BREAKING: Kristol Eyes Conservative Lawyer David French for Independent Presidential Run

[Mesaclone]

The plan isn't as ridiculous as it appears at first glance.  The first plan was/is to keep Trump from winning on the first ballot.  That plan probably won't work.  The back-up plan is this one, or one similar.  It's not to win an election, but if Trump and Hillary are close which seems likely, it is to try to take enough electoral votes from a handful of states to throw the election into the House, where Trump simply won't get the nod.  Yes, it's dangerous, as it was in 1992.  However there are differences.  The Country is far more divided today, a significant part of the GOP doesn't want Trump, and both candidates are seen as unlikable by majorities.  Bill Clinton was viewed favorably in '92, though GHW Bush was viewed net unfavorably, not as much as today's presumptive nominees. 

If Sanders beats Hillary, this plan likely wouldn't work, as his net favorables are high.  People generally vote for the more likeable candidate.

If the election were thrown to the House, Trump would be a lock. The procedure limits House delegations to ONLY vote for the top 3 electoral vote getters in the general election. They cannot toss in a Biden or a Romney and go that direction...so they will still be locked into voting for Trump, Hillary and whatever 3rd party person who won a few electoral votes. The candidate with, say, 12 electoral votes is not going to win the election when you have state delegations that consist of Dems and Repubs exclusively...its simply impossible. So it will fall back to 50 votes cast by 50 state delegations  for either Hillary or Trump. As I expect the GOP to have the House still...its mathematically likely they will have the majority of state delegations under their control and so will elect the GOP nominee.

So even if this all went according to plan...and its honestly ludicrous to even consider it as a realistic possibility...the end result is a Trump presidency.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

If the election were thrown to the House, Trump would be a lock. The procedure limits House delegations to ONLY vote for the top 3 electoral vote getters in the general election. They cannot toss in a Biden or a Romney and go that direction...so they will still be locked into voting for Trump, Hillary and whatever 3rd party person who won a few electoral votes. The candidate with, say, 12 electoral votes is not going to win the election when you have state delegations that consist of Dems and Repubs exclusively...its simply impossible. So it will fall back to 50 votes cast by 50 state delegations  for either Hillary or Trump. As I expect the GOP to have the House still...its mathematically likely they will have the majority of state delegations under their control and so will elect the GOP nominee.

So even if this all went according to plan...and its honestly ludicrous to even consider it as a realistic possibility...the end result is a Trump presidency.

If this David French guy pulled off Utah, or Texas or somewhere else that went relatively heavily against Trump, I don't think GOP Reps would be reluctant to pull the lever for him. Agreed that it's a longshot.

[Mesaclone]

False dichotomy error. Being against Trump does not mean being for Hillary. That's the kind of argument the establishment keeps pushing on voters to accept worse and worse candidates, turning into an R versus D football game instead of choosing the best Commander In Chief out of ALL options.

Its not a false dichotomy at all.

There is a 99.99999999999% chance the next president will be Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Nobody else has even a remote chance. That is the very definition of a dichotomous choice...unless you are clinging to the .0000000001 chance that meteorite hits DC and forces a new election entirely.

[catfish1957]

My money is on The man with no self control.  The Hugungus! Our Lord Hugungus! The Warrior of the GOP! The Ayatollah of Shit and Shinolla.

That is a joke tweet isn't it?

[Mesaclone]

If this David French guy pulled off Utah, or Texas or somewhere else that went relatively heavily against Trump, I don't think GOP Reps would be reluctant to pull the lever for him. Agreed that it's a longshot.

Zero chance the GOP delegations fail to vote for the GOP nominee...they'll know that if they split at all Hillary will win. So the chance of Trump not winning a House election at that point would be zero. Not a longshot. Zero, because there is no chance of flipping 26 state delegations to some unknown pupped of Bill Kristol...who likely is a perfectly nice guy, but a puppet nonetheless. Its absurd, and I think you know that.

[Jazzhead]

Its not a false dichotomy at all.

There is a 99.99999999999% chance the next president will be Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. Nobody else has even a remote chance. That is the very definition of a dichotomous choice...unless you are clinging to the .0000000001 chance that meteorite hits DC and forces a new election entirely.

You're hyperventilating,  Mesaclone.  I'm loving it.   

