The CBO's Latest Report and the Choice Between Reform and Disorder
By Veronique de Rugy
Thursday, February 19 2026
The federal government will spend more on the costs of past borrowing than it spends on many of the programs the borrowing was supposed to fund.
Despite what progressives have been arguing lately, the United States does not have a tax problem. Federal revenues, even after last year's extension of the Trump tax cuts, are running above their historical average as a share of GDP. What America has is a spending problem so large that the Congressional Budget Office's latest 10-year outlook reads less like a fiscal forecast than a warning label.
Between now and 2036, the CBO projects $94.6 trillion in federal spending against $70.2 trillion in revenue, a decadelong deficit of $24.4 trillion. Outlays reached 23.1% of GDP in 2025, nearly two full percentage points above the 50-year average, meaning annual spending growth is outpacing the economy itself. Debt held by the public is projected to hit 101% of GDP this year, which will surpass the post-WWII record of 106% by 2030, and climb to 120% by 2036.
The Trump administration says it wants to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by the end of this presidential term, roughly half the current trajectory. The CBO's numbers show how far that ambition is from reality.
The cost of paying the interest is now the central story, and it's a grim one. Net interest outlays will rise from about $1 trillion this year to more than $2.1 trillion by 2036, when interest payments alone are projected to consume more than a quarter of total tax revenues. The federal government will spend more on the costs of past borrowing than it spends on many of the programs the borrowing was supposed to fund.
https://cfif.org/v/index.php/commentary/43-taxes-and-economy/7556-the-cbos-latest-report-and-the-choice-between-reform-and-disorder
