The decade Australia sleepwalked into an energy trap
By Jo Nova
Two trendlines and the climate distraction converged
Just before Easter, the Page Research Centre put out a policy paper that ought to rivet Australians.
We have so casually sleepwalked (sprinted) blindfolded to the edge of cliff. Twenty years ago we were self-sufficient in liquid fuels, then we got distracted trying to change the rain and clouds in 2100 AD. Meanwhile in 2013, the area of South East Asia under the potential control of China was starting to grow rapidly. It is only now, after we have closed 6 of 8 refineries, banned oil exploration and shale use in some states in an Ode to Gaia, but we find that at a moment’s notice, China could potentially put three quarters of our liquid fuel supply under threat.
“In an Asian war scenario, 76% of our liquid fuel requirements would be in immediate jeopardy.”
The situation in 2013 regarding China’s ability to control supply lines:
Map, South-East Asia
China’s area of denial capacity 2013
But the world is a different place in 2026:
Map, South-East Asia
China’s area of denial capacity 2025
How rapidly we ran towards the pit, closing refineries, assuming it didn’t matter even after China had been dishonest about and leaked a bioweapon, revealing a hostile intent, or at best a callous indifference to our health and welfare.
Figure 10 – Australian domestic liquid fuel demand and supply
Remarkably, we don’t use much more petrol than we did 50 years ago. But staggeringly we use nearly five times as much diesel.
Figure 13 – Comparison of Australian Consumption of major petroleum products in 1975 and 2025 | Page Research Centre
We are a diesel nation that would grind to a halt in days if the ships stopped arriving.
The two authors of the Page Research Report, Gerard Holland and Jude Blik, lay bare the four options we have, three of which aren’t much use:
1. Diversify our sources — (Good for peace-time, but likely to fall in a whole once a war breaks out).
https://joannenova.com.au/2026/04/the-decade-australia-sleepwalked-into-an-energy-trap/
