Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats

[mystery-ak]

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2016/05/07/ripple-effect-trumps-pushes-11-states-to-the-democrats-n2159255

Ripple Effect: Trumps Pushes 11 States Toward The Democrats

Matt Vespa
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Posted: May 07, 2016 8:00 PM

Donald Trump will start his 2016 battle against Hillary Clinton by trailing her by double-digits in the polls and a projected Electoral College wipeout thus far. Now that he’s the presumptive nominee, the Cook Political Report had moved 11 states towards the Democrats (the Hill):

“Although we remain convinced that Hillary Clinton is very vulnerable and would probably lose to most other Republicans, Donald Trump's historic unpopularity with wide swaths of the electorate — women, millennials, independents and Latinos — make him the initial November underdog.”

Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin were all shifted from toss-up states to leaning Democratic. The “solid Republican” states Missouri and Indiana were downgraded to “likely Republican.” New Mexico is now solidly Democratic, and North Carolina is a toss-up after leaning Republican.

continued

[MACVSOG68]

Not much has changed.  Of all the candidates, Trump had the deepest hole to dig out of.  Statesmanship-like is antithetical to his personality, but something he's going to have to learn if he's to have any chance.  They say the VP pick isn't all that important, but his is going to have to be good enough to help with the digging. 

[sinkspur]

Can anyone think of a single state that Trump could take out of the Democrat column if he loses all these swing states?

[montanajoe]

Can anyone think of a single state that Trump could take out of the Democrat column if he loses all these swing states?

No but I can think of a couple right off the top of my head that he can take out of the Republican column. Utah and Montana..

[Mechanicos]

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/08/tech-ceos-meet-secretly-with-gop-leaders-to-stop-trump/

Push polls owned by the left are still push polls. Nothing objective i.e turn out, enthusiasm. number of small donors etc supports such a poll that also pushes the democrat party's talking points. When 70 percent of all Americans agree with Trump on illegals, Muslims, economy and Nationalism this type of agitprop is nothing more than manipulation for the haters.

Odds are the polls will act just like they did for Regan, always losing badly until he won.

oh, apply common sense to this, It says the ones who could not beat Trump on the Republican side can beat Hillary.

[geronl]

Not only that, look at the down-ballot races in the primaries

The Trump-effect is squashing the TEA Party candidates in the primary

[andy58-in-nh]

Can anyone think of a single state that Trump could take out of the Democrat column if he loses all these swing states?

I think he might have an outside shot at Schleswig-Holstein, but only because he's got a northern Germanic surname.

[MACVSOG68]

http://www.breitbart.com/tech/2016/03/08/tech-ceos-meet-secretly-with-gop-leaders-to-stop-trump/

Push polls owned by the left are still push polls. Nothing objective i.e turn out, enthusiasm. number of small donors etc supports such a poll that also pushes the democrat party's talking points. When 70 percent of all Americans agree with Trump on illegals, Muslims, economy and Nationalism this type of agitprop is nothing more than manipulation for the haters.

Odds are the polls will act just like they did for Regan, always losing badly until he won.

oh, apply common sense to this, It says the ones who could not beat Trump on the Republican side can beat Hillary.

I'm not sure how a question framed as "Who do you favor Trump or Clinton" is a push poll.  And almost every one has Hillary beating him, often by double digits.  As for why some candidates can beat Hillary in the GE but not Trump in the primary, it's pretty easy to see it's a different sampling group.  Once the GE really kicks off, we should see some narrowing, but I still see Trump as having a hell of a hole to climb out of.

[Mechanicos]

I'm not sure how a question framed as "Who do you favor Trump or Clinton" is a push poll.  And almost every one has Hillary beating him, often by double digits.  As for why some candidates can beat Hillary in the GE but not Trump in the primary, it's pretty easy to see it's a different sampling group.  Once the GE really kicks off, we should see some narrowing, but I still see Trump as having a hell of a hole to climb out of.

