The Hemisphere’s Worst-Kept Secret: Everyone’s Planning for Maduro’s End — Except MaduroThe Last Wire Special Report
CARACAS — The rumor started small, like smoke curling from an abandoned factory chimney. By December 5, 2025, it had grown into a blaze: “Elements within the Cuban regime have contacted U.S. officials about a Venezuela without President Nicolás Maduro.” The story landed via [url=https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/elements-within-cuba-have-contacted-us-officials-about-maduro-sources-say-2025-12-05/?utm_source=chatgpt.com/]Reuters, sourced to anonymous officials, which in political journalism is code for: trust us, or go home and drink your coffee alone.
Two days later, Havana shot back. The Cuban foreign ministry called the report “absurd and false,” a denial as sharp and fast as a switchblade flicked across a bar table. (
Reuters) That’s the standard choreography in Caracas: whisper, leak, deny, repeat. The dance is predictable — and deadly for anyone who steps on the wrong foot.
Who’s Playing the Hands?Cuba has been the quiet puppeteer behind Venezuela’s security apparatus for decades. Cuban operatives embedded inside the military and intelligence networks have shaped strategy, safeguarded loyalty, and funneled influence across borders. The December leak suggests that some faction in Havana might be contemplating a post-Maduro future. But a government serious about removing a head of state discreetly would probably skip the anonymous-sources PR stunt.
Maduro is reportedly more paranoid than a cat in a room full of rocking chairs. Intelligence reports cited by outlets like
The New York Post indicate he’s shuffling sleeping arrangements, switching phones, and relying heavily on Cuban security personnel. The man has survived protests, blackouts, collapsing oil revenues, and sanctions. Now, according to whispers in diplomatic corridors, he fears betrayal from the very allies he depends on for survival.
The United States continues to flex its muscle. A growing naval presence in the Caribbean, repeated strikes on vessels allegedly involved in narcotics, and bipartisan pressure to hasten a post-Maduro scenario signal that Washington is quietly weighing options — some strategic, some kinetic. (
Reuters)
China, ever the silent creditor, watches with spreadsheets rather than sniper rifles. Beijing has long invested in Venezuelan oil, arms, and geopolitical leverage. Reports suggest Caracas has reached out to Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran for support amid growing U.S. pressure. This appears more like insurance than an execution order. (
AA News)
Facts vs. SmokeWhat we know:
- Cuban elements allegedly contacted U.S. officials about Maduro’s post, per Reuters.
- Havana denies any such contacts (Reuters).
- Maduro has reportedly fortified his personal security and grown increasingly suspicious (NY Post).
- Caracas is seeking support from global allies amid U.S. military presence (AA News).
What remains unknown:
- Who exactly in Havana reached out? No names. No ranks. Just “elements within.”
- What did the contacts entail? Strategic contingency? Escape planning? A polite suggestion that Maduro retire gracefully?
- Are these real fractures inside Cuban power, or carefully timed leaks?
The Dangerous TruthIf you’re betting on assassins, hit squads, or shadow orders, the public record offers nothing. What exists is chatter, denials, and speculation.
The real danger isn’t bullets. It’s uncertainty. Every whisper, every leak, every diplomatic denial pushes Maduro, Havana, Washington, and Beijing to adjust their positions, sometimes imperceptibly, sometimes violently. And in this theatre of shadows, certainty is the rarest commodity.
Caracas is alive with rumor, paranoia, and the quiet repositioning of players — the kind of movement that will decide whether Maduro stays, flees, or finds himself sidelined. In the end, the man who survives isn’t necessarily the strongest or the cleverest. He’s the one who understands the rumors, the leaks, and the theater enough to play along — and maybe, just maybe, get out alive.
Because in Latin America’s great geopolitical game, the first casualty is always truth, and the second is anyone who believed the whispers were safe. — Gonzo
