The Midterm That Broke The Rules—and What It Means For 2026.................From 2002 to the 2026 midterms
Today the United States is again heading toward consequential midterm elections. President Trump has returned to the White House for a non-consecutive second term, and narrow Republican majorities in both chambers have allowed his administration to advance much of its agenda. Those majorities will be on the ballot in 2026, just as Democratic and Republican majorities before them have been tested again and again.
Analysts across the political spectrum expect many familiar midterm dynamics to appear: voters using the election to express a view on the president’s performance, the state of the economy, the tone of national politics, and the basic question of whether power in Washington feels balanced or lopsided. None of that depends on party label. It is built into the structure of our system.
History tells us that voters typically vote for change, evidenced by the president’s party having lost seats in the House of Representatives in 18 of the past 20 midterm elections since World War II.
The point of looking back at 2002 is not to relive a partisan victory or to offer a blueprint for one side in 2026. It is to remind leaders in both parties—and the public—that structural forces are very strong, but not absolute. Candidate quality, seriousness, and the way campaigns are conducted still matter...................
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billfrist/2025/12/04/the-midterm-that-broke-the-rules-and-what-it-means-for-2026/
