December 10, 2025
Don't book the dance hall just yet
By Silvio Canto, Jr.
There is a lot of talk about the elections next November. A lot of pundits are correct in saying that the incumbent usually loses seats or the whole House, i.e. Obama in 2010 or Clinton 1994. In Obama's case, it came less than two years after walking on water to the Oval Office. And it's true that Trump took a beating in 2018. So, the pundits are right that the incumbent has his work cut out looking ahead to the midterms.
What makes 2026 so unpredictable is that Trump is unpredictable. Trump is like the cat with 30 lives. Don't bet against him because you might lose.
The latest polls show just how confusing things are. The new generic average has Democrats plus 3.7%. How many seats would that translate to next November? Not many. It's no wave if that's what the Democrats are wishing and hoping for. In fact, given redistricting it may not be enough to win the House. If they do win the House, it will not be a wave or mandate.
It may actually turn into a nightmare for a Speaker Jeffries because such a victory could embolden the Mandani wing rather than the moderates.
The Trump approval number is weak but the latest Harris has him at 47%. The overall RCP average is down almost 10 but Harris may be picking up a movement in the right direction.
more
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/12/don_t_book_the_dance_hall_just_yet.html
