Trump Is Unelectable

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

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THETARRANCEGROUP
To: Our Principles PAC
From: Ed Goeas
Re: Does Donald Trump have a path to victory in November?
While the overwhelming focus, both within the Republican Party and throughout the media, is on the
primaries, as each week passes by questions are beginning to surface on what all this means for the
general election. With seventy percent (70%) of the delegates yet to be selected, the race for the
Republican nomination is far from over, and with Donald Trump receiving only a third of the popular
vote on Super Tuesday, there are still a majority of Republican voters that have not jumped on the
“Trump Train” as of yet.
The bottom line, however, is Donald Trump is the frontrunner, and looking toward the November
Election with Donald Trump as the Republican nominee is not only valid, but increasingly necessary.
Many of those who have looked forward to the general election walk away with some very real
questions about the electability of Donald Trump. In this memorandum, we set aside the broad
statements like “the Hispanics love me,” and take a look at the data within the very polls Donald
Trump is so fond of quoting.
Republicans Begin this Campaign with a Tougher Math Equation in the General Election
While not quite to the point of needing to “thread the needle,” Republicans definitely have a tougher
math problem to deal with the electoral vote count in the upcoming general election. The map below
illustrates the challenges that any Republican Presidential nominee will face, starting with states that
each party has won in every Presidential election over the last twenty years. In the race to 270
Electoral College votes, the Democrats begin with 246 Electoral College votes in their reliable
column. In contrast, Republicans begin with just 179 Electoral College votes in their reliable column.
The simple math is that Republicans need to win 91 of 113 Electoral College votes in the tossup/battleground
states while Democrats need to win just 24 of these Electoral College votes.
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• Democrats begin needing just 24 more Electoral College votes to win the Presidency.
o Just winning Florida or Virginia and North Carolina clinches a win for them.
• Republicans begin needing 91 more Electoral College votes to win the Presidency.
o Florida is a must win and the Republican Presidential candidate will need wins in the
Midwest, the new South, and the Mountain West.
• While victories in the individual states can be structured in a variety of ways, in looking at the
states in play, the one group that is likely to play a key role in determining victory or defeat are
the Hispanic voters in those states.
o Hispanic voters in Florida, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada have certainly played
a key role in every election for over a decade of voting.
o Increasingly Hispanic voters are playing a greater role in both North Carolina and
Virginia.
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Trump “Everyone Loves Me!”
Donald Trump is very fond of both citing polling numbers and talking about how “everyone loves
me,” a statement that if rated by Fact Checker would certainly receive “four Pinocchio’s.” One of the
advantages Donald Trump had coming into this election was his almost universal name awareness
with the entire American Electorate. However, that advantage was a double-edged sword, having
over ninety percent of voters holding an image of Donald Trump, but being upside down, with more
voters having an unfavorable impression rather than not. More to the point, as the campaign has
moved into high gear, Trump’s unfavorable are moving in the wrong direction.
According to the most recent CNN-ORC national poll:
• Sixty percent (60%) of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, compared to
Hillary Clinton at a fifty-five percent (55%) unfavorable rating.
• Donald Trump’s negative are over fifty percent (50%) with Men (52%), women (68%), White
Voters (52%), non-White voters (74%), every age cohort even seniors (50%), Independents
(62%), and every region of the country.
• Trump is right side up with many of the voter groups that are key to the Republican base, but
even there his negatives are somewhat problematic – White Evangelicals (40%), Tea Party
supporters (34%), and even Conservatives (40% unfavorable).
• More immediate and most concerning is almost one-third (32%) of Republicans hold an
unfavorable image of Donald Trump.
Another factor that has to be looked at for the general election is ability to connect to the voters, things
like “shares your values,” have been an extremely important connector with voters in past presidential
elections, and in 2008 “cares about people like me” was extremely important in Barack Obama’s
election victory. What exit polling in the Republican primaries has shown, even with Trump voters, is
that he is scoring very low with voters on “shares your values” hitting a low mark in the South
Carolina primary where only a quarter of the Trump voters felt he shared their values. Their focus was
much more on “Telling it like it is.”
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While there are not a lot of these “connector” questions with the general American electorate, there
are a few that give you some pause as we move beyond the Republican primary electorate.
According to the most recent FOX News national poll:
• Two-fifths of voters (40%) volunteer that Donald Trump is the candidate they would most
dread watching on television for the next four years. No other Republican candidate is even in
double digits on this measure.
• When voters are asked which Republican candidate is the worst role model for children today,
forty-nine percent (49%) of GOP voters name Donald Trump. He is named more than four
times as often as any other Republican candidate.
• Two-thirds (67%) of voters think Donald Trump does not have the temperament to serve
effectively as President.
Trump Also Has a Brand Problem, Even with GOP Voters
While Trump’s ability to successfully market the Trump name in the business world is legendary, his
efforts to sell the Trump brand are falling short – even with Republican voters. In business, if you
improve your market share by ten percent you are brilliant, in politics if you don’t gain fifty percent of
the market share you’re a loser.
The exit polling by CNN finds:
• More than forty percent of GOP primary voters in New Hampshire (46%), Alabama (42%),
Georgia (45%), and Virginia (54%) would not be satisfied if Donald Trump won the
Republican nomination.
• In South Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia, the top choice of who ran the most unfair
campaign was Trump.
The biggest concern is the thirty-five percent (35%) of Republicans in the most recent CNN/ORC
poll who said that they would never vote for Trump in the 2016 Election. While the Republican
