Scorecard: How Well Does NOAA’s Hurricane Outlook Actually Perform? 26 Years of Forecasts vs. Reality
7 hours ago Anthony Watts
On Thursday, May 21, NOAA will hold a news conference at its Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland, Florida, at 11:00 a.m. EDT to announce its official 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook, the agency’s annual prediction of how active the coming storm season will be. Early forecasts from competing agencies, including Colorado State University and Tropical Storm Risk, are already calling for a somewhat below-normal season, with developing El Niño conditions expected to increase wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and suppress storm formation. But before the media takes NOAA’s numbers at face value and the inevitable “busier-than-normal season” headlines roll in, it’s worth asking: how good is NOAA actually at this? A look at 26 years of NOAA’s May seasonal outlooks versus what actually happened reveals a more nuanced picture; the agency hits its own stated forecast range roughly 69% of the time on named storms and hurricanes, just shy of its self-declared 70% confidence target, with a notable tendency to miss badly in the most extreme seasons, and a historical bias toward under-forecasting activity when the Atlantic is running hot.
Overall hit rate: NOAA’s May outlooks land within their stated range for named storms roughly 17 of 25 years; about 68%, just shy of their own 70% confidence target. The hurricane count accuracy is similar. That said, NOAA aims for a range (not a point forecast), so some “hits” are easier than others in wide-range years.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2026/05/13/scorecard-how-well-does-noaas-hurricane-outlook-actually-perform-26-years-of-forecasts-vs-reality/
