Republicans May Struggle to Keep Senate Majority in 2016

[mystery-ak]

http://www.newsmax.com/PrintTemplate.aspx/?nodeid=644310


Newsmax
Republicans May Struggle to Keep Senate Majority in 2016
Wednesday, May 13, 2015 11:28 AM

By: Courtney Coren

While the Republicans easily took the Senate in 2014, they do not have the same advantage in the 2016 election cycle, according to political analyst Charlie Cook.

The Senate seats Republicans won in the 2014 midterm elections were made to order: there were seven Democratic senators who were from states that former presidential candidate Mitt Romney won handily in 2012, an unpopular president to run against, and very few of their own seats that they needed to defend, Cook wrote in a report for the National Journal.

That will not be the case in 2016, he says.

Republicans have 24 seats that will need to be defended, while Democrats only have 10. All 10 Democratic Senate seats are all in states that President Barack Obama won in 2012, and seven states that are held by Republicans.

Those states are Florida, Illinois, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

One silver lining for Republicans is that the Senate seats up for re-election in blue states were not won by Obama by margins that were as wide as the red states won by Romney, where Democrats were up for re-election in 2014.

The reddest state with a Democratic senator up for re-election in 2014 was West Virginia, which Romney won by 27 points in 2012. By contrast, the bluest state up for re-election with a Republican senator is Illinois, which Obama won by 17 points.

Another silver lining for the GOP is that not all states with Republican senators up for re-election that were won by Obama in 2012 are necessarily competitive.

For example, it is very unlikely that Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley will lose in Iowa, even though the president won the Hawkeye State by 6 points in 2012.

In addition, the competitiveness of the other states will depend on who the Democratic challengers are.

Democrats and Republicans may break even on open seats up for re-election — the Democrats have three open seats with two that are in deep blue states, while the Republicans have two open seats, with only one that is considered competitive.

If Democrats want to reclaim the majority in the Senate, they will need to pick up four seats if a Democrat wins the presidential election, and five, if they don't.

[Bigun]

Republicans May Struggle to Keep Senate Majority in 2016

Why wouldn't they since their leadership has made it very difficult to distinguish between them and the Democrats they replaced?

[DCPatriot]

Total Bull Shiite!   

The 2014 mid-terms were supposed to be good for the Demoncrats too!   Ask Nancy Pelosi.   /s

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Why wouldn't they since their leadership has made it very difficult to distinguish between them and the Democrats they replaced?

Who in their right mind can't see a difference between McConnell and Reid?  Boehner and Pelosi? Walker and Hillary?  Cruz and Sanders?

[DCPatriot]

Who in their right mind can't see a difference between McConnell and Reid?  Boehner and Pelosi? Walker and Hillary?  Cruz and Sanders?

Eggsactly!   

[Longiron]

Why wouldn't they since their leadership has made it very difficult to distinguish between them and the Democrats they replaced?

Nailed it bu the Dems, Libs still control both houses under McCommel and Bonner? Most in both houses are just window dressing looking to stay their as a career!

[Relic]

I do my best to see things from alternate perspectives. I have friends who vote, but are moderate, and not political junkies. I know some of them voted Republican in 2014 because they were sick of Obama, (even though they voted for Obama). The average, moderate voter sees Obama using his pen and his phone, and little else.

Moderates swing from side to side trying to find someone who will actually fix something.

[Fishrrman]

Relic wrote above:
[[ Moderates swing from side to side trying to find someone who will actually fix something. ]]

I coined a term for them.
I call them the "waving wheat" voters, that bend to the prevailing political winds...

[Dexter]

Who in their right mind can't see a difference between McConnell and Reid?  Boehner and Pelosi? Walker and Hillary?  Cruz and Sanders?

Compare what actually gets done instead of what gets said and the difference becomes less obvious.

[Carling]

I do my best to see things from alternate perspectives. I have friends who vote, but are moderate, and not political junkies. I know some of them voted Republican in 2014 because they were sick of Obama, (even though they voted for Obama). The average, moderate voter sees Obama using his pen and his phone, and little else.

