Live Thread: War With Iran Continues #5

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Good point!  I certainly can't improve on that!  We're all Armchair Generals now.

Ok you're right. Ra ra Trump. Cowboy up.

Great political discussion forum you got here.

[Right_in_Virginia]

They will, if 47 makes a Great Big Beautiful Deal™, when Iran completes its nuclear warhead and ICBM program. At that point, they will "a shit about this war garbage" as they melt, burn, and die of radiation sickness. Its either wipe them out now or face nukes on your head later.

Why the hell didn't Reagan nip this in the bud? 

[Right_in_Virginia]

What subject did you teach, professor?

@massadvj

ICYMI ...thanks @massadvj

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

We are on the internet, aren't we?

There's a contingent here that just wants us to discuss approved talking point in approved ways.

[massadvj]

Some here have quite a lot of military and even command experience. Don't belittle it.

I have no military experience. My PhD is in business administration, not military strategy. People can attack my "qualifications" all they want. I don't mind. I readily admit to not having the expertise and information that the experts have.

But I remind you: the "experts" got us into this mess. The only reason people attack my credibility is because they prefer not to respond to the arguments I am making. That is a badge of honor as far as I am concerned.

[Right_in_Virginia]

My PhD is in business administration, not military strategy.

Thanks.

[Cyber Liberty]

Ok you're right. Ra ra Trump. Cowboy up.

Great political discussion forum you got here.

Did I say rah ra Trump?  I don't recall doing that. 

[massadvj]

Why the hell didn't Reagan nip this in the bud?

Reagan had the good sense to stay out of the Middle East, and took the blows for "cutting and running" when provoked. He understood that the region is a timeless, bottomless pit of conflict that the USA is smart to avoid. He was truly an "America First" leader, and the best president in my lifetime.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Did I say rah ra Trump?  I don't recall doing that.

We're all just folks on the 'net. It's our government, I think we can have an opinion on what is going on no?

[Cyber Liberty]

Some here have quite a lot of military and even command experience. Don't belittle it.

If I disagree, does that mean I'm "trolling?"

[Bigun]

None. And neither do we.

The one thing we should have learned from Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan is that you absolutely must go in and physically take and hold the real estate. If the cost to do that exceeds the advantages, then we have to stay out.

As it is, we are depleting our military resources while China sits idly by, keeping their powder dry.

Trump should never have entered into this fight. But if he did, the plan should have included, at the very least, securing the Strait of Hormuz, and taking out Kharg Island. I still don't understand why we don't take Kharg Island militarily and hold it. Do we not have the military capability to do that? If not, then we obviously had no business initiating a bombing campaign.

And our president did say "Hold on! Help is on the way! and millions heard him! Nothing matters after that.

@massadvj @Right_in_Virginia

[Cyber Liberty]

We're all just folks on the 'net. It's our government, I think we can have an opinion on what is going on no?

Yup, that's why it's a nice little forum we have here! 

[Right_in_Virginia]

Reagan had the good sense to stay out of the Middle East, and took the blows for "cutting and running" when provoked. He understood that the region is a timeless, bottomless pit of conflict that the USA is smart to avoid. He was truly an "America First" leader, and the best president in my lifetime.

Are you saying Reagan was a visionary ----- right and smart to stand down for his 8 years at the helm rather than take any steps to prevent a nuclear armed Iran with missle capacity reaching the US homeland? 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Reagan had the good sense to stay out of the Middle East, and took the blows for "cutting and running" when provoked. He understood that the region is a timeless, bottomless pit of conflict that the USA is smart to avoid. He was truly an "America First" leader, and the best president in my lifetime.

You said it better than I ever could've.

[Bigun]

Reagan had the good sense to stay out of the Middle East, and took the blows for "cutting and running" when provoked. He understood that the region is a timeless, bottomless pit of conflict that the USA is smart to avoid. He was truly an "America First" leader, and the best president in my lifetime.

BS! When Iran blew up the Marine barracks in Lebanon Reagan should have completely reversed everything Jimmy Carter ever did in the region. Had he done so, ALL of this would now be ancient history.

[Right_in_Virginia]

And our president did say "Hold on! Help is on the way! and millions heard him! Nothing matters after that.

@massadvj @Right_in_Virginia

You know I still have a split disagreement with you on this @Bigun  ---- I agree Trump should not have said this.  I think he should have first corroborated Mossad's assessment of regime change with US Intelligence Agencies and assets before speaking.  I think his initial decision about this would have been different from the one he blurted out. 

