Democrats are poised to take the House, but don’t expect a blue wave
by Douglas Schoen and Carly Cooperman, opinion contributors - 01/05/26 8:30 AM ET
After a slew of wins in November, Democrats are entering 2026 feeling hopeful and ready to take back the House come midterm season. And while they’ll likely do just that, the looming idea of a 2018-style blowout seems to be getting further and further out of reach.
To be sure, conditions certainly favor Democrats: historical trends, increasing frustration with the Trump administration and encouragement from the gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia all point to a Democratic majority in the lower chamber.
That said, it is critical not to overstate the depth of this so-called blue wave; while it may resemble 2018 at first glance, the simple fact is that it will beessentially impossible for Democrats to flip 40 seats as they did on that occasion.
Indeed, the battlefield appears to be smaller than ever before. Thanks to partisan gerrymandering, once-competitive districts have now become easy targets that fundamentally prevent a truly massive seat haul from actually panning out.
Looking back to 2018, about three-quarters of the seats that Democrats flipped were in the competitive zone where President Trump had won by less than 5 points. This time around, the competitive zone is not nearly as populated. There are only 14 Republican-held toss-up seats, so a 40-seat pickup should be barred from Democrats’ expectations altogether.
Put another way, even if they win enough seats to flip the House, the Democrats will likely end up with a slimmer majority than they had in 2018. The anticipated blue wave will seem to have fallen short.
In reality, though, a landslide along the lines of 2018 was never truly in the cards for Democrats — the redistricting wars in Texas and California virtually made sure of that.
At Trump’s request, Texas redrew their congressional map, creating several safe Republican districts from solid Democratic ones and making two battleground seats held by Democrats more GOP-friendly. In retaliation, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) helped pass Prop. 50, which offset Texas’s map rigging but also sparked a gerrymandering arms race across the country.
With fewer swing districts come fewer opportunities for big gains. Wave elections require wave maps. Unfortunately for Democrats, today’s map simply isn’t built for one.
However, the absence of a blue wave does not equate to the absence of a Democratic victory next November. Recent polling from Quinnipiac University shows that 47 percent of voters say they want the Democratic Party to win control of the House, whereas only 43 percent say the same for the Republican Party.
Even more optimistically, AtlasIntel found that 54 percent of Americans say they are more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in their district than the Republican (38 percent).
more
https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/5670071-blue-wave-slimmed-2026/
