תמיר מורג Tamir Morag
@Tamir114
At this very moment, no one (quite possibly including President Trump himself) has any solid knowledge of whether we are heading toward an agreement between the U.S and Iran, or returning to a resumption of hostilities. I, of course, do not know either, but I tend to cautiously assess that despite the flurry of reports and headlines regarding a deal, a resumption of fighting remains the more likely option even now. The reasons for this are:
1. President Trump has positioned the issue of removing the uranium as his central banner, marking it as the indicator of victory or defeat in the war. At the moment, the Iranians are refusing to hand over the uranium.
2. Trump is looking beyond just gas prices, the midterm elections, and tomorrow’s headlines: At (nearly) 80 years old, he is also looking at what will be written about him in the history books. He knows that the right, non-populist decision is not to enter into an agreement with Iran under the terms currently on the table.
3. Trump knows that China is watching him. If he agrees to a deal that signals weakness, that message will be well-received in Beijing (as well as in Moscow), carrying a heavy price tag along with it.
4. Over the weekend, the New York Post - a newspaper Trump is quite fond of - reported that a terrorist acting on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) was arrested in Turkey while planning to assassinate his daughter, Ivanka. Trump also remembers that the Iranian regime attempted to plot an assassination against his own life, and for him, in the end, everything is (also) personal.
5. At this very hour, a clash of titans is taking place for Trump's ear. Contrary to some reports, he is speaking not only with the leaders of Pakistan, Turkey, and Arab nations, but also with Netanyahu. The value of this detail should not be underestimated. Furthermore, within the administration itself - alongside the "deal at any cost" faction led by Steve Witkoff - several very significant voices, most senior among them Marco Rubio, have Trump's ear and are presenting the dark flip side of the proposed agreement.
6. The simplest and perhaps most important point: Trump understands the danger inherent in the lethal combination of a radical Islamist regime, ICBM development, and a nuclear program. He will not want to be remembered as the person who allowed Iran to threaten New York, Washington, Boston, and the East Coast, effectively turning America into a hostage.
2:28 PM · May 23, 2026 · 1,597 Views
https://x.com/Tamir114/status/2058268913436147966