Moderates swing from side to side trying to find someone who will actually fix something.

You're already on record here stating that you would vote for Hillary Clinton over a "GOPe" candidate in 2016.

Which side are you on, Relic?  I don't think you're on my side.  Somebody who would vote for a Democrat over any GOP candidate seems like "moderate" to me.

[Dexter]

You're already on record here stating that you would vote for Hillary Clinton over a "GOPe" candidate in 2016.

Which side are you on, Relic?  I don't think you're on my side.  Somebody who would vote for a Democrat over any GOP candidate seems like "moderate" to me.

How far do you think the GOP will get without moderates on their side?

[Carling]

How far do you think the GOP will get without moderates on their side?

How far do you think a GOP candidate will go with "conservatives" like Relic voting for Hillary Clinton?

You're out of your depth with me, Troll. 

[Dexter]

How far do you think a GOP candidate will go with "conservatives" like Relic voting for Hillary Clinton?

Relic's voting inclinations are none of your business. You are doing a disservice to the GOP by making moderates feel like outsiders.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Compare what actually gets done instead of what gets said and the difference becomes less obvious.

Yeah?

That must be why we all remember rat taxcuts and fiscal discipline, and GOP gun bans and abortion funding.

Whatever.

[Dexter]

Yeah?

That must be why we all remember rat taxcuts and fiscal discipline, and GOP gun bans and abortion funding.

Whatever.

When was the last time Republicans shrunk the size of our government significantly?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

When was the last time Republicans shrunk the size of our government significantly?

Best I know, the government has never shrunk in size.  So by your criterion both parties are the same.  You win.

[DCPatriot]

Best I know, the government has never shrunk in size.  So by your criterion both parties are the same.  You win.

Once-Ler, you're on a roll this morning!   

Pretend it's a coffee toast!        OK....cappuccino     

[Relic]

You're already on record here stating that you would vote for Hillary Clinton over a "GOPe" candidate in 2016.

Which side are you on, Relic?  I don't think you're on my side.  Somebody who would vote for a Democrat over any GOP candidate seems like "moderate" to me.

"On record here"? What are you an attorney?

Get a grip. This is a forum. People post things. It's not like I'm a GOPe type that is running for president, ooops, IF I was running for president. And, if I was president, I would or wouldn't have invaded Iraq.

Go bother someone else.

[Relic]

How far do you think a GOP candidate will go with "conservatives" like Relic voting for Hillary Clinton?

You're out of your depth with me, Troll.

You are delusional. You have no "depth". And since Carling, esq. has me on record, show me where I say I'm a "conservative". I'm a citizen, trying to figure it out, and if a Democrat is better than a Republican, you are darn right I would vote for the best person.

[Bigun]

Best I know, the government has never shrunk in size.  So by your criterion both parties are the same.  You win.

DING! DING! DING!!! Under Calvin Coolidge the size of government really did shrink! That was the last time.

[rangerrebew]

How can that be?  Isn't Harry Reid still the head of the senate?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

DING! DING! DING!!! Under Calvin Coolidge the size of government really did shrink! That was the last time.

Thank you for correcting me Bigun.  So any conservatives want to trade a shrinking government for a stock market crash and great depression?

[Formerly Once-Ler]

Once-Ler, you're on a roll this morning!   

Pretend it's a coffee toast!        OK....cappuccino     

Glad you got a laugh out of it.

[Bigun]

Thank you for correcting me Bigun.  So any conservatives want to trade a shrinking government for a stock market crash and great depression?

If you believe that Coolidge was responsible for the stock market crash your education is severely lacking.

[Formerly Once-Ler]

If you believe that Coolidge was responsible for the stock market crash your education is severely lacking.

That is indisputable.  I am a product of the public school system.  I was under the impression Coolidge was the President during the stock market crash, but I just looked it up and I am wrong.  I'm pretty sure my history teachers blamed Coolidge.  Thank you again for correcting me.