2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

[catfish1957]

Placeholder for 2026 Hurricane discussion, though individual storms impacting Briefers may require their own thread.

All the pundits have their picks out, but I for one have always gone with the tried and true methods of the late Dr.  William Gray of Colorado State.  And from their POV, it is going to be a slightly milder on average year.  Here are the tabular numbers.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

Looking at the tropics today....

1. There is a non-tropical low at 30N 60W, moving E slowly..  no problem there
2. ITCZ quiet
3. Strong luster of storms off east coast of Yucatan , but no apparent low forming,
4. Surface wind speeds and patterns strill have that late spring look in the Gulf of America.  Expect no tropical activity for at least for a few days there too,

Unless we see something surprising in the Caribbean, I think we are good for the balance of the week,.

[Wingnut]

Ima planning on NOT breaking out my Kevlar Hurricane screens this year!

[libertybele]

The Super El Nino is lurking and there are differences of opinion on how it is going to impact our weather.

Likely any storm that forms will be stronger because of the Super El Nino, yet Colorado State has reduced the predicted number of storms and hurricanes.

[libertybele]

Ima planning on NOT breaking out my Kevlar Hurricane screens this year!

You can thank us.  We always joked now that we have hurricane impact windows, sliders, and accordion shutters to make it easier to prepare, we won't need them.  Just like our generator -- we had it for over 15 years or so before we needed it.

[catfish1957]

The Super El Nino is lurking and there are differences of opinion on how it is going to impact our weather.

Likely any storm that forms will be stronger because of the Super El Nino, yet Colorado State has reduced the predicted number of storms and hurricanes.

Excellent question...  Here is CSU's take (cut/pasted)

 El Niño Southern Oscillation

At the interannual timescale, the prime driver of Atlantic tropical cyclone variability is generally considered to be El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO is driven by changes in ocean temperature in the tropical Pacific, where above average conditions (El Niño) in the Central and Eastern Pacific shift the convective activity in the tropical Pacific eastward, and modify the Walker cell throughout the tropics. The influence of ENSO on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is well documented and is understood to occur mainly through local changes in vertical wind shear: during El Niño (La Niña) conditions, the eastward (westward) shift in convection in the tropical Pacific leads to anomalous upper-level westerlies (easterlies) over the Atlantic, which then increases (decreases) the vertical wind shear, thus decreasing (increasing) tropical cyclone activity.

If you put any weight in this year, their theme is "The Year of the Shear".  And if the worst we deal with is T.S. speed winds,  I think we'll all be happy

[Cyber Liberty]

 

[catfish1957]

15 Jun 2026

NHC has placed a hashed grid of potential though small tropical development along the NW Gulf of America.  (30%). 

Looking at the wind sheer profiles of the Gulf, and seeing no real discernible low, I am not too confident we'll see much materialize here.  What is really important is the message I give to the people along the TX/LA gulf coast, and say 50-100 miles inland.  The low level moisture, plus general low pressure in the western gulf, and has given many times in the past, a training effect, where 10-15 inches of rain can inundate an area pretty easily, Storm form in the Gulf and move inland, and dissipate.   But after brief and intense deluges.  Stack a few these in certain locations?  Serious flooding is always a possibility. 

And if you do see a deeping wave or a depression form, those rainfall rates might be even higher

[Bigun]

15 Jun 2026

NHC has placed a hashed grid of potential though small tropical development along the NW Gulf of America.  (30%). 

Looking at the wind sheer profiles of the Gulf, and seeing no real discernible low, I am not too confident we'll see much materialize here.  What is really important is the message I give to the people along the TX/LA gulf coast, and say 50-100 miles inland.  The low level moisture, plus general low pressure in the western gulf, and has given many times in the past, a training effect, where 10-15 inches of rain can inundate an area pretty easily, Storm form in the Gulf and move inland, and dissipate.   But after brief and intense deluges.  Stack a few these in certain locations?  Serious flooding is always a possibility. 

And if you do see a deeping wave or a depression form, those rainfall rates might be even higher

We had over 2" overnight and it is still raining heavily in Huntsville.

[Cyber Liberty]

15 Jun 2026

NHC has placed a hashed grid of potential though small tropical development along the NW Gulf of America.  (30%). 

