Author Topic: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats  (Read 7960 times)

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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2016, 05:28:38 pm »
Public consumption polls generally reflect what the people who pay for them want them to reflect!

Donald J. Trump is a LOON unworthy of ANY public office much less the presidency!  And that is not based on any poll! It's based on verifiable FACT!

So the polls showing that the population in general might possibly agree with that assessment is just a coincidence?  How about the polls showing that Ted Cruz has net negatives not too dissimilar to Trump's?  Can we draw any inference from those polls?
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Offline Bigun

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2016, 05:29:57 pm »
So the polls showing that the population in general might possibly agree with that assessment is just a coincidence?  How about the polls showing that Ted Cruz has net negatives not too dissimilar to Trump's?  Can we draw any inference from those polls?

No! Not really! And certainly not now!
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Offline EC

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2016, 06:12:21 pm »
The polls are skewed. Let's unskew them.

Where and when have I heard THAT before. Oh yeah - 2012. 2008. 2004. 2000.
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Offline ScottinVA

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2016, 06:50:37 pm »
http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/08/tech-ceos-meet-secretly-with-gop-leaders-to-stop-trump/

Push polls owned by the left are still push polls. Nothing objective i.e turn out, enthusiasm. number of small donors etc supports such a poll that also pushes the democrat party's talking points. When 70 percent of all Americans agree with Trump on illegals, Muslims, economy and Nationalism.

Horsecrap.  There is NO data backing up that kind of claim.  And please.. those repeated comparisons of Trump to Reagan.. the dynamics could not be more different between 1980 and now.  Further.. Trump is no Reagan... not anywhere close.

Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2016, 06:53:20 pm »
So the Polls in North Korea, former USSR, Nazi Germany etc were all legit too.... Several of the same polling companies here work in dictatorships around the globe and many of them list their ability to manipulate as a selling point to hire them.

So which totalitarian government are all of these independent polling companies working for these days? 
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Online Right_in_Virginia

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #30 on: May 08, 2016, 06:55:01 pm »
Quote
Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats 


Well, here's some news the anti-Trump folks can embrace and celebrate after such a tough week. 

Offline Mechanicos

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Offline EC

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #32 on: May 08, 2016, 07:00:10 pm »
Daily-effing-kos? And you bitching about source bias?
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Offline Mechanicos

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #33 on: May 08, 2016, 07:01:08 pm »
So which totalitarian government are all of these independent polling companies working for these days?
Search terms "polling companies that manipulate data"  one of the articles that popped up.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-26/news/47705569_1_opinion-poll-public-opinion-sting-operation
Trump is for America First.
"Crooked Hillary Clinton is the Secretary of the Status Quo – and wherever Hillary Clinton goes, corruption and scandal follow." D. Trump 7/11/16

Did you know that the word ‘gullible’ is not in the dictionary?

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Offline Mechanicos

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #34 on: May 08, 2016, 07:02:45 pm »
Daily-effing-kos? And you bitching about source bias?
Next time do your own googling so you cannot play the liberal attack the messenger.
Heres one search string, so you can beat your head against the wall all you want'
"polling companies that manipulate data"
Trump is for America First.
"Crooked Hillary Clinton is the Secretary of the Status Quo – and wherever Hillary Clinton goes, corruption and scandal follow." D. Trump 7/11/16

Did you know that the word ‘gullible’ is not in the dictionary?

Isaiah 54:17

Offline Luis Gonzalez

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #35 on: May 08, 2016, 07:16:02 pm »
Come November, when these polls are proven to be correct, and when that gap that's existed all year comes to fruition and Clinton wins the election, Trump supporters will immediately turn and blame #NeverTrump for the loss, conveniently forgetting all these polls and that what #NeverTrump has been arguing all along, is that according to every poll, Trump can't beat Hillary.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 07:16:53 pm by Luis Gonzalez »
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Offline EC

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #36 on: May 08, 2016, 07:28:09 pm »
Next time do your own googling so you cannot play the liberal attack the messenger.
Heres one search string, so you can beat your head against the wall all you want'
"polling companies that manipulate data"

Now we're getting somewhere. You admitted you are Liberal.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,205623.msg871504.html#msg871504
Quote
Any article from the unethical Mark Levin should contain the disclaimer he attacks Trump for money.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,205616.msg871287.html#msg871287
Quote
Erickson the Paid #neverTrump Agitprop spewer.

