El-Sayed holds edge over Stevens in surprisingly close election
by Jared Gans and Joshua Feldstein - 08/05/26 7:21 AM ET
The heated Democratic primary for an open Michigan Senate was not the blowout that some polls predicted, underscoring the divide within the party.
Progressive Abdul El-Sayed holds a lead of fewer than 20,000 votes over Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) with more than 95 percent of the votes counted as of early Wednesday morning. El-Sayed appears to be favored based on the votes yet to be counted, but he will still significantly underperform expectations heading into primary night.
Polling of the race had been a bit mixed in recent weeks but increasingly suggested El-Sayed as the heavy favorite. The Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) polling average showed El-Sayed leading Stevens by 13 points in its final update before the primary.
Instead, Stevens was fueled in part by a dominant showing in Detroit to keep the contest close. DDHQ has not yet made a call in the race. The New York Times rates El-Sayed as very likely to win, while NBC News called the race for the progressive.
The primary has been one of the foremost examples of a proxy battle between the progressive and moderate wings of the Democratic Party, which has played out in various congressional primaries this year.
Progressives widely coalesced around El-Sayed, a former Wayne County health director who ran to the left with support for Medicare for All and abolishing U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Stevens has taken the centrist lane, branding herself as an effective legislator who can accomplish goals in a less flashy fashion.
The primary had been a three-person race for most of the contest with state Sen. Mallory McMorrow running in a middle lane between El-Sayed and Stevens. But she struggled to gain traction and dropped out, setting up the clear battle between the Democratic Party’s wings.
El-Sayed has the endorsements of Sens. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), the latter of whom initially supported McMorrow, while Stevens has widespread establishment support, including from retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), whom she’s trying to succeed.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) also supported Stevens.
The primary has also been a test of the electorate’s feelings about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. El-Sayed has been a sharp critic of Israel, accusing the country of committing genocide in Gaza and calling to end military aid. Stevens has criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but stopped short of El-Sayed’s positions.
Regardless of who wins, the results show the eventual nominee will have plenty of work uniting the party heading into November, which will be crucial in a battleground state that President Trump carried in 2024.
El-Sayed acknowledged the task before him in his address to supporters Tuesday night.
“However much we might disagree with our Democratic opponent, there is so much more that unites us than divides us,” he said. “And so to all of our supporters here tonight, watching on TV, tomorrow we begin to mend fences.”
The nominee will face former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.) in the general election. Rogers, a well-known figure in Michigan politics after having served more than a decade in the House, is coming off a narrow defeat in the state’s 2024 Senate race to Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D).
If El-Sayed holds on to win the nomination, it’ll give progressives the test case they’ve been looking for — whether a left-wing candidate like El-Sayed can win in a purple state, expanding the left-wing movement beyond blue bastions like New York City.
Progressives will also look to add to their wins in Michigan’s battleground 7th House District, where Will Lawrence, the co-founder of the Sunrise Movement, won Tuesday’s Democratic primary, setting up a high-profile race against GOP Rep. Tom Barrett.
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https://thehill.com/newsletters/morning-report/6010023-el-sayed-stevens-close-race-michigan-senate-democratic-primary/
