Geography as destiny
The events in the Strait of Hormuz in recent days remind us why geography is a determining factor in world affairs.
Bill Ponton | April 6, 2026
If there ever were a version of historical determinism that I could embrace, it would be one based on geography. Jared Diamond has made an eloquent argument for geographic determinism extending back into Paleolithic times in his book, Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fate of Human Societies. Peter Zeihan makes an equally compelling argument for it in modern history in his book, The Accidental Superpower: The Next Generation of American Preeminence and the Coming Global Disorder. He goes to great lengths showing how geography has shaped and will continue to shape the political, social, and economic destiny of nations.
That is why I am not surprised when geography becomes a determining factor in world affairs as with the Strait of Hormuz in recent days. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran have triggered a series of events that have constricted maritime traffic traversing the strait. As roughly 15 million barrels per day went offline, oil prices have surged more than 50%. Asian countries such as China, India, Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have been significantly impacted. For example, China imports about 10 million barrels per day, with a considerable portion coming from the Persian Gulf.
The USA is blessed in that it possesses a unique piece of real estate that allows it to remain aloof from global affairs if it chooses to do so. It has one of the world’s largest fertile plains in its Midwest with internal water transport via the Mississippi River—fortuitously surpassing every nation. With oceans on both sides, it is secure from invasion by another great power, and with Trump, its southern border is becoming secure against the Global South. It also has one of the greatest reserves of coal and, courtesy the shale revolution, a bounty of natural gas and oil. It is the best example of a nation that does not need the rest of the world, and can thrive in splendid isolation. Contrast the enviable geography of the U.S. with Great Powers like France, Prussia/Germany, and Russia situated across the expansive North European Plain. With no significant geographic barriers, they were never immune to invasion as Napoleon, Bismarck, Kaiser Wilhelm, and Hitler proved.
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