http://www.nationalreview.com/node/425515/print A Biden Run Would Complicate Hillary’s White House Strategy
By Jonah Goldberg — October 14, 2015
The scuttlebutt in Washington is that Vice President Joe Biden is going to throw his hat into the presidential race, which means there is at least a 50 percent chance that he will. I mean, when is the Beltway scuttlebutt ever wrong?
Under different conditions, I’d guess that, if he does announce, Biden has almost no shot at winning the Democratic primary, and that his candidacy could prove a gift to Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Historically, parties don’t hold on to the White House three elections in a row. FDR managed to do it, but he had special circumstances on his side: the Depression, war on the horizon, and an unprecedented, unrepeatable monopoly on political power.
In 1988, George H.W. Bush became the first sitting vice president to get elected straight to the presidency since Martin Van Buren in 1836. Bush’s victory, which was far from assured, rested on two pillars. First, Ronald Reagan was very popular — peace, prosperity, and a victorious end to the Cold War will do that. Second, Bush ran against Michael Dukakis, a politician so boring he made Al Gore look like Shaft.
RELATED: Is Joe Biden Really the Answer to Democrats’ Problems
In short, after eight years of almost any president, Americans tend to want a fresh face. That seems to be particularly true this cycle. Never mind the abysmal “wrong track” polling numbers; just look at the crowds Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are attracting.
That’s why Biden’s entry might not pose a real threat to Clinton, and could even help her. Vice presidents in general, and this one in particular, are ill-suited to promise change because they have to run on their record in the incumbent administration.
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