National Committee has done a great deal since the 2012 election to close the “Technology Gap” and
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Republicans currently have an intensity advantage in the high single digits that will certainly help
drive Republican voters to the ballot box, what will happen with this third of the Republican vote
raises some huge questions. Will they set aside their personal feelings about Donald Trump and vote
for the Republican ticket? Will they vote for Hillary Clinton? Or, not liking either of the two
presidential choices, will they sit on their hands, and not vote in November.
There Appears to be a Huge Wall Being Built Between Donald Trump and the Non-Republican
Electorate
Trump’s claim that he can grow the support of the GOP is not supported by the current data. Yes,
turnout in the primaries and caucuses is up substantially, but appears to be driven as much by the
number of strong candidates/campaigns, and the anti-Trump vote, as it is driven by the candidacy of
Donald Trump. Again, Trump only received a third of the votes cast on Super Tuesday, and again a
third in last week’s elections. As importantly, with what little information is available, it looks the
“new” Republican Primary Voters that are participating are being drawn from Republican general
election voters, being pulled into the Republican primaries.
What the data shows, outside the Republican base electorate, like his high unfavorable rating, is not
encouraging.
According to the most recent CNN-ORC national poll:
• With women, Trump’s image rating is 29% favorable and 68% unfavorable (and an
unfavorable rating of 38% with Republican women), while Hillary Clinton’s is 52% favorable
and 44% unfavorable (and an 86% favorable rating with Democratic women). Hillary
certainly in a better position to go after swing female voters.
• The married white Republican women that are so much of the Republican base, and are
increasingly turning negative towards Donald Trump, may very well decide to sit out this
election and stay home.
• Currently in a Trump-Clinton matchup, Donald Trump is losing by almost a two to one
margin (62% Clinton-34% Trump), a Gender Gap greater than anything we have seen, even in
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the worst of election years for the GOP. In 2012 that number was Obama / Romney with
56/44 respectively.
• With Independent voters Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have very similar image ratings –
Trump 34-62% favorable/unfavorable and Clinton 33-63% favorable – but when given a
choice between two candidates they don’t like, Clinton comes out on top 48% to 44%.
Trump losing on a Trump-Clinton Matchup is not unique to the CNN-ORC national Poll:
• While Donald Trump started out the primary campaign with a lead in the polls and has pretty
much held that lead throughout the fall and early primary season, that has not been the case in
the general election matchups. In fact of the forty-nine polls that looked at a general election
matchup, Trump has only lead on five, and is moving in the wrong direction.
• Over the last two weeks there have been four national polls that have taken a look at a TrumpClinton
matchup – NBC News/WSJ, ABC News/Washington Post, Rasmussen, and
CNN/ORC – all show Donald Trump losing to Clinton by net nine-points.
• The Two conducted after last week’s Republican debate have Trump down by net elevenpoints,
and the most recent poll, the NBC/WSJ poll has Donald Trump down on the ballot to
Hillary Clinton by thirteen-points – Clinton’s 51% to Trump’s 38% -- definitely going in the
wrong direction.
• As concerning for Republican prospects if Trump were the Republican nominee in the fall,
three of these polls have Clinton at or above 50% of the vote, a watermark point in any
Presidential campaign.
Among the recent data on the image of Donald Trump with minority voters:
• Seventy-four percent (74%) of non-white voters in the most recent CNN-ORC national poll
have an unfavorable image of Donald Trump.
• A Washington Post-Univision Poll, conducted February 11-16, among Hispanic voters
nationwide found that eighty-one percent (81%) of Hispanic voters have an unfavorable image
of Donald Trump, including more than seven-in-ten (72%) of Hispanic voters who have a
very unfavorable opinion.
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On the ballot standing of Trump with Hispanic voters:
• Trump is the top choice of just seven percent (7%) of Hispanic voters when all the candidates
are offered.
• Trump is at sixteen percent support (16%) in a head-to-head match-up against Hillary Clinton.
• Trump’s claim that he could make New York and New Jersey into competitive states is
equally laughable:
• President Obama won sixty-three percent (63%) of the vote in New York in 2012, defeating
Mitt Romney by more than 1.6 million votes.
• In New Jersey, Barack Obama won fifty-eight percent (58%) of the vote, defeating Mitt
Romney by more than half a million votes.
These issues create a significant challenge for Republicans on a larger scale. The Republican Party is
facing a challenging battle for control of the U.S. Senate this cycle. There will be competitive races in
New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, and
Nevada. If Republican U.S. Senate candidates are on a ballot led by a Presidential candidate who falls
short with their base voters and angers swing and Democratic base voters, the GOP control of the U.S.
Senate in November will be very much at risk, which would also prevent the GOP from stopping any
Clinton appointee to the Supreme Court.
Can Trump win the November Election or is he Unelectable
Can Trump win the November Election or is he unelectable? That is certainly a question that seems to
be growing as each week of primaries and caucuses passes. The latest CNN/ORC poll brought more
focus to that question with their poll this week showing Donald Trump as the only Republican losing
to Hillary Clinton – 52% Clinton and 44% for Donald Trump. Other polls have been showing similar
results on a general election ballot. What is different in the CNN poll is that for the first time Clinton,
even with her name awareness being almost as unfavorable as that of Donald Trump, is receiving over
fifty percent of the vote in a matchup against a Republican
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In sum, any Republican Presidential candidate will face a significant electoral challenge this fall. But
this candidate, who is currently turning off more voters than he is turning on with the tone and tenor of
his campaign and divisive persona, clearly appears to be winning his battles for the Republican
nominating but losing the war for the White House in November.
Based on all of the data I have seen, the answer to the question "Does Donald Trump have a path to
victory in November?" is clearly "No". The question is, how many down ballot Republicans will he
take with him?

