The first woman theme DOES hold appeal. Remember there are more Independents than either democrats or Republicans.
So factor in ALL the democrat women, plus a sizable fraction of the independents, and even a few GOP women and she wins.
Do not underestimate the Clintons. On election day she will be not only a woman, but the woman who weathered continual attacks, by the vast right wing conspiracy.
She will be for Obama care, for everything single women and single mothers thrive on, for the little guy, against the big guys, ad infinitum.
Her opponent (male) will be against women and the little guy, only for the big guy.
That is the contest. Forget all the complex policy issues. They mean little, when gender, cult of personality, etc. are operating.