Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Former IMF economist: shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has virtually stopped.
Former International Monetary Fund economist Robin J Brooks stated that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively come to a halt, which can be considered a de facto blockade of one of the world’s key energy trade routes.
According to him, under normal circumstances, about 100 ships pass through the strait daily - roughly 50 in each direction. Around two-thirds are tankers carrying oil, petroleum products, and LNG, while the rest are cargo ships transporting coal, iron ore, and grain. However, since the start of hostilities on February 28, traffic has sharply declined to nearly zero and has remained at this level for more than a week.
Brooks notes that even with limited military capabilities, Iran can seriously affect shipping security. In his view, a few drones are enough to disable an oil tanker, making the risk for ships extremely high. Therefore, even with U.S. naval escorts and insurance support, a rapid return to previous shipping volumes is unlikely.
The situation is already affecting the global energy market. Brent crude oil prices have risen about 28% compared to the end of last week. According to Brooks, tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could impact the market even more than the Russia-Ukraine war, as this route plays a far more critical role in global oil supplies.
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8:57 AM · Mar 7, 2026 · 13.6K Views
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2030296720823763361