The calm before the storm: Is the US preparing for another round of strikes on Iran?
US-Iran negotiations are framed as a path to peace, yet the terms on the table look more like a setup for a renewed attack than a durable deal
Published 21 May, 2026 12:14
Farhad Ibragimov
The calm before the storm: Is the US preparing for another round of strikes on Iran?
The world has entered a holding pattern ahead of what increasingly looks like a second round of confrontation between the United States and Iran. Officially, diplomacy is still alive: public statements continue to reference the possibility of a deal, while intermediaries in Pakistan, Qatar, and Türkiye are attempting to keep both sides engaged in negotiations. But judging by developments over the past several days, it is becoming increasingly clear that this is less about reaching a durable compromise and more about buying time before the next phase of escalation. The talks in Islamabad in April did not stop the conflict – they merely underscored how inevitable it may be. No breakthrough emerged, while disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s nuclear conditions remain at the core of the standoff. US President Donald Trump himself recently stated that he had planned to strike Iran on May 19 but backed off at the request of Gulf monarchies.
At first, there were legitimate reasons to believe that Washington – especially under Trump’s current political circumstances – had little interest in prolonging the conflict with Iran. First, fatigue with Middle Eastern wars is growing inside the US, alongside mounting criticism of unconditional support for Israel. Second, a prolonged war with Iran would carry political costs for Trump personally, undermining his image as a leader capable of quickly “ending” conflicts rather than getting dragged deeper into them. Third, policymakers in Washington clearly understand the limits of military force: airstrikes can damage infrastructure, hit military targets, and raise the costs for Tehran, but they cannot instantly dismantle Iran’s political system. The Iranian regime is not something that can simply be “taken down” in a single military campaign; it is deeply embedded within a complex network of institutions, security structures, ideological mechanisms, and regional alliances.
https://www.rt.com/news/640325-calm-before-storm-us-iran/
