Donald Trump just hit a critical threshold for the GOP nomination — one that his opponents might not

[Carling]

This is for now.  As soon as the GOProg leadership meets in April, expect Rule 40 to be revised, if not completely eliminated.

The GOProgs will do anything to have HRC as president over Trump, even if it means changing the rules to allow an unpopular candidate.  At that point, Trump goes third party, and millions of Trump supporters, including myself, leave the GOP forever.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/03/15/donald-trump-just-hit-a-critical-threshold-for-the-gop-nomination-one-that-his-opponents-might-not/?tid=sm_tw

The Northern Marianas are a collection of 15 islands in the Pacific Ocean, located at about the focal point of the Pacific Rim. It's a United States territory, 179 square miles of land -- an area smaller than New York City -- that happens to jut out above the surface of the water. And on Tuesday morning, before you even woke up, it made Donald Trump the first man to qualify for the Republican presidential nomination.

See, in the Northern Marianas, Tuesday began 14 hours before it began on the East Coast. So its Super Threesday caucus was done overnight, and Trump won all nine delegates. In doing so, the Northern Marianas became the eighth state or territory in which Trump won a majority of the delegates. (The others: South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Hawaii and Mississippi.) And according to the rules of the Republican convention, a candidate must "demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination." No eight states, no nomination.

That's the fabled Rule 40, which governs how the nomination process works, down to the length of time allotted candidates who wish to speak to their nominations. The eight-state thing is in section B of the rule, and is a pretty high bar to meet. (The party’s rules count territories as states under Rule 1.) After all, it's not that Trump hasn't won at least eight states; he has. But only in eight (including the Marianas) does he have a majority of delegates. In the others he has won -- New Hampshire, Nevada, Arkansas, Vermont, Virginia, Kentucky, Louisiana and Michigan -- he has a plurality of delegates. Not good enough.

Notice that we've taken 16 states and territories out of play already. There are several more that other candidates have won with a majority of the delegates -- Texas (for Ted Cruz), Kansas (Cruz), Maine (Cruz), Puerto Rico (for Marco Rubio), Idaho (Cruz) and D.C. (Rubio) -- and more still that other candidates won, but didn't capture most delegates. Those are Iowa, Alaska and Oklahoma for Cruz and Minnesota for Rubio. Cruz needs four more and Rubio six more. (Oh and John Kasich, eight more.) And not many states are left.

n theory, then, Trump could be the only candidate to hit the bar before the July convention.

Of course, once the convention arrives, that doesn't really matter at all.

As former Republican National Committee counsel Ben Ginsberg noted during an appearance on MSNBC last week, Rule 40 is not a hard-and-fast rule for the convention. The convention will have a Rules Committee in which 112 representatives will battle over the final guidelines for eligibility to receive the nomination. Rule 40's eight-state boundary could become 25 states or two states. In 2012, in fact, the Rules Committee bumped it up from five to eight, which is why that's where it stands right now. (The rules document notes that it dates from the 2012 convention, with a few updates by the party.)

Think of it like an NFL game. As the clock runs out on the voting, we think we know the winner. But before a winner is announced, the referees get to discuss how the rules will be applied. Maybe they decide that what constitutes winning is "most yardage gained by passing" -- but that one of the team's quarterbacks is ineligible for consideration. It's a ridiculous example, but it's not entirely inaccurate: The Rules Committee could make the nomination rules into nearly anything they wish.

That's not terribly likely, of course, both because there's value in maintaining the integrity of the process for candidates and because any perception that the scales are being tipped away from Donald Trump probably would result in a very angry group of Trump supporters. But the rules can and probably will change to some degree.

None of this is meant as a slight on the importance of the Northern Marianas, of course. But, then, they're all asleep right now anyway.

[Longiron]

Need to get rid of the UNIPARTY and the RINOGOPe is the issue. TRUMP goes 3rd party the RNC is done. They party does not care if HILLARY is POTUS. They all keep their power and money at the expense of the rest of us. In fact that is the last stragety to stop TRUMP is make him go 3rd party and put HILLARY POTUS. One problem is the RINOGOPe is wrong again. If TRUMP goes 3 red party MASSES go with him and he will WIN. The UNIPARTY folks don't come back with the Perot BS. Different time and different stakes are in place now. TRUMP has the most Republicans except the leadershipand Donors. He has DEMS, Independents, Hispanics, blacks, Asians and America is pissed off at DC and want to do something about it. The silent majority rules like it or not.

[Carling]

No other comments on this article?

[alicewonders]

Thanks for the info Carling - I did not know what the "eight states" was in reference to.  Good for Trump!

[sinkspur]

Rule 40 will be eliminated.  The Rules Committee has said so.

One member of the committee has said this:

RNC Rules Comm. Member: Every Delegate At GOP Convention Not Bound On First Ballot

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/13/rnc-rules-comm-member-every-delegate-at-gop-convention-not-bound-on-first-ballot/#ixzz42zrMax7h

[GAJohnnie]

Yep the GOP is determined to go the way of the Whigs. Problem for them is they assume the state delegations are going to go to Cleveland and defy the will of the voters back home just because some screaming heads in DC want it.

 Very bad for your career back home that will be.

[Carling]

Rule 40 will be eliminated.  The Rules Committee has said so.

One member of the committee has said this:

RNC Rules Comm. Member: Every Delegate At GOP Convention Not Bound On First Ballot

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/03/13/rnc-rules-comm-member-every-delegate-at-gop-convention-not-bound-on-first-ballot/#ixzz42zrMax7h

Yes, I'm well aware that GOProg leadership is willing to destroy the party forever in order to keep Trump from the presidency.  Of course they are going to change the rules and force Trump to go third party.  I wish you guys would just join the Democrats and leave the GOP to people like me who actually care about their fellow citizens instead of their donors.

