Lithuanian intelligence services National Threat Assessment 2026
1. Reduced Western pressure on Moscow would accelerate Russia's preparations for conflict with NATO;
2. Russia is expanding its military capabilities near NATO's eastern borders despite losses in the war;
3. Russia actively uses electronic warfare capabilities in Kaliningrad;
4. Russian military industry prepares for a new phase of expansion;
5. Russia increases pressure on Ukraine's supporters;
6. The GRU is changing the methods of conducting kinetic operations and expanding the range of targets;
7. The FSB is actively conducting intelligence activities against Lithuania by regularly recruiting individuals who travel from Lithuania to Russia;
8. Intensified Russia's UAV attacks against Ukraine have led to an increase in violations of Lithuanian airspace;
9. It is highly likely that the situation in the Baltic Sea will remain tense - Russia is determined to protect its commercial interests by any means necessary;
10. Russia rather adapts to an economic slowdown than changes its military ambitions;
11. During the strategic exercise Zapad 2025 Russia applied lessons learned in Ukraine;
12. Moscow tries to intimidate the West by creating the myth of the invincible Oreshnik missile;
13. Despite the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Russia will maintain its military capabilities in Syria;
14. Russia expands its activities in Africa to maintain its image as a global power.
https://www.vsd.lt/en/reports/national-threat-assessment-2026/