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,205616.msg871272.html#msg871272
Quote
You posted a Think Progress Soros article recently. Hypocrite much?

http://www.gopbriefingroom.com/index.php/topic,205592.msg871177.html#msg871177
Quote
Several things show its a garbage poll.
1 Its CBS, they have zero credibility.

Those are just from today.

Pro-tip here: Respect is earned. You fail at that. I won't suggest you go back to your day job of hounding #nevertrumps at FR, but it's more your speed than actual discussion.
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #37 on: May 08, 2016, 07:39:18 pm »
The polls are skewed. Let's unskew them.

Where and when have I heard THAT before. Oh yeah - 2012. 2008. 2004. 2000.

Your comment made me reflect upon my own observations about polls during the last election. Analyzing polling data is something I know a thing about, having written a thesis on the subject in my graduate days. Most recently, in 2012, I noted on numerous occasions as to how many "prestige" polling organizations appeared to be underestimating Republican voters in their samples, often using somewhere between 27% and 30% as a target (after normative adjustments).

My thought at the time was that they were under-counting GOP voters by five percent or so, based upon historical Presidential electoral trends, and thus giving Obama a seeming and I thought, undeserved advantage.

It turned out that they were right, and I was wrong. Why? Because Republican "likely" voters had in fact shrunken as a group, in part having shed their numbers to the Independent category, and also because a decreasing number of registered GOP voters were actually "likely" to turn out on election day - a trend that seems to have begun in 2004, and has continued to this day, as far as I can tell.

Democrats, on the other hand, benefited from having a candidate that uniquely generated instantaneous and almost unanimous support from a core Democrat constituency - blacks, of course. But they also effectively leveraged superior enrollment and ground-level organization efforts to get their voters to the polls, including social media targeting, phone banks, enrollment drives, door-to-door canvassing, bus and car rides, and inducements of various kinds, including cash and other... "things" that have appeared in anecdotal accounts, but which I happen to believe. Cheap wine is still wine, after all. Was there cheating involved? Certainly. You can't get 104% turnout in certain precincts any other way.

But the harsh reality remains for Republicans: they are a minority party, and their dependable voters - including many nominal independents - are shrinking in number.

While it may still be true that Success has a thousand fathers and Failure is an orphan, the baby still got there somehow, and it is incumbent upon whoever may be said to compose today's Republican leadership to take responsibility for it.
       
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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #38 on: May 08, 2016, 07:41:12 pm »
Search terms "polling companies that manipulate data"  one of the articles that popped up.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-02-26/news/47705569_1_opinion-poll-public-opinion-sting-operation

The companies listed as well as the article are from India.  So I'm still trying to understand if all the polls showing Trump beating his rivals are good ones as he campaigns on, why are all the ones showing him in a negative light bad?  Let me ask you this.  Do you honestly believe he is actually seen in a good light by most Americans?  If so, how about Hillary?  The same polls are showing her with net negatives too.
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Offline sinkspur

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #39 on: May 08, 2016, 07:52:50 pm »
So the Polls in North Korea, former USSR, Nazi Germany etc were all legit too.... Several of the same polling companies here work in dictatorships around the globe and many of them list their ability to manipulate as a selling point to hire them.

When presented with an argument you can't answer, you, like your boy Trump, just jump to something entirely unrelated, as if it means anything.

I guess I'm going to have to put you on ignore too.  You're making my head hurt.
« Last Edit: May 08, 2016, 07:53:12 pm by sinkspur »
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Offline Mechanicos

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #40 on: May 08, 2016, 07:54:59 pm »
Now we're getting somewhere. You admitted you are Liberal.

Those are just from today.

Pro-tip here: Respect is earned. You fail at that. I won't suggest you go back to your day job of hounding #nevertrumps at FR, but it's more your speed than actual discussion.
Just because I expose the Fact #neverTrump is a fake operation run by far Left Billionaires and Establishment who pay for manufactured authority does not in anyway make me a liberal or discredit me.

