Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 4, 2026
Excerpts:
Ukrainian forces damaged a Russian frigate and other Russian warships during March 1 to 2 overnight strikes against the Russian naval base in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Krai. A Ukrainian open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst reported on March 4 that the Ukrainian drone strike against the Novorossiysk naval base damaged PK-10 passive jamming systems, a TK-25 electronic warfare (EW) system, and illumination radars on the Russian Project 11356R Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate Admiral Essen.
The analyst assessed that the strike also likely damaged the frigate's main Fregat-M2M surveillance radar system. Sources in Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) told Ukrainian broadcaster Suspilne on March 4 that the Ukrainian drone strikes damaged the Russian Project 266ME Akvamarin-class (NATO Nastya-class) minesweeper Valentin Pikul, and the Project 1124M Albatros-class (NATO Grisha V-class) anti-submarine warfare (ASW) corvettes Yeysk and Kasimov in addition to killing 3 Russian sailors and wounding 14.
A source reportedly affiliated with Russian intelligence agencies claimed that the strike involved at least 200 Ukrainian aerial drones.
SBU sources told Suspilne on March 2 that the strikes also damaged the guidance radar of an S-300 air defense system, a Pantsir-S2 air defense system, and six of the terminal's seven oil tankers.
ISW initially reported on this strike in its March 2 update.
Russia is blaming Ukraine for a strike on a Russian tanker in the Mediterranean Sea, accusing Ukraine of “escalating” the war. Maritime security sources told Reuters on March 3 that the Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker Arctic Metagaz, which is under US and UK sanctions, caught fire in the Mediterranean Sea, with one source claiming without evidence that Ukraine carried out a naval drone strike against the tanker.
The Libyan Maritime Authority reported on March 4 that there were sudden explosions on the Arctic Metagaz, followed by a massive fire.
The Libyan Maritime Authority noted that the Arctic Metagaz was carrying 61,000 tons of LNG and completely sank roughly 240 kilometers off the coast of Sirte, Libya. The Russian Ministry of Transport accused Ukraine on March 4 of launching unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) from the coast of Libya to strike the Arctic Metagaz near Maltese territorial waters on March 3.
The Russian Ministry of Transport claimed that the tanker had departed from Murmansk with legally registered cargo. Russian officials accused Ukraine of “committing acts of terrorism” and of trying to exploit tensions in the Middle East to escalate conflicts, and threatened that Russia could retaliate by shutting down all shipping routes to Ukraine.
Russian officials frequently use the allegation of Ukrainian strikes to justify intensified strikes against Ukraine and to deflect blame away from Russia for stalled peace negotiations.
Russian forces are intensifying their use of drones, including Shaheds, at both the tactical and operational levels as part of their battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign. Russian forces have recently intensified their use of Shahed drones against Ukrainian frontline targets.
Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and EW expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov noted on March 3 that Russian forces are increasingly using Shahed drones to strike targets between 0 and 20 kilometers from the frontline.
This 20-kilometer zone is considered to be the tactical kill-zone (the area within 15-20 kilometers from the frontline where the saturation of tactical strike and reconnaissance drones poses an elevated risk to any personnel or equipment operating within), wherein Russian and Ukrainian forces largely operate smaller tactical systems such as FPV drones.
Russian forces may be using Shahed drones in frontline strikes because these drones can carry larger payloads than tactical drones, enabling Russian forces to damage or destroy more fortified structures.
ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are intensifying their BAI campaign in the immediate and near rear.
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2026/