Looking at the wind sheer profiles of the Gulf, and seeing no real discernible low, I am not too confident we'll see much materialize here.  What is really important is the message I give to the people along the TX/LA gulf coast, and say 50-100 miles inland.  The low level moisture, plus general low pressure in the western gulf, and has given many times in the past, a training effect, where 10-15 inches of rain can inundate an area pretty easily, Storm form in the Gulf and move inland, and dissipate.   But after brief and intense deluges.  Stack a few these in certain locations?  Serious flooding is always a possibility. 

And if you do see a deeping wave or a depression form, those rainfall rates might be even higher

That's the kind of weather, while not being a Hurricane, can kill a lot of people, like all those kids at that campground.   

[catfish1957]

Unexpected early TS activity?

The NHC has issued a Troopical Storm Watch for mostly coastal areas from around Freeport to Morgan City. 



It doesn't seem early on that Winds are going to be an issue, but this is setting up a whole lot like I remember with Allison in 2001.  Large frothy moist Tropical Low moving slowly.  These are the kind that we see 20-30 inch rains.  Eyeballing this track, it looks like it might move 180 miles over 72 hours.

I'd suggest anyone near the coast of SW LA, or SE TX to review flooding precautions.  At this point..  (and pls,. keep up with new advisory). that only winds of 45kt are expected.  No problem there.  But I have seen what the likes of Allison Harvey can do.

Look at this swath of extreme moisture WNW axis near 30N.  If any kind of low taps into that....  watch out

[Luis Gonzalez]

Re: 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion

It's #^&#$ hot.

Nothing follows.

[libertybele]

A tropical storm  this  time of year is certainly not unexpected.  The weather forecasters have been predicting an usually wet summer along the Gulf Coast for months.  The 'super' El Nino is supposed to intensity rains and flooding.

Yes, hurricanes are a concern, but so are tropical storms that bring heavy amounts of rain and flooding.

[catfish1957]

Here is the first NHC advisory (cut/paste)....   I don't expect precipitation forecast, until the center of circulation chooses an initialization point,  What is so dicey with these kind of storms, is where they exactly form.  If it goes off shore, and is allowed 24-36 hours of development, we potentially could see a high end Tropical storm, or low end hurricane.  OTOH, if it chooses at the coast or slightly inland, wind won't be an issue at all.  But rain?  Watch out.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012026
1000 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026
 
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED FROM
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE....
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 98.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SW OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the northwestern
Gulf Coast from Sargent, Texas to Morgan City, Louisiana.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sargent to Morgan City
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 to 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.0 North, longitude 98.0 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
with an increase in forward speed is anticipated over the next
couple of days.  The disturbance should move offshore the Texas
coast tonight or early Wednesday, move roughly parallel to the upper
Texas coast later on Wednesday and move back inland in extreme
eastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana late Wednesday or early
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to gradually strengthen and could become
a tropical storm early on Wednesday.  Weakening is anticipated on
Thursday after the system moves back on land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.
 
RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with isolated higher totals around
12 inches through Thursday from the Mid to Upper Texas Coast through
much of Louisiana, central and southern portions of Mississippi and
Alabama, and the far western portion of the Florida Panhandle. This
could generate dangerous to life-threatening flash flooding.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero
 
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this potential tropical cyclone, see the companion storm summary at
WBCSCCNS1 with the WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area beginning early Wednesday.
 
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Bolivar, TX to Morgan City, LA...2-4 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by the Potential Tropical Cyclone are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions
along the northwestern Gulf Coast for the next couple of days.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
TORNADO: A tornado or two is possible through tonight from the
Upper Texas coast across southern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama
and the Florida Panhandle.

[libertybele]

It's #^&#$ hot.

Nothing follows.

Hottest summer I've experienced in FL in 30 years.  It is mid June and we are already in the 90's and we hit the 90's before noon. Dang hot. 

[libertybele]

Prayers up for our Briefers in TX and along the coast.   

[catfish1957]

Hottest summer I've experienced in FL in 30 years.  It is mid June and we are already in the 90's and we hit the 90's before noon. Dang hot.

A good entrenched Bermuda High often will suppress Atlantic side canes.  Down side of that is the heat. 

Most bothersome to those of us to the west,  when we see these June fronts and troughs which invariably give us some early season problems. 

[Bigun]

It's currently pouring rain less than thirty miles South of my location.