Trump's going down. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Zero chance the GOP delegations fail to vote for the GOP nominee...they'll know that if they split at all Hillary will win. So the chance of Trump not winning a House election at that point would be zero. Not a longshot. Zero, because there is no chance of flipping 26 state delegations to some unknown pupped of Bill Kristol...who likely is a perfectly nice guy, but a puppet nonetheless. Its absurd, and I think you know that.

Hillary needs a majority of the delegates within the delegation to have it (ie. the state) go for her correct? Not just a plurality.

In other words:

California has 53 reps.

If HIllary gets 26 reps, Trump gets 13, and French gets 14 she does not win that state, no matter what. She would need 27 "delegates" to win that state delegation.

Therfore vote-splitting doesn't apply. Vote-splitting only applies in plurality situations. GOP primary was an excellent example. Had it been 100% proportional, Trump would be staring at a contest convention.

[Mesaclone]

Disagree.  First and foremost he is a conservative; he could very well be the answer for many voters. Trump attacking him or Clinton attacking him will give him recognition.  Secondly, IMHO you are underestimating the amount of people who won't vote Trump or Clinton.  Those people could very well deny Trump or Clinton the majority - then it is up to the House to decide who the president is.

You don't, apparently, understand how it works if the election is thrown into the House. To put it succinctly, that would guarantee that either Trump or Hillary wins the election...depending on which party controls 26 of the 50 delegations. The only 3 candidate that can even be on the House ballot are the 3 highest electoral vote getters. At that point, each delegation will vote party line...and the one with 26 wins. If, one or two GOP delegations broke away and went for French...than Hillary wins, because the Dems will not split their delegations. So throwing things to the House achieves NONE of the aims of supposed conservatives. Unless, that is, their real and only goal is to elect Hillary over Trump. In which case, just drop the facade and go join her campaign.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump's going down.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

You don't, apparently, understand how it works if the election is thrown into the House. To put it succinctly, that would guarantee that either Trump or Hillary wins the election...depending on which party controls 26 of the 50 delegations. The only 3 candidate that can even be on the House ballot are the 3 highest electoral vote getters. At that point, each delegation will vote party line...and the one with 26 wins. If, one or two GOP delegations broke away and went for French...than Hillary wins, because the Dems will not split their delegations. So throwing things to the House achieves NONE of the aims of supposed conservatives. Unless, that is, their real and only goal is to elect Hillary over Trump. In which case, just drop the facade and go join her campaign.

Yes but each delegation is determined by majority vote within the delegation, so plurality problems like vote-splitting do not apply. Please read my post and absorb it. Thank you.

[geronl]

Trump supporters are as vile and crude as one could imagine.

David French has every right to run as an independent.

[Mesaclone]

Zero chance comes the words from a trump mouthpiece.... Absurd, you say...   ludricous... .....These words from those that think trump will make America Great Again? I think I will wait and see as the public evaluates who this David French guy is and what he represents versus the 2 equally corrupt dangerous candidates we have right now.

Attempts at personal insult aside, you make no argument. Of COURSE you will wait and then back this guy...you were going to vote for anyone but Trump regardless. That's the NeverTrump thing. But nobody else is going to jump on that bandwagon of idiocy. Even so, the "zero chance" calculation isn't an attempt at measuring popular support for any of the candidates, its imply stating how a House decided election goes. Mr. French is not the issue, like many Americans he is most certainly a decent guy with reasonable views. But Bill Kristoo doesn't get to pick a puppet of his liking and pretend he's a legitimate candidate...well, he can try...but nobody outside the NeverTrump core is going to buy into that kind of baloney. More importantly, in a "House" election, the parties are not going to abandon their nominees in favor of Bill Kristol...so the end result is a party line vote of House delegations, which makes this whole shenanigan pointless.

[geronl]

Hopefully he can get on the ballot for November in enough states, we definitely need at least one conservative on there in November.

[Mesaclone]

Yes but each delegation is determined by majority vote within the delegation, so plurality problems like vote-splitting do not apply. Please read my post and absorb it. Thank you.

That is my point. Each state with a majority of GOP members will vote as a bloc for the GOP nominee. Period. Likewise for the Dem states. Thus you will simply have a party line vote of house delegations...which means nothing changes, its Hillary or Trump. Read and absorb that.

[WAC]

Hopefully he can get on the ballot for November in enough states, we definitely need at least one conservative on there in November.