[GAJohnnie]

Going to be really interesting when the attack bots in the "conservative" media run into the reality that the State Delegations are not going to just do as DC demands.

Really think having whole state delegations walk out live on National TV is going be a winning optic for you GOP? What do you think is going to happen if you lose Congress because you are so emotional hysteric about Trump that you attempt  these sort of scumbag tactics?

Really think you can defy the voters in Cleveland and have them show up for you in Nov?

It has gotten so bad you can smell the desperation and panic on the GOPE bots these days.

[GAJohnnie]

The five stages, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance are a part of the framework that makes up our learning to live with the one we lost. They are tools to help us frame and identify what we may be feeling. But they are not stops on some linear timeline in grief.

This "Brokered Convention" nonsense is the bargaining stage.

[Carling]

The five stages, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance are a part of the framework that makes up our learning to live with the one we lost. They are tools to help us frame and identify what we may be feeling. But they are not stops on some linear timeline in grief.

This "Brokered Convention" nonsense is the bargaining stage.

Haha!  You're exactly right!  Too bad many posters here are still stuck at Stage Two, though.

[GAJohnnie]

Well as the quote points out, they are not linear. People bounce around in them

[Right_in_Virginia]

   

[GAJohnnie]

Change is met in three ways. There are the supporters, the neutrals and the resistors. The closer the resistors get to losing, the more frantically they cling to the status quo.

[aligncare]

Yes, I'm well aware that GOProg leadership is willing to destroy the party forever in order to keep Trump from the presidency.  Of course they are going to change the rules and force Trump to go third party.  I wish you guys would just join the Democrats and leave the GOP to people like me who actually care about their fellow citizens instead of their donors.

What's interesting about your comment is, where was the GOP establishment fighting Obama? In '08 in '12, and throughout each of those administrations. Where was the fight?

But now they're willing to blow it all up because Donald Trump was insulting to a candidate he was running against?

Ooh, call out the PC police.

[Carling]

What's interesting about your comment is, where was the GOP establishment fighting Obama? In '08 in '12, and throughout each of those administrations. Where was the fight?

But now they're willing to blow it all up because Donald Trump was insulting to a candidate he was running against?

Ooh, call out the PC police.

The Maverick was telling us all how Obama would make a good president, and Milquetoast Milt offered Obama a hand up from the canvas after knocking him down in the first debate instead of going for a submission hold and finishing him off for good.

Yeah the GOProgs sure are fighting the Democrats.   

[aligncare]

By the way, don't like Trump because of what he said? I've got a suggestion for you, don't vote for him.

Or you could come on every one these threads and -- without supporting one of your own -- you can trash those of us who are going to vote for him. Yeah! that's the ticket.

[Carling]

By the way, don't like Trump because of what he said? I've got a suggestion for you, don't vote for him.

Or you could come on every one these threads and -- without supporting one of your own -- you can trash those of us who are going to vote for him. Yeah! that's the ticket.

What I don't get is why the Dump Trumpers would want to even associate with bigoted and xenophobic racists such as you and me. 

[GAJohnnie]

Their PR firm isn't going to pay them to just sit around doing nothing all day. Got to earn their paychecks. 

[sinkspur]

By the way, don't like Trump because of what he said? I've got a suggestion for you, don't vote for him.

Or you could come on every one these threads and -- without supporting one of your own -- you can trash those of us who are going to vote for him. Yeah! that's the ticket.

Can't throw spitballs on the Trump Caucus. Gotta come on the main thread to do it.

It's OK to trash us over there, but you can't be poked at anywhere, amirite?

[Carling]

Can't throw spitballs on the Trump Caucus. Gotta come on the main thread to do it.

It's OK to trash us over there, but you can't be poked at anywhere, amirite?

Well you could always have your own safe zone in the Rubio Caucus.  Oh, wait....   

[sinkspur]

Well you could always have your own safe zone in the Rubio Caucus.  Oh, wait....   

Safe rooms are for, well, you know............

[Carling]

Safe rooms are for, well, you know............

I'm not posting in it, but I can understand why others who want to support their candidate without being called bigoted xenophobic racists in each thread would do so.

Calling anyone a p***y from behind a keyboard is actually a p***y move itself, isn't it?  I doubt you'd say that to my face, sinky.

[jmyrlefuller]

Anyway... back on topic...

All of this is moot if Trump can't get a majority of delegates overall. If he can't reach that mark, everything else—including Rule 40-B (which, I might add, was originally an issue that the Trump base complained about because they knew he can't get a majority without splitting the vote in most places)—goes out the window.

[sinkspur]

I'm not posting in it, but I can understand why others who want to support their candidate without being called bigoted xenophobic racists in each thread would do so.

Calling anyone a p***y from behind a keyboard is actually a p***y move itself, isn't it?  I doubt you'd say that to my face, sinky.

You don't believe in having safe rooms for kittens?  I do.  I have two and they're always safe.

If you're not posting in the Trump Caucus, don't be afraid of the kittens.

[Carling]

Anyway... back on topic...

All of this is moot if Trump can't get a majority of delegates overall. If he can't reach that mark, everything else—including Rule 40-B (which, I might add, was originally an issue that the Trump base complained about because they knew he can't get a majority without splitting the vote in most places)—goes out the window.

Where in the bylaws does it say this?  It's my understanding that winning a majority of delegates in 8 states is one of the current qualifiers, and will need to be changed next month.  If you have proof otherwise, please link it.