Colorado River forecast warns that just one-third of normal water could flow to Lake PowellAs a record-hot winter continues across much of the West, forecasters are dialing back estimates for how much water will flow into the Colorado River during the spring runoff.
The latest models show that the Colorado River is projected to deliver only about 2.3 million acre feet of water — about one-third of normal — to Lake Powell, the nation’s second-largest reservoir, this summer.
Colorado River Basin Forecast Center hydrologist Cody Moser said during a water briefing this week that if those projections were to bear out, that would be the fifth lowest amount of water delivered to Lake Powell in the past 63 years.
And water supply forecasts are likely to only get worse before they get better.
“I anticipate this water supply forecast trending lower, at least during the next two weeks,” Moser said, noting that forecasts are pointing to an extended dry spell across the Colorado River Basin.
The Colorado River Basin spans seven states and serves as the water supply for 40 million people. Lake Powell acts as a “bank account” of water that Lower Basin states can draw from during dry years and Upper Basin states add to after using their share of the Colorado River, according to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. The reservoir, and the Colorado River in general, have experienced ongoing shortages amid a water crisis in recent years.
The hot weather and low snowpack this winter have prompted water shortage concerns at a critical juncture. The Colorado River Basin states failed to reach an agreement by a critical deadline last month, kicking the question of how to manage the river and its important reservoir system to the federal government.
Across the entire Colorado River Basin, total precipitation this winter trended closely with last season, Moser said. While river basins in southern Wyoming and central Arizona have had above-normal precipitation since October, he said other regions have trended below average. The Colorado River Headwaters region in particular has stood out for having poor precipitation this winter...............
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