Where we split completely is on the issue of military support for regime change.  I don't think it's our place and would rise in opposition if proposed.

[massadvj]

Are you saying Reagan was a visionary ----- right and smart to stand down for his 8 years at the helm rather than take any steps to prevent a nuclear armed Iran with missle capacity reaching the US homeland?

Yes. The Chinese don't want the Iranians to have nukes any more than we do, but they sold the Iranians the technology for the simple reason that we would inexorably get drawn in, deplete our military while the Chinese build theirs. We were getting suckered. Reagan understood that.

[Right_in_Virginia]

BS! When Iran blew up the Marine barracks in Lebanon Reagan should have completely reversed everything Jimmy Carter ever did in the region. Had he done so, ALL of this would now be ancient history.

      

[Bigun]

You know I still have a split disagreement with you on this @Bigun  ---- I agree Trump should not have said this.  I think he should have first corroborated Mossad's assessment of regime change with US Intelligence Agencies and assets before speaking.  I think his initial decision about this would have been different from the one he blurted out. 

Where we split completely is on the issue of military support for regime change.  I don't think it's our place and would rise in opposition if proposed.

It does not matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks at this point! The fact is that he DID say it and millions heard him! Nothing else matters. @Right_in_Virginia

[BobfromWB]

Israel could have been running this whole show... after all, they will certainly be the ones to face Iran's wrath. I'm not against Israel, I just think this whole thing is a clusterfuck. Trump could've and should have just supported Israel by proxy.

BS. Israel is the Little Satan, and the nearest target, but the USA is the Great Satan and the primary target. And so it has been for 47 years ...

[BobfromWB]

Why the hell didn't Reagan nip this in the bud?

Why the Hell did RR destroy the US commercial fishing industry?

[Bigun]

BS. Israel is the Little Satan, and the nearest target, but the USA is the Great Satan and the primary target. And so it has been for 47 years ...

ALL to be laid at the feet of the worst president of my lifetime! James Earl Carter.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Why the hell didn't Reagan nip this in the bud?

Besides subduing Ghaddafi, I seem to recall the USSR situation was taking up his attention at the time.

I also recall the Iraq/Iran conflict was going on and who at the time knew which side to support?

What he did with USSR far outweighs whatever he might have been able to accomplish in the ME, so he correctly identified the major issue at the time.

[massadvj]

It does not matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks at this point! The fact is that he DID say it and millions heard him! Nothing else matters. @Right_in_Virginia

I think Trump blurts out a lot of things. He keeps saying Iran is "defeated." But how can they be defeated if we cannot secure the Strait of Hormuz? He seems more interested in pacifying his MAGA base than he is in pacifying the remaining forces of Iran.

Bombing more targets is not going to cut it. If Trump wants to get out of this with a victory then he must use ground troops; but the congress has already put him on notice that he risks his presidency if he does that.

From the Iranian perspective, Bob Dylan said it best: "When you ain't got nuthin' you got nuthin' to lose."

[Right_in_Virginia]

It does not matter what you, I, or anyone else thinks at this point! The fact is that he DID say it and millions heard him! Nothing else matters. @Right_in_Virginia

I have no direct proof of this, but:   there's no Iranian underground to speak of (or wasn't earlier this year).  This is what forced Trump to reconsider "help is on the way". 

There are ways to help, other than militarily --- but, there has to be someone to receive it.

[BobfromWB]

BS! When Iran blew up the Marine barracks in Lebanon Reagan should have completely reversed everything Jimmy Carter ever did in the region. Had he done so, ALL of this would now be ancient history.

All he did was order the USS New Jersey to lob a few 16" shells into the Beqaa Valley and leave. Pointless. The February 1984 shelling by the USS New Jersey had significant political consequences, primarily accelerating the end of the U.S. military intervention in Lebanon and damaging American credibility in the region

[Bigun]

I think Trump blurts out a lot of things. He keeps saying Iran is "defeated." But how can they be defeated if we cannot secure the Strait of Hormuz? He seems more interested in pacifying his MAGA base than he is in pacifying the remaining forces of Iran.

Bombing more targets is not going to cut it. If Trump wants to get out of this with a victory then he must use ground troops; but the congress has already put him on notice that he risks his presidency if he does that.

From the Iranian perspective, Bob Dylan said it best: "When you ain't got nuthin' you got nuthin' to lose."

Interesting but totally irrelevant. Trump IS president and he did say what he said.

