjust the polls to get results more to their liking, usually with a thin sheen of math-y words to make it all sound like rigorous analysis instead of magical thinking.

If any of this sounds familiar — and if I sound a little exasperated — it’s probably because we went through this four years ago. Remember UnSkewedPolls.com? (The website is defunct, but you can view an archived picture of it here.) The main contention of that site and others like it was that the polls had too many Democratic respondents in their samples. Dean Chambers, who ran the site, regularly wrote that the polls were vastly undercounting independents and should have used a higher proportion of Republicans in their samples. But in the end, the polls underestimated President Obama’s margin.

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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

[Hoodat]

I can't help it.  I'm angry at those that fell for his BS hook, line, and sinker.

And continue to fall for it, even with the truth staring them in the face.

So many supposedly intelligent people just blindly jumped on the train to their destruction.  Unfortunately, they dragged the rest of us with them.

I'm angry, too.  Furious is more like it.  I have a very low threshold for stupidity.

[Suppressed]

https://web.archive.org/web/20121011130810/http://www.unskewedpolls.com/

[Norm Lenhart]

And continue to fall for it, even with the truth staring them in the face.


I'm angry, too.  Furious is more like it.  I have a very low threshold for stupidity.

The best thing a sane person can do is divest their lives of Trump supporters. They sold out their country for the selfish desire to win at any cost and when the SHTF, they will sell you out just as readily.

Their support if a mentally dysfunctional candidate in light of daily examples of his ineptitude and outright threat to constitutional governance demonstrates conclusively they are as great a threat to the idea of America as he is.

Folks, you can walk away from them now and leave them to wallow in the filth of their actions or be stained by it. And thats a best case scenario. When their candidate loses, they will seek revenge. It's what their kind historically does.

[Night Hides Not]

The best thing a sane person can do is divest their lives of Trump supporters. They sold out their country for the selfish desire to win at any cost and when the SHTF, they will sell you out just as readily.

Their support if a mentally dysfunctional candidate in light of daily examples of his ineptitude and outright threat to constitutional governance demonstrates conclusively they are as great a threat to the idea of America as he is.

Folks, you can walk away from them now and leave them to wallow in the filth of their actions or be stained by it. And thats a best case scenario. When their candidate loses, they will seek revenge. It's what their kind historically does.

It would be poetic justice if Salem Radio/660 AM The (Wrong) Answer shows Mark Davis the door. He's becoming unhinged over his insistence that Trump be elected, if only to keep Hillary from the presidency. About the only worthwhile host they have left on the station is John David Wells, who has been relegated to the 8-11 PM slot. The rest of that lineup is ... blech: Gallagher, Hannity, Medved. I guess Prager is ok, but that's about it.

[kevindavis007]

It would be poetic justice if Salem Radio/660 AM The (Wrong) Answer shows Mark Davis the door. He's becoming unhinged over his insistence that Trump be elected, if only to keep Hillary from the presidency. About the only worthwhile host they have left on the station is John David Wells, who has been relegated to the 8-11 PM slot. The rest of that lineup is ... blech: Gallagher, Hannity, Medved. I guess Prager is ok, but that's about it.

The only show that I listen to is Medved.  To be honest I stopped listening to Gallagher when he went for Trump.  Hannity, stopped listening to him way before this election. Prager is boring as hell.. I think we are about to see the end of Talk Radio.

[kevindavis007]

Not falling for the "Polls are wrong" BS that has happened in the last few elections.  They were right on the money.

To be honest I fell for it 2012..

Trump is way down and will stay down.  He doesn't have a chance of winning this election, imo; but we all already knew that during the primaries.  The polls told us all that as well.  Now we get that sorry excuse for a human Hillary for POTUS.

I can't help it.  I'm angry at those that fell for his BS hook, line, and sinker.  So many supposedly intelligent people just blindly jumped on the train to their destruction.  Unfortunately, they dragged the rest of us with them.

Lets just hope we can recover from Trump.

[guitar4jesus]

Lets just hope we can recover from Trump.

Yup!

[HAPPY2BME]

Shock Poll: Reuters/Ipsos Radically Changes Methodology to Favor Clinton

.

[GrouchoTex]

Not falling for the "Polls are wrong" BS that has happened in the last few elections.  They were right on the money.

Trump is way down and will stay down.  He doesn't have a chance of winning this election, imo; but we all already knew that during the primaries.  The polls told us all that as well.  Now we get that sorry excuse for a human Hillary for POTUS.

I can't help it.  I'm angry at those that fell for his BS hook, line, and sinker.  So many supposedly intelligent people just blindly jumped on the train to their destruction.  Unfortunately, they dragged the rest of us with them.

We now have a bizarre scenario where Ryan,McCain and Ayotte are held in higher esteem by these so-called "outsiders" and their so-called "Candidate" than Cruz is.

[cato potatoe]

According to 538, Trump is projected to lose every state on the Atlantic seaboard except for South Carolina, where he is favored by 1.6%.  He is only projected to win Texas 48-44.  Missouri is close to the tipping point as well. 

[NavyCanDo]

The only show that I listen to is Medved.  To be honest I stopped listening to Gallagher when he went for Trump.  Hannity, stopped listening to him way before this election. Prager is boring as hell.. I think we are about to see the end of Talk Radio.

Same here about the Medved Show.   And he's never been disrespectful to the Trump callers. Just up front and honest with them telling them what Trump would need to do to have a chance at winning which he is not doing, laying it down and speaking the truth. The callers never want to hear the truth, but things are no different than here on TBR.

