Immigration Projections: Only as Good as the Assumptions Behind Them

[rangerrebew]

Home  Immigration Projections: Only as Good as the Assumptions Behind Them
Immigration Projections: Only as Good as the Assumptions Behind Them
Less than meets the eye in Yale think tank’s productivity forecast
 
By Comson Cao on June 23, 2026

The Budget Lab recently released a report titled “Lower Immigration Means Lower Productivity Growth”. It is based on the following logic: lower immigration means fewer working-age people; fewer working-age people means fewer potential entrepreneurs; fewer entrepreneurs means fewer new firms; and fewer new firms means lower productivity.

(The Budget Lab describes itself as “a non-partisan policy research center dedicated to providing in-depth analysis of federal policy proposals for the American economy” and is affiliated with Yale University.)

Unfortunately, each link in the chain depends on assumptions that are far more contestable than the report implies.

Let’s start with the working-age population. Lower immigration means fewer people, but it does not tell us whether the country is less productive or wealthy per capita. Much of the argument for immigration as a demographic necessity quietly conflates population decline with population aging. The real concern is usually aging, since that means fewer workers supporting more retirees.

 https://cis.org/Cao/Immigration-Projections-Only-Good-Assumptions-Behind-Them

[Hoodat]

Immigration isn't the problem.  Importing a bunch of foreign freeloaders is the problem.  Stop handing out free shit, and you will end up with an entirely different class of immigrant - ones who work hard and become responsible, productive members of society who give back to the country that has provided them freedom and opportunity.