Meteorologist's dire warning as arctic bomb to blast up to 20 INCHES of snow across bulk of America:

[libertybele]

High 69F. [/b] Winds SW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall near a half an inch.
Sunday Night
Low 32°F

Huge swing.  Me no like!

Down south here we were at 34 the other night - just above freezing with enough wind to knock over my golden dewdrop tree.

I don't like it either, but better than a cane.  Much better.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

As the days go by  our snow totals keep upping... figures. 

[libertybele]

For y'all up their in the Snow and Ice Cone of uncertainty, I hear the stores are sold out of toilet paper.

.... and paper towels ....

[libertybele]

2" of ice is practically impossible. (puts meteorologist hat on)

In order to get ice (freezing rain), you have to have a very specific atmospheric setup: a narrow layer of below-freezing air at the surface, another layer of warmer than freezing air above that, and an overall atmosphere that is conducive to convection to wring the water vapor out of the atmosphere. That kind of setup is inherently unstable. For one, when water freezes, it releases latent heat into the atmosphere around it. Dump a substantial amount of freezing rain into that shallow layer and it eventually warms up enough that it reaches equilibrium. Not to mention the sheer amount of liquid coming down pushes and mixes the air around it.

Thanks for the info @jmyrlefuller

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Sometime in the 2000's NH had a nasty ice storm, people lost power for like weeks and weeks and weeks.

[jmyrlefuller]

The other thing is that a lot of the forecast models we use don't always handle all of the physics scenarios and have to simplify some of the calculations. That especially comes into play when there's a complex system like this where just a little bit of a difference in any direction can change the outcome drastically. This storm we're talking about is still a few days out. From my experience forecasting, and admittedly it's been a few years since I've done this regularly, that 4-6 day window is notorious for being imprecise.

The data I am looking at does indeed look like this could be a significant ice storm generally along the mid-South. That time frame is only now starting to come into range of the shorter-range models (out 2-3 days). which generally have higher resolution and handle the complex physics better.

The other caveat, though, is that, well, this is the south we're talking about. The ground is inherently warm, and that below-freezing layer you need for freezing rain usually happens when the air has already been below freezing for at least a few days and the ground is frozen. We don't have that scenario here. So if there is an ice storm, it's more likely to be in the form of graupel or sleet pellets that freeze in the air.

[240B]

Checked on my CB radio, my battery backup power, my portable TV with antenna, and my multiband survival radio.
I have more food and general supplies than I could use in a year. All set, just counting down to the blackout.

[Sighlass]

2" of ice is practically impossible. (puts meteorologist hat on)

In order to get ice (freezing rain), you have to have a very specific atmospheric setup: a narrow layer of below-freezing air at the surface, another layer of warmer than freezing air above that, and an overall atmosphere that is conducive to convection to wring the water vapor out of the atmosphere. That kind of setup is inherently unstable. For one, when water freezes, it releases latent heat into the atmosphere around it. Dump a substantial amount of freezing rain into that shallow layer and it eventually warms up enough that it reaches equilibrium. Not to mention the sheer amount of liquid coming down pushes and mixes the air around it.

Thanks @jmyrlefuller ... some models now saying this is moving Northward and less chance for us... as much as I hate to admit it @Hoodat may have the last laugh saying this would happen, while I dug in with my screaming chicken act.

Just in case, I filled up 5 gallons of kerosene for backup and another load of wood. Kerosene was 7.00 a freaking gallon. Store gallons were $10.00 a gallon and most 3 places for kerosene were sold out.

[berdie]

I will not lie. I get severe anxiety with these forecasts. Icemegdon '21 left me with PTSD.  That kinda causes me to be angry. lol. AND double up on my BP meds.

I almost want to leave and go to Fla or Cali for a week or so. But I can't leave my house. The pipes might freeze and flood the house. I've done all I can to prepare. The propane delivery did not arrive (another BP pill). The lady at the company tells me not to worry...they will be here before the freeze.

I really hate getting old and worrisome and what if? in my imagination.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Checked on my CB radio, my battery backup power, my portable TV with antenna, and my multiband survival radio.
I have more food and general supplies than I could use in a year. All set, just counting down to the blackout.

Good choice for the radios, cb, satphones, various FM (FRS) mode and Ham radio band radios are good. One thing I don't have is a generator... i've never needed one.

[libertybele]

I will not lie. I get severe anxiety with these forecasts. Icemegdon '21 left me with PTSD.  That kinda causes me to be angry. lol. AND double up on my BP meds.

I almost want to leave and go to Fla or Cali for a week or so. But I can't leave my house. The pipes might freeze and flood the house. I've done all I can to prepare. The propane delivery did not arrive (another BP pill). The lady at the company tells me not to worry...they will be here before the freeze.

I really hate getting old and worrisome and what if? in my imagination.

I'm the same way @berdie -- I worry -- relying on what someone tells me, leaves me unsettled.  You can always wrap your pipes (Home Depot or Lowes sell foam wraps for pipes) -- I did it here a couple of years ago when we got a freeze. ... or you can let your water trickle so that pipes don't freeze ....

You've done all you can to prepare -- pat yourself on the back and indulge in something you've been craving. 

Nah, you may be getting older, but I'd say wiser as well.

P.S. Praying that you get your propane delivery in time  (Think positive)!

[libertybele]

Checked on my CB radio, my battery backup power, my portable TV with antenna, and my multiband survival radio.
I have more food and general supplies than I could use in a year. All set, just counting down to the blackout.

 

[240B]

Good choice for the radios, cb, satphones, various FM (FRS) mode and Ham radio band radios are good. One thing I don't have is a generator... i've never needed one.

The radio has all the emergency bands for government weather updates and news. It is a blessing because it breaks the silence and makes us feel 'connected'.

I am very lucky to have a gas stove. No matter what happens, I don't have to worry about heat or cooking.

[roamer_1]

I will not lie. I get severe anxiety with these forecasts. Icemegdon '21 left me with PTSD.  That kinda causes me to be angry. lol. AND double up on my BP meds.

I almost want to leave and go to Fla or Cali for a week or so. But I can't leave my house. The pipes might freeze and flood the house. I've done all I can to prepare. The propane delivery did not arrive (another BP pill). The lady at the company tells me not to worry...they will be here before the freeze.

I really hate getting old and worrisome and what if? in my imagination.

Worst case, shut off your water and open every spigot, including any hose bibs That leaves your hot water heater, and little else. You can shut off and drain your hot water heater too, but that can get a little technical. After that, pour a dollop of Rv antifreeze down all your drains and toilets.

Fixed.

Now you have to live out of bottled water and throw it out in the yard till the storm passes.

A composting camp toilet (wood shavings and a 5 gal bucket), and a big ol wad of down comforters, a couple bags of Snickers Fun Size, a camp stove, and some Chef Boyardee Ravioli, and the big Little Buddy propane heater, and you're all set. Handywipes for an alcohol bath if it is looking like more than a week...

You'll be fine. 

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

It got down to -15 a few years ago, no frozen pipes but my old well quit working, we dug out a new well with a submersible pump, was a good opportunity for the upgrade. Here in NH they run all the pipes through the middle of the house by code I think. If you have a shower spigot on an outer wall it's suscetible. No reason for that IMO.