Several things show its a garbage poll.
1 Its CBS, they have zero credibility.
2. The pump up the Democrat when not one objective fact backs it.
3. They push the Democrat talking points verbatim.
4 The defy common sense by saying GOP who performed so badly with their base in actual voting could do better than the top vote winner in the General.

[MACVSOG68]

Several things show its a garbage poll.
1 Its CBS, they have zero credibility.
2. The pump up the Democrat when not one objective fact backs it.
3. They push the Democrat talking points verbatim.
4 The defy common sense by saying GOP who performed so badly with their base in actual voting could do better than the top vote winner in the General.

Yet that poll is consistent with numerous polls for the past several months.  Trump, Cruz and Clinton all have serious net negatives.  One recent poll showed the single biggest reason people would vote for Trump is to beat Hillary.  That would be my reason also, and I know a few more right here.  And maybe the likeability negatives for Trump will change, but again maybe he needs to start that process himself.

[Mechanicos]

Ans all from the same sources most with the same fundamental flaws, talking points and agenda. Repeating a lie which is what they are doing is not working this time around obviously.

[MACVSOG68]

Ans all from the same sources most with the same fundamental flaws, talking points and agenda. Repeating a lie which is what they are doing is not working this time around obviously.

I know Trump loves touting the polls.  But help me out.  Are the only good polls the ones that show results he likes?

[Mechanicos]

I know Trump loves touting the polls.  But help me out.  Are the only good polls the ones that show results he likes?

Per Gallop none of the Political polls are valid anymore. I do not believe in polls. In an honors college political science class we learned that the free-to-the-public Polls are tools of manipulation - they do not measure anything. They will put out some good data to keep people watching them but their business plan makes money by delivering results manipulating low information populations. Remember how they told us the Homosexual agenda was accepted by most people just before 32 states shot it down by overwhelming numbers? Yet here we are with Big ones like Gallop saying they are not accurate but political pundits still live and die by them.

[sinkspur]

Several things show its a garbage poll.
1 Its CBS, they have zero credibility.
2. The pump up the Democrat when not one objective fact backs it.
3. They push the Democrat talking points verbatim.
4 The defy common sense by saying GOP who performed so badly with their base in actual voting could do better than the top vote winner in the General.

Wishful thinking.  This poll is in line with 69 of the last 70 polls taken.

[sinkspur]

Per Gallop none of the Political polls are valid anymore. I do not believe in polls. In an honors college political science class we learned that the free-to-the-public Polls are tools of manipulation - they do not measure anything. They will put out some good data to keep people watching them but their business plan makes money by delivering results manipulating low information populations. Remember how they told us the Homosexual agenda was accepted by most people just before 32 states shot it down by overwhelming numbers? Yet here we are with Big ones like Gallop saying they are not accurate but political pundits still live and die by them.

Then why did Trump spend the entire primary season pimping polls favoring himself?  Gallup doesn't poll the presidential races any longer because they were absolutely the most unreliable in 2012.

[andy58-in-nh]

Ans all from the same sources most with the same fundamental flaws, talking points and agenda. Repeating a lie which is what they are doing is not working this time around obviously.

Polling flaws are categorical and methodological, not overtly political.

Margins of error are greatly reduced when one considers results obtained by multiple methodologies over time. Thus, when virtually every reputable poll shows Donald Trump getting his clock cleaned by the Wicked Witch of Westchester, it is not likely the result of flawed analysis. The idea that there is some vast underground tsunami of disgruntled voters who will rise up on Election Day to wash away the old electoral landscape is a fanciful one, a wishful dream.   

In truth, the flaws lie with the candidate, not with the polls. Trump has both the time and resources to correct this situation; the question is: will he?

[Mechanicos]

Then why did Trump spend the entire primary season pimping polls favoring himself?  Gallup doesn't poll the presidential races any longer because they were absolutely the most unreliable in 2012.

Same reason I do, because people like you still believe in them and they work on you.

[sinkspur]

Same reason I do, because people like you still believe in them and they work on you.

They work on me because they're correct.

And they work on you because you can't let it go.