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[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

• Sixty percent (60%) of adults have an unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump, compared to
Hillary Clinton at a fifty-five percent (55%) unfavorable rating.
• Donald Trump’s negative are over fifty percent (50%) with Men (52%), women (68%), White
Voters (52%), non-White voters (74%), every age cohort even seniors (50%), Independents
(62%), and every region of the country.
• Trump is right side up with many of the voter groups that are key to the Republican base, but
even there his negatives are somewhat problematic – White Evangelicals (40%), Tea Party
supporters (34%), and even Conservatives (40% unfavorable).
• More immediate and most concerning is almost one-third (32%) of Republicans hold an
unfavorable image of Donald Trump.

Devastating.

[Chosen Daughter]

Devastating.

Exactly why Clinton encouraged Trump to run  Its a Democratic plant to sabotage the Republican election.  I am sure that Hillary is out of her mind excited at every insult and every threat from Trump.

[musiclady]

Exactly why Clinton encouraged Trump to run  Its a Democratic plant to sabotage the Republican election.  I am sure that Hillary is out of her mind excited at every insult and every threat from Trump.

Trump has always been a stalking horse for Hillary.

They're best buds.  Donald loves the Clintons.

If he's nominated, she's going to win the Presidency, and everyone who's paying attention or thinking straight knows it.

[andy58-in-nh]

Trump has always been a stalking horse for Hillary.

They're best buds.  Donald loves the Clintons.

If he's nominated, she's going to win the Presidency, and everyone who's paying attention or thinking straight knows it.

Donald's support is intensely personal and emotional.

And so, neither Reason, as employed in the service of the discovery of truth, nor Logic as exemplified by the impartial analysis of data will influence any minds fixed on other presumed means of receiving wisdom. 

Two plus two may equal anything, or nothing, if you are only willing to believe that some transcendent power may grant your wish to create your own reality.

And if a big enough mob happens to agree, then mass may equal not volume times density, but perhaps instead: validation, times denseness. 

[A-Lert]

Devastating.

68% of Republicans are favorable toward Trump. How many independents, libertarians and blue dogs are?

Why aren't Cruz, Rubio and Kasich doing better in polling and primaqries?

[libertybele]

Exactly why Clinton encouraged Trump to run  Its a Democratic plant to sabotage the Republican election.  I am sure that Hillary is out of her mind excited at every insult and every threat from Trump.

My thoughts for quite awhile -- Trump is a DEM plant to sabotage the Republican election.  It is absolutely amazing how so many Trumpsters have been duped!

[sinkspur]

Donald's support is intensely personal and emotional.

And so, neither Reason, as employed in the service of the discovery of truth, nor Logic as exemplified by the impartial analysis of data will influence any minds fixed on other presumed means of receiving wisdom. 

Two plus two may equal anything, or nothing, if you are only willing to believe that some transcendent power may grant your wish to create your own reality.

And if a big enough mob happens to agree, then mass may equal not volume times density, but perhaps instead: validation, times denseness.

One cannot be reasoned out of what one has not been reasoned into.