When the #neverTrump people can actually refute the Facts I have posted then get back to me, until then any insults against me like the ones you tried here I take as a sign of your surrender.
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Did you know that the word ‘gullible’ is not in the dictionary?

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Offline MACVSOG68

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #41 on: May 08, 2016, 08:08:02 pm »
Your comment made me reflect upon my own observations about polls during the last election. Analyzing polling data is something I know a thing about, having written a thesis on the subject in my graduate days. Most recently, in 2012, I noted on numerous occasions as to how many "prestige" polling organizations appeared to be underestimating Republican voters in their samples, often using somewhere between 27% and 30% as a target (after normative adjustments).

My thought at the time was that they were under-counting GOP voters by five percent or so, based upon historical Presidential electoral trends, and thus giving Obama a seeming and I thought, undeserved advantage.

It turned out that they were right, and I was wrong. Why? Because Republican "likely" voters had in fact shrunken as a group, in part having shed their numbers to the Independent category, and also because a decreasing number of registered GOP voters were actually "likely" to turn out on election day - a trend that seems to have begun in 2004, and has continued to this day, as far as I can tell.

Democrats, on the other hand, benefited from having a candidate that uniquely generated instantaneous and almost unanimous support from a core Democrat constituency - blacks, of course. But they also effectively leveraged superior enrollment and ground-level organization efforts to get their voters to the polls, including social media targeting, phone banks, enrollment drives, door-to-door canvassing, bus and car rides, and inducements of various kinds, including cash and other... "things" that have appeared in anecdotal accounts, but which I happen to believe. Cheap wine is still wine, after all. Was there cheating involved? Certainly. You can't get 104% turnout in certain precincts any other way.

But the harsh reality remains for Republicans: they are a minority party, and their dependable voters - including many nominal independents - are shrinking in number.

While it may still be true that Success has a thousand fathers and Failure is an orphan, the baby still got there somehow, and it is incumbent upon whoever may be said to compose today's Republican leadership to take responsibility for it.
       

Interesting piece, especially the conclusion in bold.  Democrats are also decreasing in number.  And it is mostly attributable to the growth of independents. 

Self identified conservatives are still the largest of the three groups though the number of self-described liberals is increasing.  The problem with conservatives is they are decreasing and have been for four years.  Still conservatives and moderates together outnumber liberals by 3 to 1, an advantage that didn't seem to help in the past two elections and may not this November.   Only 9 percent call themselves very conservative, while only 6 percent consider themselves very liberal. 

But within the Democrat Party the liberal wing has risen substantially since 2011 at the expense of the conservative and moderate segments.  Conservatives within the Republican Party still have the lion's share, but that has also decreased somewhat in recent years, perhaps because the number of conservatives among independents is decreasing.

Then again, maybe it's all being controlled by North Korea... :laugh:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188129/conservatives-hang-ideology-lead-thread.aspx
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Offline Chosen Daughter

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #42 on: May 08, 2016, 08:30:05 pm »




Romney/Ryan Wouldn't be GOP Salvation Against Clinton

PPP's newest national poll finds that Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan wouldn't exactly be the solution to the GOP's Donald Trump problem, with Romney doing even worse head to head against Hillary Clinton than Trump does.

Clinton (48/41) and Bernie Sanders (48/40) each lead Trump by solid margins, and have more modest leads over Ted Cruz as well (45/42 for Clinton, 48/41 for Sanders). Clinton (45/41) and Sanders (44/41) would each trail John Kasich. We find that a generic Democrat would lead a generic Republican for President 45/43 so when it comes to match ups against Clinton, Cruz essentially is the generic Republican with Trump being 5 points worse and Kasich being 6 points better. Much is made of Trump's unpopularity nationally and he certainly is unpopular- a 29/63 favorability rating- but Cruz isn't much better off at 30/58. Kasich's 41/39 rating makes him the only candidate in either party on positive ground.

There's been a lot of talk about Republicans possibly nominating Romney or Ryan at a contested convention, but both under perform a generic Republican candidate. Romney is incredibly unpopular nationally now- his 23/65 favorability rating is even worse than the 29/63 Trump comes in at. Clinton (45/32) and Sanders (48/31) each lead Romney by double digit margins. Ryan would trail Clinton 44/39 and Sanders 45/38, numbers not terribly dissimilar to how Trump polls against each of them.  It's not clear Romney or Ryan would do much to save the party this year.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/mitt-romney/

So if people think Romney is the answer think again.
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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #43 on: May 08, 2016, 08:31:51 pm »
Just because I expose the Fact #neverTrump is a fake operation run by far Left Billionaires and Establishment who pay for manufactured authority does not in anyway make me a liberal or discredit me.