[MACVSOG68]

Per Gallop none of the Political polls are valid anymore. I do not believe in polls. In an honors college political science class we learned that the free-to-the-public Polls are tools of manipulation - they do not measure anything. They will put out some good data to keep people watching them but their business plan makes money by delivering results manipulating low information populations. Remember how they told us the Homosexual agenda was accepted by most people just before 32 states shot it down by overwhelming numbers? Yet here we are with Big ones like Gallop saying they are not accurate but political pundits still live and die by them.

They're valid to the extent of the sampling error, the confidence level, the population identified and the wording of the question.  Obviously in a political campaign, polls change rapidly.  The more polls on an issue however, the more valid one's acceptance or non-acceptance.  Bush's polling was so-so when he started, and then began crumbling until the net negatives were in the 20 percent range by every poll out there.  The polling companies had no relationship with each other.  How did they all show the same thing?  Cruz was the same, and so is Trump along with Clinton.  Are all the polls somehow connected to a central media control system?

[Mechanicos]

They work on me because they're correct.

And they work on you because you can't let it go.

Nope they have no effect on me since I know who what when why and how polls like them are done and who pays for them.

Little hint. A poll can be made to say anything by selecting demographics by zip code, purchase history, time of day, etc.
Did you know the choice of your Spaghetti Sauce can predict your voting preference?  And boy do they have detailed data bases on populations by zip code/demographics now. 

[Mechanicos]

They're valid to the extent of the sampling error, the confidence level, the population identified and the wording of the question.  Obviously in a political campaign, polls change rapidly.  The more polls on an issue however, the more valid one's acceptance or non-acceptance.  Bush's polling was so-so when he started, and then began crumbling until the net negatives were in the 20 percent range by every poll out there.  The polling companies had no relationship with each other.  How did they all show the same thing?  Cruz was the same, and so is Trump along with Clinton.  Are all the polls somehow connected to a central media control system?

Obviously not. Unless they show where they targeted their calls such as urban vs rural. Black vs white zip codes, etc their claim of who they called is deceptive since to make it lean heavy democrat all they need to do is call heavy voting democrat zip codes around the country and call it a national poll even when its targeted to get the results they are being paid for.

[sinkspur]

Nope they have no effect on me since I know who what when why and how polls like them are done and who pays for them.

Little hint. A poll can be made to say anything by selecting demographics by zip code, purchase history, time of day, etc.
Did you know the choice of your Spaghetti Sauce can predict your voting preference?  And boy do they have detailed data bases on populations by zip code/demographics now.

You display an astonishing lack of knowledge about the polling industry.  If polls were all rigged (like the AMP poll that showed Nehlen beating Ryan in a primary), pollsters would go out of business.  Nobody could rely on them.

No, polls are mostly correct, especially when a convergence of all polls show the same thing.  That should make you very nervous.

[Bigun]

Public consumption polls generally reflect what the people who pay for them want them to reflect!

Donald J. Trump is a LOON unworthy of ANY public office much less the presidency!  And that is not based on any poll! It's based on verifiable FACT!

[MACVSOG68]

Obviously not. Unless they show where they targeted their calls such as urban vs rural. Black vs white zip codes, etc their claim of who they called is deceptive since to make it lean heavy democrat all they need to do is call heavy voting democrat zip codes around the country and call it a national poll even when its targeted to get the results they are being paid for.

In the absence of any other rational indicators, polls from independent companies should be considered by candidates, and we know Trump does look at them, because he continually touted them when they favored him over his competitors throughout this primary season.  And if these companies independent of each other are all somehow trying to slant the polls against Trump, why are they also showing Hillary with net negatives? 

[Mechanicos]

You display an astonishing lack of knowledge about the polling industry.  If polls were all rigged (like the AMP poll that showed Nehlen beating Ryan in a primary), pollsters would go out of business.  Nobody could rely on them.

No, polls are mostly correct, especially when a convergence of all polls show the same thing.  That should make you very nervous.

So the Polls in North Korea, former USSR, Nazi Germany etc were all legit too.... Several of the same polling companies here work in dictatorships around the globe and many of them list their ability to manipulate as a selling point to hire them.