[musiclady]

Donald's support is intensely personal and emotional.

And so, neither Reason, as employed in the service of the discovery of truth, nor Logic as exemplified by the impartial analysis of data will influence any minds fixed on other presumed means of receiving wisdom. 

Two plus two may equal anything, or nothing, if you are only willing to believe that some transcendent power may grant your wish to create your own reality.

And if a big enough mob happens to agree, then mass may equal not volume times density, but perhaps instead: validation, times denseness.

These people definitely feel validated by the large crowds, regardless of the fact that the one we all agree is the enemy, Obama, drew even larger crowds.

And yes, Reason based on truth, and Logic based on analysis of data have no effect on the intense fervor with which they defend their love affair...

But what are those 'other means' by which these groupies 'perceive wisdom?'  It certainly isn't empirical, and it's as far away from spiritual that anything on earth has ever been.  What do they think is informing them to vote for and defend to the death arguably the most despicable human being to ever run for the Presidency, and snarl with irrational hatred against anyone who criticizes their darling?

It's bizarre.  We are in an alternate universe.....

[A-Lert]

The GOPers have brought Trump and all of his supporters upon themselves. They've lied, deceived, broken pledges and promises and continue to do nothing to solve the $18 trillion debt or secure our borders.

[Fishrrman]

Weird Figure...

... if you're going to put up drivel like this, couldn't you at least format it to be readable?

[240B]

Weird Figure...

... if you're going to put up drivel like this, couldn't you at least format it to be readable?

Agreed

I tried to read it but gave up. More effort than it is worth.

Trump is unelectable...yada yada yada...yeah, I get it. I've heard it many times before.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

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[NavyCanDo]

68% of Republicans are favorable toward Trump. How many independents, libertarians and blue dogs are?

Why aren't Cruz, Rubio and Kasich doing better in polling and primaqries?

Pulling that 68% number out of thin air?. Trumps high-water mark among Republicans never got close to the mid 30s.  Averaged just over 27% through January. 



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

[A-Lert]

Pulling that 68% number out of thin air?. Trumps high-water mark among Republicans never got close to the mid 30s.  Averaged just over 27% through January. 



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/trump_favorableunfavorable-5493.html

68% was derived from this posted by Weird Tolkienish Figure

almost one-third (32%) of Republicans hold anunfavorable image of Donald Trump.

But hey, if Trump is so unelectable why all the attention? Where is the positive promotion of Rubio, Cruz and Kasich? Could it be that people are fed up with the SOS?

[DCPatriot]

https://media.gractions.com/57C7B3422630ECF30F15C1141454F12E5FFFCA1A/5a4a5e8d-9d6f-4e19-bed4-b30e6f54944b.pdf

The point is/was....just supply the link if you're going to be too lazy or inconsiderate to the rest of us.   

[Scottftlc]

The point is/was....just supply the link if you're going to be too lazy or inconsiderate to the rest of us.   

The sewage will get deeper the nearer to the end they come.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

My feeling is that deep down inside you all know Trump has serious electability problems and that's why you're all cranky about the formatting even though I did supply a link in the original.

[A-Lert]

My feeling is that deep down inside you all know Trump has serious electability problems and that's why you're all cranky about the formatting even though I did supply a link in the original.

If he has serious electability problems why do you GOPers feel it necessary to insult and denigrate Trump and his supporters. Isn't that a waste of time and resources? Why not provide positive policies and accomplish ments of those you support?

[alicewonders]

If he has serious electability problems why do you GOPers feel it necessary to insult and denigrate Trump and his supporters. Isn't that a waste of time and resources? Why not provide positive policies and accomplish ments of those you support?

Good question A-Lert. 

[DCPatriot]

My feeling is that deep down inside you all know Trump has serious electability problems and that's why you're all cranky about the formatting even though I did supply a link in the original.

Stop deflecting.

You saw how the copy appeared on your monitor...yet you left it as it was..

[DCPatriot]

They said the same exact thing about Ronald Reagan in 1980.     

[Lando Lincoln]

I agree - the original post it s quite unreadable.

[sinkspur]

They said the same exact thing about Ronald Reagan in 1980.     

You compare Trump to Reagan?  You have GOT to be kidding!!

Reagan had spent 30 years thinking about conservatism and its implications.

Trump has changed parties six times in the last 18 years.

No comparison.

[NavyCanDo]

If he has serious electability problems why do you GOPers feel it necessary to insult and denigrate Trump and his supporters. Isn't that a waste of time and resources? Why not provide positive policies and accomplish ments of those you support?

Trumps accomplishments  - He's a businessman who makes deals and is really really rich.   I think you should all vote for George Soros because he is a far greater businessman, strikes far more successful deals,  and is six-times more wealthy than Donald Trump.  And they are both Liberal.