Sabotage as a "New Normal"
November 19, 2025 by Rick Chersicla
“Efforts will be made in such countries to disrupt national self-confidence, to hamstring measures of national defense, to increase social and industrial unrest, to stimulate all forms of disunity.” –George Kennan, The Long Telegram
Since 2022, there has been a spate of high-profile sabotage attacks across Europe: a suspicious fire in Berlin, explosions at a Bulgarian arms factory, and damage to undersea communications cables chief among them. This brazen campaign of sabotage, presumably perpetrated or sponsored by Russian security services, proxies, and the occasional unwitting, manipulated recruit, are at a “level previously unseen” according to German foreign intelligence service director Bruno Kahl. Similarly, Ken McCallum, the head of Britain’s MI5, said that “The GRU in particular is on a sustained mission to generate mayhem on British and European streets.” Russian-backed attacks on energy and transportation infrastructure are not limited to Ukraine, but now also extend across Europe.
While the frequency of incidents has slowed, neither NATO nor Ukraine are likely to see a total cessation of events given the relatively low risk, high reward nature of modern sabotage. Acts of sabotage are likely to persist as a characteristic of the European security environment and anticipate upticks leading to elections and other key events. Sabotage is the new normal.
Positive but Misleading Trends
Sabotage has, as of late, been used synonymously with the somewhat murky and contentious term Russian hybrid operations, inviting ambiguity and vagueness. “Hybrid warfare” can range from the spectacular—such as the 2024 attempted assassination of Germany’s Rheinmetall CEO—to the disruptive but more criminal in nature, such as the acts of arson against property of former British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in addition to sabotage. However, it is important to isolate the growing pattern of Russian-backed sabotage with a precise definition in order to identify its distinctive effects and purposes.
https://irregularwarfare.org/articles/sabotage-as-a-new-normal/