When the #neverTrump people can actually refute the Facts I have posted then get back to me, until then any insults against me like the ones you tried here I take as a sign of your surrender.
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Offline Chosen Daughter

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #44 on: May 08, 2016, 08:43:03 pm »
Romney was not the answer in 2012 and he is not the answer today.  He is welcome to help support a good candidate.  it isn't him.

 :amen:  Has to be a real Conservative.  One that actually will work for the American people to restore jobs and security on our border.
AG William Barr: "I'm recused from that matter because one of the law firms that represented Epstein long ago was a firm that I subsequently joined for a period of time."

Alexander Acosta Labor Secretary resigned under pressure concerning his "sweetheart deal" with Jeffrey Epstein.  He was under consideration for AG after Sessions was removed, but was forced to resign instead.

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #45 on: May 08, 2016, 08:43:49 pm »
If we surrender, will you shut up and go away?

Is it a requirement of this forum that every poster must genuflect to the irrational anti/neverTrumps??

Offline musiclady

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #46 on: May 08, 2016, 08:45:49 pm »
It is irrelevant if the polls are individually accurate or not.  Look around you.  Listen.  The general truth of that poll is all around you if you have the ears to hear and the honesty to admit it.  This is what we've been saying about a Trump candidacy all along.  Frankly, if I were to poll my small circle of friends and family on those questions, Trump would do even worse.

You bought this rotten, vicious dog.  Now you are responsible for picking up his poop.  You pay for the damage he does.  You have to give him his rabies shots.   You keep him chained up.   You own the outcome.  I wash my hands of it.

Good analogy, well stated.

In my small circle of friends and family, Trump has 100% disapproval.  All ages, all political categories, both genders....

I know it's anecdotal, but I don't think our experiences are unique.

This guy is deeply disliked across the spectrum.  The only ones who can stomach him are those who are, for some bizarre reason, in love with him.
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Offline andy58-in-nh

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2016, 08:49:49 pm »
Interesting piece, especially the conclusion in bold.  Democrats are also decreasing in number.  And it is mostly attributable to the growth of independents. 

Self identified conservatives are still the largest of the three groups though the number of self-described liberals is increasing.  The problem with conservatives is they are decreasing and have been for four years.  Still conservatives and moderates together outnumber liberals by 3 to 1, an advantage that didn't seem to help in the past two elections and may not this November.   Only 9 percent call themselves very conservative, while only 6 percent consider themselves very liberal. 

But within the Democrat Party the liberal wing has risen substantially since 2011 at the expense of the conservative and moderate segments.  Conservatives within the Republican Party still have the lion's share, but that has also decreased somewhat in recent years, perhaps because the number of conservatives among independents is decreasing.

Then again, maybe it's all being controlled by North Korea... :laugh:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188129/conservatives-hang-ideology-lead-thread.aspx
I don't know. That Kim-Jong Un is a devious little fellow. In fact, he might be watching us right now...



More to your point, though... I think we have two rather significant challenges.

One is that the GOP lacks a coherent governing philosophy and a coherent governing leader. I like Ted Cruz a whole bunch, but he has his limitations as a candidate, as we've seen.

The bigger and more lasting challenge is the Culture: it is dominated by leftists at every turn - academia, the arts, the government, and Hollywood - they own it.  For what seems like forever, Republicans have acted like that didn't matter. Well... it does.

A little counterrevolution every now and then is a good thing. And it's just about time we had one. 
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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #48 on: May 08, 2016, 08:50:27 pm »
Is it a requirement of this forum that every poster must genuflect to the irrational anti/neverTrumps??

Do you really think that helps matters here.
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Offline roamer_1

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Re: Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats
« Reply #49 on: May 08, 2016, 08:51:15 pm »
No but I can think of a couple right off the top of my head that he can take out of the Republican column. Utah and Montana..

And probably everything between them.