[BobfromWB]

Yes. The Chinese don't want the Iranians to have nukes any more than we do, but they sold the Iranians the technology for the simple reason that we would inexorably get drawn in, deplete our military while the Chinese build theirs. We were getting suckered. Reagan understood that.

Not the Chinese - it was the Germans that sold most of the advanced centrifuges to Iran.

[Bigun]

I have no direct proof of this, but:   there's no Iranian underground to speak of (or wasn't earlier this year).  This is what forced Trump to reconsider "help is on the way". 

There are ways to help, other than militarily --- but, there has to be someone to receive it.

At least forty thousand potential recipients no longer exist.

[Bigun]

Besides subduing Ghaddafi, I seem to recall the USSR situation was taking up his attention at the time.

I also recall the Iraq/Iran conflict was going on and who at the time knew which side to support?

What he did with USSR far outweighs whatever he might have been able to accomplish in the ME, so he correctly identified the major issue at the time.

Ronald Reagan was a great president who did great things, but no one bats a thousand. Not responding to what happened in Lebanon more strongly was a grave mistake that we continue to pay for.

[BobfromWB]

but no one bats a thousand

Especially if you are one of the ones that was a swing and a miss. Or in his case, just a plain betrayal of thousands and an entire cash making industry.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

@AdmSmith on TOS

This is the Middle East, not China or the western world.

The Middle Eastern countries, especially the Arabs who aggregated into countries as Bedouin tribes, do have a central authority but tribal customs mean they can operate as independent fiefdoms as well.

I recall working in Yemen and a local tribe decided to hijack at gunpoint a foreman working on a rig in the desert under the authority of the Yemeni government.  His car and belongings were stolen.  Governmental officials knew who had taken the car yet no official would set foot in the village where it was as the only authority in the village was the tribal authority.

Bottom line is the chart may map out Iran's central authority chain of command but does not accurately describe what really happens in Iran when decisions are made to launch a missile or to send out a boat.

Likely one reason why the ceasefire violations are made while negotions with the central authorities are underway.  It is a fragmented decision making.

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Especially if you are one of the ones that was a swing and a miss. Or in his case, just a plain betrayal of thousands and an entire cash making industry.

Might as well go ahead and say his name rather than beating around the bush, eh?

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2064737683570655474

[Right_in_Virginia]

At least forty thousand potential recipients no longer exist.

Can't post proof, but it's an open secret in DC that the between "7,000 and 40,000" dead needs further investigation and corroboration.  This is another time Trump may have gotten out over his skis. 

And, no, I don't like it one bit. @Bigun

[rustynail]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ZQSHeP7E_Q

[DCPatriot]

Trump should never have entered into this fight. But if he did, the plan should have included, at the very least, securing the Strait of Hormuz, and taking out Kharg Island. I still don't understand why we don't take Kharg Island militarily and hold it. Do we not have the military capability to do that? If not, then we obviously had no business initiating a bombing campaign.

Uh-huh...Give Iran the opportunity to execute another Beruit Marine barracks bombing...but with missiles instead of a suicide truck bomber crashing the perimeter....6 months before the Mid-Terms?

No thanks...keep hitting them with the Strait of Hormuz Seige.

[DCPatriot]

I think Trump blurts out a lot of things. He keeps saying Iran is "defeated." But how can they be defeated if we cannot secure the Strait of Hormuz? He seems more interested in pacifying his MAGA base than he is in pacifying the remaining forces of Iran.

Disagree with that POV.

I'm that MAGA voter who would vote for Pres. Trump even if he shot somebody in the middle of 5th Avenue.   

[mystery-ak]

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2064743445961560230

[libertybele]

https://twitter.com/EricLDaugh/status/2064743445961560230

From what I'm gathering by his comments; he halted the attacks because the stock market took a hit and gas prices went up.  So, it is about the economy for him and the mid terms.  Just my opinion.

[Idiot]

From what I'm gathering by his comments; he halted the attacks because the stock market took a hit and gas prices went up.  So, it is about the economy for him and the mid terms.  Just my opinion.

[catfish1957]

Phantom night time petroleum theft?  Piracy policies from POTUS?

I didn't vote for that. 

[IsailedawayfromFR]

Phantom night time petroleum theft?  Piracy policies from POTUS?

I didn't vote for that.

May not be right, but I seem to recall that was what was also done during the Iraq war as well.

Not done for the stock market and gas prices but to help pay for the war.

And down in Venezuela, we effectively been getting oil cheaply to help pay for that conflict too.

Seems the best approach when you take on an oil-rich country.  Crude is like cash.