Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 3, 2026
Mostly Headlines:
Russia resumed its combined missile and drone strike campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on the night of February 2 to 3, following the brief moratorium on energy infrastructure strikes ...
Russia's overnight strike package contained an unusually high number of ballistic missiles, consistent with the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to stockpile missiles to maximize damage against civilian infrastructure ...
The February 2 to 3 strike demonstrates that Russia never intended to use the energy strikes moratorium to de-escalate the war or seriously advance the US-initiated peace negotiations ...
The short-term moratorium does not mark a significant Russian concession, however, as Russian forces continued to target Ukrainian logistics and infrastructure during the moratorium ...
The Kremlin continues to explicitly reject the Western security guarantees for Ukraine that aim to prevent another Russian invasion.The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) and Russian State Duma officials reiterated on February 2 and 3 the Kremlin's rejections of Western security guarantees for Ukraine, again labeling such guarantees as “unacceptable” for Russia and stating that Russia would view foreign troop deployments to Ukraine as “legitimate targets.”
Russian State Duma deputies explicitly stated that Russia “cannot agree” to US and European security guarantees and claimed that the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine could lead to a third world war and direct military conflict between nuclear powers.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has recently stated that US-Ukrainian security guarantee agreements are ready for the parties to sign, and Kremlin officials are likely using narratives about a possible escalation leading to a nuclear war to push the United States to refuse to sign the security guarantees document out of fear.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is very unlikely to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine or elsewhere, and that such threats are part of the Russian cognitive warfare effort to undermine the provision of Western security guarantees for Ukraine ...
The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its commitment to its original war demands for a peace settlement in Ukraine, particularly those that aim to destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), ahead of the next round of the US-Ukraine-Russia talks in Abu Dhabi ...
The Kremlin continues to weaponize religion to demand restrictions on Ukraine's sovereignty, despite Russia's own systematic religious repressions in Russia and occupied Ukraine ...
The UOC MP is not an independent religious organization, but rather an extension of the Russian state and an instrument of Russian hybrid warfare ...
The Kremlin continues efforts to distract attention from and secure concessions in the upcoming February 4-5 peace talks in Abu Dhabi, which will coincide with the expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) on February 5 ...
The Kremlin has similarly been trying to use the prospect of US-Russian economic deals to persuade the United States to give in to Russia's demands about Ukraine...
The Kremlin continues to attempt to disguise and dismiss the economic impacts of its costly war in Ukraine, Western sanctions, and poor economic policy decisions ...
India is reportedly planning to curb its imports of Russian oil, which would likely further strain the Russian budget and deficit and hinder Russia's ability to fund its war effort without more economic consequences ...
Russian forces are starting to use Gerbera drones as “motherships” to carry strike or reconnaissance drones deeper into the Ukrainian rear. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) advisor on defense technology and drone and electronic warfare (EW) expert Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov reported on February 3 that Russian forces used a Gerbera drone as a mothership drone to carry a first-person view (FPV) drone for the first time, presumably in Ukraine.
Flash stated that Ukrainian forces have not been able to find the original FPV drone, so it is unclear if the FPV drone was a strike or reconnaissance drone. A Russian milblogger claimed that Gerbera drones (which are the much cheaper decoy version of Russia's Shahed/Geran drone) can fly 300 to 600 kilometers.
Russian forces have employed other drones, like Molniya fixed-wing FPV drones, as motherships, including to conduct strikes against Zaporizhzhia City in early October 2025.
These drones have significantly shorter ranges than Gerbera drones. Russian forces are trying to leverage Gerbera’s already long range to deploy smaller FPV drones further into the rear. Russian forces have also been increasingly employing mothership drones to conduct reconnaissance to enable precision strikes against Ukrainian training grounds, air defense systems, rocket launchers, manpower concentrations, and moving targets in the Ukrainian rear.
Gerbera mothership drones will allow Russian forces to deploy reconnaissance drones even deeper into the Ukrainian rear, increasing the number of high-value and difficult targets for Russian forces to strike. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to use air defense systems to down these small FPV drones in the deep rear, emphasizing Ukraine's need for interceptor drones and point-defense air defense systems, as EW systems are likely insufficient to defend all Ukrainian infrastructure against a geographically pervasive threat.
An unidentified drone recently crashed near a Polish military facility ... an unspecified source stated that Polish authorities suspect that the drone was a reconnaissance drone scanning antenna arrays and that Polish forces were “helpless” and could not stop the drone ... The gendarmerie reported that preliminary findings indicate that the drone did not have a memory or SIM card. Polish authorities have not identified the actor responsible for the incident, but other European authorities have suspected Russia in other drone incidents over European military infrastructure in recent months.
ISW continues to assess that Russia is engaged in its “Phase Zero” effort - the informational and psychological condition-setting phase - to prepare for a possible NATO-Russia war in the future.[55]
Belarus continues to pursue military cooperation with the People's Republic of China (PRC) ...
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-3-2026/