And when its not election season, I could listen to his history tapes all day.

[NavyCanDo]

Shock Poll: Reuters/Ipsos Radically Changes Methodology to Favor Clinton

.

You keep reaching into your pocket and pulling out the same Reuters/Ipos poll like it was supposed to reveal some great story or even a conspiracy. It doesn't.   Clinton has lead that same poll for a long time, by 5% before the conventions and by 4% after only giving up 1% to Trump.   The rest of the most watched polls are not as favorable to Trump.   So put that poll back in your pocket for the next time you fell like a gotcha.

[Cripplecreek]

Lets just hope we can recover from Trump.

I'd rather lose standing for the constitution than 'win' at its expense.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Hillary will be elected in November. Possibly with Walter Mondale, Dukakis proportions. Landslide.

There's a good chance the economy will crash in the next 4 years IMO.

That's basically the only hope. Democrats will have a hegemony over the nation for the next 30 years, and it will be a drastically different place when done.

There's no way that Trump's followers and the #nevertrump's ever have a reconciliation. This split is permanent. The #nevertrumps will probably either go 3rd party or join the democrats. The Trumpsters will never ever be convinced that they made a mistake. They went with "their gut".

The GOP base is an aging bunch of geriatric looney toons and bible thumping illiterates. No wonder they don't appeal to the millenials.

Nature has selected the GOP and conservatism for extinction.

[Cripplecreek]

Hillary will be elected in November. Possibly with Walter Mondale, Dukakis proportions. Landslide.

There's a good chance the economy will crash in the next 4 years IMO.

That's basically the only hope. Democrats will have a hegemony over the nation for the next 30 years, and it will be a drastically different place when done.

There's no way that Trump's followers and the #nevertrump's ever have a reconciliation. This split is permanent. The #nevertrumps will probably either go 3rd party or join the democrats. The Trumpsters will never ever be convinced that they made a mistake. They went with "their gut".

The GOP base is an aging bunch of geriatric looney toons and bible thumping illiterates. No wonder they don't appeal to the millenials.

Nature has selected the GOP and conservatism for extinction.

This NeverTrumper is a constitutional conservative and any suggestion that I'll join the democrats is stupid beyond words.

If anything I think conservatives may end up seizing control of the GOP. Looks like there is already a "plot" afoot to replace Rince Pubus with Carly Fiorina.

[Gov Bean Counter]

This NeverTrumper is a constitutional conservative and any suggestion that I'll join the democrats is stupid beyond words.

If anything I think conservatives may end up seizing control of the GOP. Looks like there is already a "plot" afoot to replace Rince Pubus with Carly Fiorina.

And at a minimum Jeff Sessions should be stripped of all committee/sub-committee chairmanships. He, above all others, is responsible for lending credibility this cretin.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

This NeverTrumper is a constitutional conservative and any suggestion that I'll join the democrats is stupid beyond words.

If anything I think conservatives may end up seizing control of the GOP. Looks like there is already a "plot" afoot to replace Rince Pubus with Carly Fiorina.

We need to stop with the silliness that Preibus wanted Trump. He was more terrified of Rump than anyone else.

It was our idiotic base, and WTA primaries that elected Rump.

[Cripplecreek]

We need to stop with the silliness that Preibus wanted Trump. He was more terrified of Rump than anyone else.

It was our idiotic base, and WTA primaries that elected Rump.

I didn't say anything about Preibus wanting Trump but he and the RNC did allow Trump to happen and it will cost them dearly.

All they had to do was say "NO" on day one. The GOP is a private institution and could have denied Trump from the beginning.

There is no way Reince (The Undertaker) Priebus survives this election.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

I didn't say anything about Preibus wanting Trump but he and the RNC did allow Trump to happen and it will cost them dearly.

All they had to do was say "NO" on day one. The GOP is a private institution and could have denied Trump from the beginning.

There is no way Reince (The Undertaker) Priebus survives this election.

I just don't see how the GOP denies a guy who wins the election. Will never happen, would never happen.

I hate Rump too. We're gonna get massacred in November. But unfortunately he won.

[Cripplecreek]

I just don't see how the GOP denies a guy who wins the election. Will never happen, would never happen.

I hate Rump too. We're gonna get massacred in November. But unfortunately he won.

You're missing the point.

They could have denied Trump from ever entering the race as a republican last spring. He would have been forced to run as an independent fringe candidate or a democrat.
 
Technically they could remove him now but they won't.

[HonestJohn]

I just don't see how the GOP denies a guy who wins the election. Will never happen, would never happen.

I hate Rump too. We're gonna get massacred in November. But unfortunately he won.

Both situations would warrant a loss in November.  The question should be, which of the scenarios would best position the GOP to win 2 and 4 years later?

[unknown]

Here is an absolute fake CNN poll that Anderson Cooper tried to ambush Trump with.

Trump told Anderson Cooper that this is why the people don't trust the media like CNN and they don't trust Anderson Cooper.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZhXMdkDFog

[geronl]

According to 538, Trump is projected to lose every state on the Atlantic seaboard except for South Carolina, where he is favored by 1.6%.  He is only projected to win Texas 48-44.  Missouri is close to the tipping point as well.

Wow. It's going to be a landslide against Trump at that rate.

[geronl]

This split is permanent. The #nevertrumps will probably either go 3rd party or join the democrats.

Why would NeverTrumps join the Democrats? Trump is a liberal Democrat, that is why they oppose him.

After the election it won't matter anyway, Trump will go back to the Democrats and praise Hillary at the inaugural.