French spoke at a college graduation and I was moved by what he wrote...he spared no punches in making clear "reality" to those students....didn't put them on a pedestal either though of course he honored their graduation. This does speak alot of the man....his head's far more stable than the two running now!...Don't know if he can get a ground swell going strong enough to push out Trump.....I think it's well past that time unless there's a strong marketing machine he can get behind him....I think it's too late in too many ways but you can't tell what happens at convention.


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/378157/how-live-life-privilege-david-french

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

That is my point. Each state with a majority of GOP members will vote as a bloc for the GOP nominee. Period. Likewise for the Dem states. Thus you will simply have a party line vote of house delegations...which means nothing changes, its Hillary or Trump. Read and absorb that.

COngressional GOP will agree with my analysis and vote accordingly. I will agree there are a lot of aspects to consider if they vote for someone other than Trump, but I don't think the prospect of Trump as President will sit well with any of them.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Hopefully he can get on the ballot for November in enough states, we definitely need at least one conservative on there in November.

There's more than one? 

[WAC]

Zero chance the GOP delegations fail to vote for the GOP nominee...they'll know that if they split at all Hillary will win. So the chance of Trump not winning a House election at that point would be zero. Not a longshot. Zero, because there is no chance of flipping 26 state delegations to some unknown pupped of Bill Kristol...who likely is a perfectly nice guy, but a puppet nonetheless. Its absurd, and I think you know that.

Your statements would hold some degree of water were this election standard rules of operation....it isn't.... nor does it look like the general will be either. Certainly stranger things have happened throughout  such as the last man standing of our candidates was the least fit for the office............but here we are with many seriously looking for another option other than Trump or Hillary.....especially since Hilary isn't an option.

[Right_in_Virginia]

Trump supporters are as vile and crude as one could imagine.

We are not.  Why not climb out of the basement and join us for a cup of coffee?  We're quite a likable, intelligent group.   

[Right_in_Virginia]

So, basically, you are saying that you prefer Hillary Clinton to the GOP nominee. Why are you in the GOP briefing room? Wouldn't DU be more appropriate?

@Poser

 :thumbsup2: :thumbsup2: :thumbsup2:

[Right_in_Virginia]

Your statements would hold some degree of water were this election standard rules of operation....it isn't....

How have the rules changed, @WAC?

[WAC]

So, basically, you are saying that you prefer Hillary Clinton to the GOP nominee. Why are you in the GOP briefing room? Wouldn't DU be more appropriate?

The 'no vote for Trump means Hillary' jargon  has been debunked pretty much.....besides there's no guarantee she gets it....rumors have it Biden will 'suddenly' have to take the mantel and will run with the Indian gal...LOL....which is just as much comedy as what's in the loop now.   

Anything is possible in this election along the way as Trump would not be seating currently where he is if that weren't true. ....and that seat may prove to be as unstable as he is. ...which isn't hard for any to see.

[WAC]

How have the rules changed, @WAC?

I think you know what I mean.....

[Victoria33]

Very interesting.

The objective is for French to win at least one state, which I think would be Utah, thereby keeping Trump/Hillary from getting enough electoral votes.  That sends the election to the House of Representatives and any Republican they would put in office would be better than mentally disturbed Trump or Hillary.

If French runs, I am voting for him.

[jmyrlefuller]

If the election were thrown to the House, Trump would be a lock. The procedure limits House delegations to ONLY vote for the top 3 electoral vote getters in the general election. They cannot toss in a Biden or a Romney and go that direction...so they will still be locked into voting for Trump, Hillary and whatever 3rd party person who won a few electoral votes. The candidate with, say, 12 electoral votes is not going to win the election when you have state delegations that consist of Dems and Repubs exclusively...its simply impossible. So it will fall back to 50 votes cast by 50 state delegations  for either Hillary or Trump. As I expect the GOP to have the House still...its mathematically likely they will have the majority of state delegations under their control and so will elect the GOP nominee.

So even if this all went according to plan...and its honestly ludicrous to even consider it as a realistic possibility...the end result is a Trump presidency.

Wrong.

Given the choice of conscience, I doubt that enough Republican delegations are going to vote for Donald Trump if given the choice between him and a LOYAL Republican. This is where partisan politics, which is supposedly giving him the advantage, is going to backfire on him.